Deckers Brands Financial Model
Consumer Goods Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
Deckers Brands is a global footwear, apparel, and accessories designer and distributor, best known for its powerhouse brands UGG and HOKA.
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
This model projects the three-statement financials and intrinsic valuation of Deckers Brands (DECK) to determine whether the market is accurately pricing the explosive growth of the HOKA brand and the sustained resurgence of UGG, aiding equity analysts in generating a buy/sell/hold recommendation.
Deckers Brands is a global footwear, apparel, and accessories designer and distributor, best known for its powerhouse brands UGG and HOKA. The company operates a multi-brand portfolio that targets both the premium lifestyle and high-performance athletic markets.
- Business segments: UGG (~51% of revenue), HOKA (~45% of revenue), Teva & Other Brands including Koolaburra (~4% of revenue). *Note: The Sanuk brand was divested in August 2024.*
- Key geographies: Domestic (US) accounts for ~64% of revenue, while International accounts for ~36%.
- Business model type: Asset-light brand manager and wholesaler/retailer. Deckers outsources manufacturing and generates revenue through Wholesale partnerships and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels (e-commerce and owned retail stores).
- Competitive position: HOKA is one of the fastest-growing athletic shoe brands globally, taking market share from incumbents like Nike and Brooks. UGG maintains a dominant, near-monopoly position in premium sheepskin footwear.
- Recent major events: Deckers executed a 6-for-1 forward stock split in September 2024. The company divested the Sanuk brand to Lolë in August 2024. Stefano Caroti succeeded Dave Powers as CEO in 2024.
The downloadable Deckers Brands financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsDeckers Brands financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.15B | $3.63B | $4.29B | $4.99B | $5.47B |
| Gross profit | $1.61B | $1.83B | $2.39B | $2.89B | $3.16B |
| Operating income | $564.7M | $652.8M | $927.5M | $1.18B | $1.26B |
| Net income | $451.9M | $516.8M | $759.6M | $966.1M | $1.02B |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
See 8 moreSee less
How to build a detailed financial model for Deckers Brands
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
UGG
- Segment name: UGG brand net sales
- Revenue driver formula: Prior Year UGG Revenue x (1 + UGG YoY Growth Rate)
- Historical growth rate: 13-16% over the last 2 years.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Driven by fashion cycles, new product silhouettes (e.g., Lowmel sneaker, Tasman slipper), and international expansion. Headwinds include unseasonably warm winters and fashion trend fatigue.
- Pricing dynamics: Premium pricing with high full-price sell-through. Pricing power is strong, allowing the brand to offset tariff impacts.
- Seasonality: Highly seasonal. The fiscal third quarter (ending December 31) historically accounts for an outsized portion of UGG's annual revenue and operating profit due to winter weather and holiday gifting.
HOKA
- Segment name: HOKA brand net sales
- Revenue driver formula: Prior Year HOKA Revenue x (1 + HOKA YoY Growth Rate)
- Historical growth rate: 20-35% CAGR over the last 3 years (23.6% in FY2025).
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Expanding from core run-specialty into lifestyle and everyday wear. Growth is driven by new product launches (Clifton, Bondi, Cielo) and expanding global brand awareness.
- Pricing dynamics: Premium performance pricing ($130-$200+ per pair). Highly disciplined inventory management prevents discounting.
- Seasonality: Less seasonal than UGG, but still sees a bump in the spring running season and holiday quarter.
Teva & Other Brands
- Segment name: Teva brand net sales / Other brands net sales (Koolaburra)
- Revenue driver formula: Prior Year Segment Revenue x (1 + Segment YoY Growth Rate)
- Historical growth rate: Declining to flat (Teva down mid-single digits, Other brands down 8.6% in FY2025).
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Teva faces intense competition in the outdoor sandal market. Koolaburra serves as a lower-tier, affordable alternative to UGG, protecting the premium positioning of the flagship brand.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line-by-line breakdown: Product costs (contract manufacturing), inbound freight, duties and tariffs, and inventory reserves.
- Gross margin range: 51.0% to 60.0% (FY2025 was 57.9%; Q3 FY2026 reached 59.8%).
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Ocean freight rates, petroleum-based materials (EVA foam for HOKA), sheepskin/wool (for UGG), and foreign currency fluctuations at the factory level.
- How COGS scales with revenue: Gross margin expands as the channel mix shifts toward Direct-to-Consumer (DTC), which carries significantly higher margins than Wholesale.
Operating Expenses
- R&D: Not explicitly broken out on the income statement; product design and development costs are embedded within SG&A.
- SG&A: Represents ~34-35% of revenue. Includes marketing and advertising (historically 7-9% of sales), retail store operating costs, e-commerce fulfillment, and corporate overhead.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: Relatively low (~1-1.5% of revenue) due to the asset-light outsourced manufacturing model.
