Fox Financial Model
Media Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
Fox Corporation is a leading American news, sports, and entertainment broadcasting company formed following the 2019 spin-off of 21st Century Fox assets to Disney.
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About this model
This model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecasting tool for Fox Corporation, enabling analysts to assess the impact of linear television subscriber declines, the scaling of the Tubi AVOD platform, and the escalating costs of live sports programming rights on the company's free cash flow generation.
Fox Corporation is a leading American news, sports, and entertainment broadcasting company formed following the 2019 spin-off of 21st Century Fox assets to Disney. The company operates primarily through two major segments: Television (approximately 57% of total revenue) and Cable Network Programming (approximately 42% of total revenue). Fox generates the vast majority of its revenue within the United States, operating an asset-light content distribution model heavily reliant on affiliate fees from pay-TV distributors and advertising revenues. The company holds a dominant competitive position in live news through FOX News and live sports broadcasting (NFL, MLB, College Football). Recent major events include a massive $5 billion increase to its share repurchase authorisation in August 2025, the launch of the FOX One digital initiative, and record financial performance in FY2025 driven by Super Bowl LIX and political advertising.
The downloadable Fox financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsFox financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.97B | $14.91B | $13.98B | $16.30B | $17.13B |
| Income before income tax expense | $1.69B | $1.74B | $2.10B | $3.06B | $2.28B |
| Operating expenses | -$9.12B | -$9.69B | -$9.09B | -$10.52B | -$10.85B |
| Net income | $1.21B | $1.24B | $1.50B | $2.26B | $1.69B |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
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How to build a detailed financial model for Fox
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
Cable Network Programming
- Segment name: Cable Network Programming
- Revenue driver formula: (Average Linear Subscribers x Average Monthly Affiliate Fee x 12) + (Viewership x Ad Load x Cost Per Mille) + Sublicensing Fees
- Historical growth rate: 2% to 5% CAGR
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Driven by contractual affiliate fee rate increases which currently offset the secular headwind of cord-cutting (net subscriber declines).
- Pricing dynamics: Affiliate fees are highly contractual and negotiated on multi-year cycles with major MVPDs (Multichannel Video Programming Distributors).
- Revenue recognition notes: Affiliate fees are recognised over time as programming is provided.
- Seasonality: Relatively stable, though advertising spikes during major breaking news cycles and election seasons (even-numbered years).
Television
- Segment name: Television
- Revenue driver formula: (Retransmission Subscribers x Retransmission Rate) + (Linear Ad Impressions x CPM) + (Tubi Monthly Active Users x Average Revenue Per User)
- Historical growth rate: 5% to 18% (highly volatile due to event rotation)
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Tubi AVOD (Advertising Video on Demand) is the primary digital growth engine, offsetting linear ratings declines. Super Bowl broadcast rotation and political election cycles cause massive biennial revenue spikes.
- Pricing dynamics: Sports advertising commands premium spot pricing. Retransmission fees are contractual.
- Revenue recognition notes: Advertising revenue is recognised when the spot is broadcast.
- Seasonality: Highly seasonal. Fiscal Q1 and Q2 (ending September and December) are exceptionally strong due to the NFL season, MLB postseason, and autumn political advertising.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line-by-line breakdown: Operating expenses primarily consist of sports programming rights amortisation, entertainment programming amortisation, production costs, and newsgathering costs.
- Gross margin range: Fox does not report traditional gross margin, but Operating Expense as a percentage of revenue typically runs between 55% and 60%.
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Multi-year sports rights contracts (NFL, MLB) are the single largest fixed-cost commitment.
- How COGS scales with revenue: Step-function. Sports rights are fixed multi-year commitments; if advertising revenue falls, margins compress severely due to the lack of operating leverage on these fixed rights.
Operating Expenses
- R&D: Not material for this business.
- SG&A: Selling, general and administrative expenses typically run at 12% to 15% of revenue, covering corporate overhead, marketing for Tubi, and station operations.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: D&A (excluding programming rights amortisation, which sits in operating expenses) is relatively low, typically 1.5% to 2.5% of revenue.
