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Align Technology (ALGN) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Align Technology. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Align Technology’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$6.98B
from $3.86B
FCF FY30
$715.7M
Margin 10.3%
Enterprise value
$9.52B
2.5× LTM revenue
Equity value
$10.56B
Net debt -$1.04B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
12.6%
-10.0%baseline 12.6%40.0%
Gross margin
71.7%
5.0%baseline 71.7%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
7.0%
0.0%baseline 7.0%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Align Technology forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does Align Technology do?+

Align Technology is a global medical device company that designs, manufactures, and sells the Invisalign system of clear aligners, iTero intraoral scanners, and exocad CAD/CAM software. The company operates a vertically integrated, mass-customisation business model, leveraging advanced 3D printing and digital treatment planning.

How does Align Technology generate its revenue?+

Align Technology primarily generates revenue from its Clear Aligner segment, which accounts for approximately 80% of its total revenue. The remaining 20% comes from its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment, where iTero scanner placements drive future clear aligner utilization.

What are the key capital expenditure trends for Align Technology?+

Historically, Align Technology's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue has been 5% to 8%, now normalizing closer to 5%. Approximately 70% of this capex is growth-related, focused on new 3D printers, software development, and facility expansion to reduce freight costs and turnaround times.

What is Align Technology's working capital profile?+

Align Technology typically exhibits a negative or slightly positive net working capital as a percentage of revenue, benefiting from deferred revenue. Its Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) ranges from 60 to 70 days, while Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) is 40 to 50 days.

Can I download a financial model for Align Technology (ALGN)?+

Yes, a comprehensive Excel financial model for Align Technology (ALGN) is available for download. This model provides an equity valuation and scenario planning tool, enabling analysts to forecast earnings and cash flows through FY2030.

What are the main assumptions used in the Align Technology financial model?+

Key assumptions in the Align Technology financial model include a Revenue Growth rate of approximately 12.55% and COGS as a percentage of revenue around 28.27%. Other significant inputs cover R&D, SGA, and D&A as percentages of revenue, along with a 21% tax rate.

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