- Stock-Based Compensation: Typical for a modern consumer brand, running at ~1% of revenue.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Rare, though minor divestiture costs were incurred with the Sanuk sale.
Margin Profile
- Gross margin: Expanding from ~51% in FY2023 to ~58-60% in FY2025/FY2026 due to DTC mix shift and lower freight costs.
- Operating margin: Expanding from ~18% in FY2023 to ~23.6% in FY2025.
- Net margin: ~18-20%, benefiting from strong operating leverage and a clean balance sheet with zero interest expense.
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: ~$3.5 - $4.0 billion.
- Key asset categories: Cash and cash equivalents, Accounts Receivable, Inventory, and Operating Lease Right-of-Use Assets.
- Goodwill & intangibles: Relatively small (~$100-$150 million), stemming from historical acquisitions of UGG, Teva, and HOKA (HOKA was acquired for just $1.1 million in 2012).
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): ~25-35 days (wholesale receivables).
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): ~120-140 days (inventory management is critical; balances run ~$500 million).
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): ~40-50 days.
- Net working capital: Generally positive but tightly managed. The company uses its strong cash position to fund inventory builds ahead of the holiday season.
- PP&E: Minimal (~$150-$200 million). Primarily corporate headquarters, retail store build-outs, and distribution center equipment.
- Right-of-use assets: Material (~$250-$300 million) due to the footprint of ~180 owned retail stores globally.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: 1.5% - 2.5%.
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Heavily skewed toward growth (new retail store openings, IT/e-commerce infrastructure, and distribution center automation).
- Major capex programmes underway: Expanding the global distribution network to support HOKA's massive volume growth and DTC fulfillment capabilities.
- M&A pattern: Historically a bolt-on acquirer (UGG in 1995, Teva in 2002, HOKA in 2012), but currently focused purely on organic growth. Divested Sanuk in 2024.
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: $0. The company has no outstanding borrowings.
- Net debt: Deeply negative (cash-rich with ~$1.9 billion in cash as of March 2025).
- Key debt instruments: Maintains an undrawn revolving credit facility for seasonal working capital needs.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. The Board approved a $2.25 billion increase in May 2025, bringing total authorization to ~$2.5 billion.
- Dividend policy: The company does not pay a dividend, preferring to return capital via share repurchases.
- Stock Split: Executed a 6-for-1 forward stock split in September 2024.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: Extremely strong, typically >1.2x Net Income due to high margins, low capex, and stock-based compensation add-backs.
- Free cash flow margin: 15% - 20% of revenue.
- Major non-cash items: Depreciation, amortization of right-of-use assets, and stock-based compensation.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Highly seasonal. Cash is consumed in Q1/Q2 (building inventory) and generated massively in Q3/Q4 (selling through UGG holiday inventory).
- Cash tax rate: ~23-24%, closely mirroring the GAAP effective tax rate.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded drivers for macroeconomic factors, segment growth rates, margin profiles, and tax rates.
- Revenue & Gross Margin: Revenue built up by brand (UGG, HOKA, Teva, Other) and cross-referenced by channel (Wholesale vs. DTC) to calculate blended gross margin.
- Income Statement: SG&A breakdown, operating income, interest income (from massive cash balance), tax expense, and net income.
- Balance Sheet: Assets (Cash, AR, Inventory, ROU Assets, PP&E), Liabilities (AP, Accrued Expenses, Lease Liabilities), and Equity.
- Cash Flow Statement: Indirect method starting from Net Income, adjusting for non-cash items, working capital changes, capex, and share repurchases.
- Working Capital Schedule: DSO, DIO, DPO calculations driving AR, Inventory, and AP balances.
- Depreciation & Capex Schedule: PP&E roll-forward and depreciation expense calculation.
- Shareholders' Equity & Shares: Retained earnings roll-forward, share repurchase schedule, and calculation of split-adjusted outstanding shares.
- DCF Valuation: Unlevered free cash flow calculation, WACC assumptions, terminal value, and implied share price.
Key Financial Relationships
- UGG Revenue = `Prior Year UGG Revenue * (1 + UGG Growth Rate)`
- HOKA Revenue = `Prior Year HOKA Revenue * (1 + HOKA Growth Rate)`
- Teva & Other Revenue = `Prior Year Teva & Other Revenue * (1 + Teva & Other Growth Rate)`
- Total Net Sales = `UGG Revenue + HOKA Revenue + Teva & Other Revenue`
- DTC Revenue = `Total Net Sales * DTC Mix %` (DTC mix is expanding, driving margin upside).
- Wholesale Revenue = `Total Net Sales * (1 - DTC Mix %)`
- Gross Profit = `Total Net Sales * Blended Gross Margin %` (Model should link GM expansion to DTC Mix %).