- Stock-Based Compensation: Typically 0.5% to 1.0% of revenue.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Infrequent, though occasional M&A integration costs occur.
Margin Profile
- EBITDA margin: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin ranges from 20% to 23%.
- Margin trend: Stable to slightly compressing. The high-margin Cable segment is facing cord-cutting, while the Television segment bears the brunt of escalating sports rights costs.
- Segment-level margins: Cable Network Programming is highly profitable (EBITDA margins of 28% to 32%). Television is lower margin (EBITDA margins of 5% to 15%, highly dependent on the Super Bowl and political cycles).
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: Approximately $22 billion to $24 billion.
- Key asset categories: Cash and cash equivalents, receivables, and a massive balance of intangible assets and goodwill (legacy from the Disney separation and subsequent acquisitions).
- Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets: Approximately 40% to 45%.
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 60 to 75 days.
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 90 to 110 days (driven by programming rights payment schedules).
- Net working capital as % of revenue: Typically negative.
- Is working capital positive or negative? Negative. Fox benefits from collecting affiliate and ad revenues before paying out large lump sums for sports rights.
- PP&E: Approximately $1.7 billion, consisting of broadcast facilities, studios, and transmission equipment. Useful lives range from 3 to 40 years.
- Right-of-use assets / operating leases: Around $400 million to $500 million; material but not a dominant balance sheet item.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: 2.0% to 3.0% (highly asset-light).
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: 70% maintenance (studio upkeep, broadcast tech) and 30% growth (digital infrastructure for Tubi and FOX One).
- Major capex programmes underway or planned: Investments in digital platforms and LATAM expansion.
- Capitalised software / development costs if material: Minimal relative to overall revenue.
- M&A pattern: Bolt-on acquirer. Fox acquires digital assets (Tubi, Credible, Outkick) to supplement its linear broadcasting cash cows.
- Typical acquisition multiple paid: Varies, but Tubi was acquired for approximately $440 million and has scaled significantly since.
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: Approximately $6.6 billion in long-term borrowings.
- Debt/EBITDA ratio: Very conservative. Gross leverage is typically 1.5x to 1.8x. Net leverage is often below 0.5x due to high cash balances.
- Credit rating: Investment grade (BBB/Baa2).
- Key debt instruments: Senior notes with staggered maturities.
- Maturity profile: Well-laddered, with average maturities exceeding 7 years.
- Interest rate profile: Predominantly fixed-rate senior notes.
- Covenants: Standard investment-grade incurrence covenants; no restrictive financial maintenance covenants.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. Fox added $5 billion to its authorisation in August 2025. The company frequently repurchases $500 million to $1 billion per quarter across Class A and Class B shares.
- Dividend policy: Semi-annual dividend of $0.28 per share ($0.56 annualised), representing a payout ratio of roughly 10% to 15% of net income.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: Very strong, typically 1.2x to 1.5x of Net Income.
- Free cash flow margin: 15% to 18% (generated $3.0 billion in FCF on $16.3 billion revenue in FY2025).
- Major non-cash items that bridge net income to OCF: Amortisation of programming rights is a massive non-cash add-back, which is then offset by the actual cash paid for programming rights in the working capital section.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Highly seasonal. Cash is drained ahead of major sports seasons to pay rights fees and replenished as advertising is collected.
- Capex intensity: Very low, resulting in FCF closely mirroring OCF.
- Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate: Cash taxes are generally aligned with the GAAP effective rate of 24% to 26%.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded drivers for segment growth, margins, tax rates, and capital returns.
- Scenarios: Live toggles for Base, Bull, and Bear cases (specifically toggling cord-cutting rates and Tubi growth).
- Income Statement: Consolidated P&L mirroring Fox's 10-K, down to Net Income Attributable to Fox Corporation Stockholders.
- Segment Build: Detailed revenue and EBITDA build for Cable Network Programming, Television, and Corporate/Eliminations.
- Programming Rights Schedule: Roll-forward of programming rights assets, tracking cash paid versus P&L amortisation.
- Balance Sheet: Standard assets, liabilities, and equity, featuring specific lines for Programming Rights.
- Cash Flow Statement: Indirect method, explicitly breaking out the cash paid for programming rights.
- Debt Schedule: Tranche-by-tranche debt build, interest expense calculation, and mandatory paydowns.
- Equity & Shares: Roll-forward of Class A and Class B share counts, factoring in the aggressive buyback programme.
- DCF Valuation: Unlevered free cash flow build, WACC calculation, and terminal value.
Key Financial Relationships
- `Cable Affiliate Revenue = Prior Year Cable Affiliate Revenue * (1 + Cable Subscriber Growth + Cable Rate Increase)`
- `Cable Advertising Revenue = Prior Year Cable Ad Revenue * (1 + News Viewership Growth)`
- `Television Affiliate Revenue = Prior Year TV Affiliate Revenue * (1 + Retransmission Rate Growth)`
- `Television Advertising Revenue = Base Linear TV Ads + Tubi AVOD Revenue + Political Ad Bump (If Even Year) + Super Bowl Bump (If Applicable Year)`
- `Total Segment Revenue = Cable Network Programming Revenue + Television Revenue + Corporate/Other Revenue - Eliminations`
- `Cable Operating Expenses = Cable Segment Revenue * (1 - Cable EBITDA Margin) - Cable SG&A`
- `Television Operating Expenses = Television Segment Revenue * (1 - TV EBITDA Margin) - TV SG&A`
- `Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA = Cable EBITDA + Television EBITDA + Corporate/Other EBITDA`
- `Programming Rights Amortisation = Beginning Programming Rights Asset * Historical Amortisation Rate`
- `Ending Share Count = Beginning Share Count - (Share Repurchase Spend / Average Share Price)`
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- The Segment Build sheet is the primary engine, feeding Total Revenue and Operating Expenses directly into the Income Statement.
- The Programming Rights Schedule calculates amortisation (which feeds the Income Statement operating expenses) and cash paid for rights (which feeds the Cash Flow Statement operating cash flow).
- The Equity & Shares sheet calculates the reduced share count, which feeds the EPS calculations on the Income Statement and the equity balance on the Balance Sheet.
- The Debt Schedule calculates interest expense, which feeds the Income Statement, creating a minor circularity if cash sweeps are enabled (though Fox's high cash balance usually precludes the need for revolver sweeps).
Sign Convention
- Income Statement: Revenues are positive. All expenses (COGS, SG&A, Interest, Taxes) are negative.
- Balance Sheet: Assets are positive. Liabilities and Equity are positive.
- Cash Flow Statement: Net Income is positive. Non-cash add-backs are positive. Increases in assets are negative; increases in liabilities are positive. Cash outflows (capex, dividends, buybacks) are negative.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Failing to model the massive biennial spike in Television advertising revenue caused by US political elections (even-numbered calendar years / odd-numbered fiscal years).
- Ignoring the Super Bowl rotation. Fox broadcasts the Super Bowl every 3 to 4 years (e.g., FY2025), which adds hundreds of millions in high-margin revenue that disappears the following year.
- Misunderstanding programming rights. The P&L reflects amortisation of rights, but the cash flow statement reflects cash paid. These rarely match in a given quarter and must be modelled via a dedicated roll-forward schedule.
- Overestimating consolidated margins by forgetting to deduct the "Corporate and Other" EBITDA drag, which typically runs at negative $150 million to $200 million annually.
- Double-counting intercompany revenue. Fox reports segment revenues gross, but the consolidated model must include the "Eliminations" line (typically negative $150 million to $200 million per quarter) to prevent overstating total revenue.
- Miscalculating per-share metrics by failing to aggregate both Class A and Class B shares, or by failing to account for the massive reduction in share count due to the $5 billion buyback programme.
- Treating Tubi as a separate segment. Tubi revenue is embedded within the Television segment's advertising revenue and must be modelled as a sub-driver, not a standalone reported segment.