- SG&A Expense = `Total Net Sales * SG&A % of Revenue`
- Operating Income = `Gross Profit - SG&A Expense`
- Interest Income = `Average Cash Balance * Interest Rate on Cash` (Material due to $1.9B cash pile).
- Net Income = `(Operating Income + Interest Income) * (1 - Effective Tax Rate)`
- Ending Shares Outstanding = `Beginning Shares - (Share Repurchase Spend / Average Share Price)`
- EPS = `Net Income / Ending Shares Outstanding`
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- Revenue & Gross Margin feeds the top line of the Income Statement.
- Income Statement (Net Income) feeds the top of the Cash Flow Statement and Retained Earnings on the Balance Sheet.
- Working Capital Schedule uses Revenue and COGS from the Income Statement to calculate AR, Inventory, and AP, which feed the Balance Sheet and the operating section of the Cash Flow Statement.
- Cash Flow Statement calculates the net change in cash, which feeds the Cash line on the Balance Sheet.
- Shareholders' Equity & Shares uses the share repurchase cash outflow from the Cash Flow Statement to reduce share count, which feeds the EPS calculation on the Income Statement.
Sign Convention
- Revenue and Income: Positive.
- Expenses (COGS, SG&A, Taxes): Positive in their specific schedules, subtracted in subtotals (e.g., Gross Profit = Revenue - COGS).
- Assets: Positive on the Balance Sheet.
- Liabilities & Equity: Positive on the Balance Sheet.
- Cash Flow Statement: Cash inflows are positive; cash outflows (Capex, Share Repurchases) are negative.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Ignoring the 6-for-1 Stock Split: Historical per-share data before September 2024 must be divided by 6 to be comparable to forward projections.
- Including Sanuk in Forward Revenue: Sanuk was divested in August 2024. The model must zero out Sanuk revenue for FY2026 and beyond.
- Misunderstanding Seasonality: UGG generates the vast majority of its profit in the December quarter. If building a quarterly model, straight-lining revenue will severely distort working capital and cash flow timing.
- Underestimating Interest Income: With nearly $2 billion in cash and zero debt, DECK generates material interest income that drops straight to the bottom line.
- Disconnecting Gross Margin from Channel Mix: DECK's gross margin expansion (approaching 58-60%) is structurally tied to HOKA's growth and the shift toward DTC. Holding gross margin flat ignores the company's core margin lever.
- Over-leveraging the Balance Sheet: DECK operates with zero debt. Adding a generic debt schedule with interest expense will misrepresent the company's capital structure.
- Miscalculating Share Repurchases: The company aggressively buys back stock. Failing to model the reduction in share count will artificially depress EPS projections.
- Tariff Impact Miscalculation: The company actively mitigates tariffs through pricing actions. Modeling raw unmitigated tariff costs without corresponding pricing offsets will artificially crush gross margins.
Validation Checks
- Gross Margin Band: Gross margin should remain between 56.0% and 61.0%. Flag if it drops below 55% given current DTC mix.
- Operating Margin Band: Operating margin should be in the 22.0% - 25.0% range.
- Cash Balance: Cash should strictly increase unless share repurchases exceed Free Cash Flow. Debt must remain at $0.
- Balance Sheet Balancing: Total Assets must equal Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity in every period.
- HOKA Revenue Crossover: Check the year HOKA revenue surpasses UGG revenue (likely within 1-2 projected years).
- Effective Tax Rate: Should remain stable between 22.5% and 24.0%.
- Capex to Revenue: Should not exceed 3.0% given the outsourced manufacturing model.
- Share Count Reduction: Outstanding shares should decrease YoY by 1-3% based on the $2.5B repurchase authorization.
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGG Revenue Growth | 8.0 | % | Normalising from recent 13-16% surges; assumes steady mid-single to high-single digit growth. |
| HOKA Revenue Growth | 18.0 | % | Decelerating slightly from 24% in FY25 due to the law of large numbers, but still hyper-growth. |
| Teva & Other Growth | -2.0 | % | Mature/declining brands facing heavy competition; Sanuk removed entirely. |
| DTC Mix % | 45.0 | % | Continuing the upward trend from 43% in FY24, driving margin expansion. |
| Blended Gross Margin | 58.5 | % | Reflects FY25 actuals (57.9%) and Q3 FY26 strength (59.8%), stabilising at a high level. |
| SG&A % of Revenue | 34.5 | % | Management guidance and historical average; reinvesting gross margin gains into marketing. |
| Effective Tax Rate | 23.5 | % | Management guidance for FY2025/FY2026. |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 30 | Days | Historical average for wholesale receivables. |
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | 130 | Days | Reflects strategic inventory builds to support DTC and HOKA growth. |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | 45 | Days | Historical average based on vendor terms. |
| Capex % of Revenue | 2.0 | % | Asset-light model; covers retail expansion and IT infrastructure. |
| Interest Rate on Cash | 4.0 | % | Conservative yield on the ~$1.9B cash equivalent balance. |
| Annual Share Repurchases | 400 | $ Millions | Run-rate based on recent quarters and the $2.5B authorization. |
| Split-Adjusted Shares Out. | 152 | Millions | Estimated post-split share count (approx. 25.3M pre-split x 6). |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Zero debt capital structure; entirely cost of equity. |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 3.0 | % | Standard consumer brand terminal growth assumption. |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- SEC Filings: DECK EDGAR page for 10-K (FY ends March 31) and 10-Q filings.