- Misaligning the fiscal year. Fox has a June 30 fiscal year-end. Calendar Q4 (December) is Fiscal Q2.
Validation Checks
- Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin should remain between 20% and 23%; flag if it drops below 18%.
- Total Eliminations must be negative and should roughly equal 3% to 4% of gross segment revenues.
- Free Cash Flow should consistently print between $2.0 billion and $3.0 billion annually.
- Debt/EBITDA must remain below 2.0x based on current capital structure policies.
- Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every period.
- The effective tax rate should remain between 24% and 26%.
- Dividend payout ratio should not exceed 20% of Net Income, given the $0.56 annual dividend and EPS typically exceeding $4.00.
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cable Affiliate Revenue Growth | 3.0 | % | Blended rate of contractual price increases offsetting mid-single-digit subscriber declines. |
| Cable Advertising Growth | 2.0 | % | Stable news viewership with slight pricing power. |
| TV Affiliate Revenue Growth | 5.0 | % | Strong pricing power in retransmission consent renewals. |
| TV Advertising Growth (Non-Event) | 3.0 | % | Tubi AVOD growth offsetting linear ratings declines. |
| Political Ad Bump (Even CY) | 400.0 | $M | Incremental revenue during major US election cycles. |
| Cable EBITDA Margin | 30.0 | % | Historical average for the Cable Network Programming segment. |
| TV EBITDA Margin | 10.0 | % | Historical average, burdened by heavy sports rights costs. |
| Corporate EBITDA Drag | -200.0 | $M | Annual run-rate for corporate overhead. |
| Effective Tax Rate | 25.0 | % | Historical GAAP effective tax rate. |
| Capex as % of Revenue | 2.5 | % | Asset-light broadcasting model. |
| Annual Share Repurchases | 2000.0 | $M | Aggressive buyback execution against the $12B total authorisation. |
| Annual Dividend per Share | 0.56 | $ | Stated corporate policy ($0.28 semi-annually). |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Standard cost of capital for large-cap media. |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 1.0 | % | Conservative long-term growth assuming linear declines offset digital growth. |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- Filings: SEC EDGAR (Fox Corporation Form 10-K, 10-Q), Fox Investor Relations website.
- Key Peers: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Paramount Global (PARA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA).
- Industry Data: Nielsen ratings for linear viewership, Comscore for local news dominance, and standard AVOD industry reports for Tubi benchmarking.
- Consensus Estimates: Bloomberg or FactSet for forward-looking EPS and revenue estimates.
Sources
Do more with the Fox model
Frequently asked
What is Fox Corporation's primary business model?+
Fox Corporation is a leading American news, sports, and entertainment broadcasting company. It primarily operates through its Television and Cable Network Programming segments, generating revenue mainly from affiliate fees and advertising within the United States.
How does Fox Corporation generate its revenue?+
Fox Corporation generates the vast majority of its revenue within the United States, primarily through affiliate fees from pay-TV distributors and advertising revenues. Key drivers include its dominant position in live news through FOX News and live sports broadcasting such as the NFL and MLB.
What are the key assumptions for capital expenditure in Fox Corporation's financial model?+
The financial model assumes capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue to be approximately 2.7%, reflecting the company's asset-light content distribution model. Approximately 70% of this capex is for maintenance, while 30% is allocated for growth investments in digital infrastructure like Tubi and FOX One.
What is the projected revenue growth rate for Fox Corporation in the financial model?+
The financial model forecasts Fox Corporation's revenue to grow at approximately 7% annually. This growth rate is a top assumption used to project the company's future financial performance.
What are the main factors influencing Fox Corporation's free cash flow generation in the valuation model?+
The valuation model assesses free cash flow generation by considering the impact of linear television subscriber declines, the scaling of the Tubi AVOD platform, and the escalating costs of live sports programming rights. These factors are crucial for determining the company's equity valuation.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Fox Corporation?+
Yes, a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecasting Excel model for Fox Corporation is available for download. This model allows analysts to assess various financial impacts and project future performance.
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