- Investor Relations: deckers.com/investors for earnings presentations and guidance updates.
- Key Peers for Benchmarking: Nike (NKE), On Holding (ONON), Crocs (CROX), Skechers (SKX), Brooks (private, owned by Berkshire Hathaway).
- Industry Data Sources: NPD Group / Circana for US footwear market share and sell-through data; Strava data for running shoe brand affinity.
- Consensus Estimates: FactSet or Bloomberg for forward revenue and EPS estimates to validate model outputs.
Sources
- Deckers Brands FY2024 and FY2025 Earnings Releases (deckers.com)
- Deckers Brands Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release (January 2026)
- SEC EDGAR Database (Form 10-K for FY2024)
- Forbes: "Deckers Powers 22% Ahead With Hoka Leading The Charge" (August 2024)
- Mergr: "Lole Acquires Sanuk" (August 2024)
- Macrotrends / GuruFocus for historical gross margin and operating margin data.
Do more with the Deckers Brands model
Frequently asked
What is Deckers Brands and what are its main products?+
Deckers Brands is a global designer and distributor of footwear, apparel, and accessories, primarily known for its powerhouse brands UGG and HOKA. The company operates a multi-brand portfolio that targets both the premium lifestyle and high-performance athletic markets.
How does Deckers Brands generate revenue across its brands?+
Deckers Brands generates revenue through wholesale partnerships and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels, including e-commerce and owned retail stores. Its main revenue drivers are the UGG brand, contributing approximately 51% of revenue, and the rapidly growing HOKA brand, accounting for about 45%.
What is the projected revenue growth rate used in the Deckers Brands financial model?+
The financial model for Deckers Brands (DECK) assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 15.75%. This projection helps equity analysts assess whether the market is accurately pricing the explosive growth of HOKA and the sustained resurgence of UGG.
What is Deckers Brands' capital expenditure strategy, and what percentage of revenue does it represent?+
Deckers Brands' capital expenditure (Capex) is heavily skewed toward growth, representing about 1.62% of revenue in the financial model. This investment supports new retail store openings, IT/e-commerce infrastructure, and distribution center automation to handle HOKA's massive volume growth.
What is the purpose of the Deckers Brands financial model for analysts?+
The Deckers Brands financial model projects the three-statement financials and intrinsic valuation of the company. Its primary purpose is to help equity analysts determine if the market is accurately pricing the growth of HOKA and UGG, thereby aiding in buy/sell/hold recommendations.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Deckers Brands (DECK)?+
Yes, an Excel financial model for Deckers Brands (DECK) is available for download. This general corporate model projects financials from FY2026 to FY2030 and includes key assumptions for detailed analysis.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
Over my years in the finance industry I kept building the same models over and over again. Same structure, same assumptions, different logo. So I started building frameworks to turn them into clean, reusable templates.
Every model here is one I’d actually use for a client, and I personally vet each one before it goes up.
I’m not an expert in every industry, but I’ve built enough models to know what belongs in one. And when something is completely foreign to me, I reach out to my network for experts to work on our models with us.
Having a template library on hand cuts a first build from hours to minutes.
Need help finding your model? You’ll find me in the Finamodel app!
Other Consumer Goods Company Financial Models
Browse another company in the same sector.
Church & Dwight
Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Colgate-Palmolive
Colgate-Palmolive is a leading global consumer products company focused on the production, distribution, and provision of household, health care, personal care, and veterinary products.
Clorox
The Clorox Company is a leading multinational manufacturer and marketer of consumer and professional products.
Estée Lauder Companies
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Kimberly-Clark
Kimberly-Clark is a global consumer packaged goods company that manufactures and markets personal care and consumer tissue products under iconic brands such as Huggies, Kleenex, Kotex, and Scott.
Kenvue
Kenvue is the world's largest pure-play consumer health company by revenue, manufacturing and marketing a portfolio of iconic, science-backed brands including Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid.
Lululemon Athletica
Lululemon Athletica is a premium athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories company that designs and retails products for yoga, running, training, and other sweaty pursuits.
Altria
Altria is the leading manufacturer and seller of tobacco products in the United States, spanning smokeable products, oral tobacco products, and e-vapor products.
Explore more Consumer financial model templates.
