Vistra Financial Model
Utilities Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating across the United States.
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About this model
This model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecasting tool for an integrated power producer, enabling an analyst to assess the impact of wholesale power price volatility, retail margin expansion, and the downside protection of nuclear Production Tax Credits (PTCs) on free cash flow generation and capital return capacity.
- Vistra Corp. (VST) is a leading Fortune 500 integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating across the United States. The company combines an asset-heavy zero-carbon and conventional generation fleet with an asset-light retail power business, effectively hedging its wholesale generation exposure with retail load.
- Business Segments:
- Retail (~50% of revenue): Sells electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Texas (~25% of revenue): Electricity generation and wholesale energy activities in the ERCOT market.
- East (~20% of revenue): Generation in PJM, ISO-NE, and NYISO markets (includes the recently acquired Energy Harbor nuclear fleet).
- West (<5% of revenue): Generation and battery energy storage operations primarily in the CAISO market (e.g., Moss Landing).
- Sunset & Asset Closure (<5% of revenue): Legacy generation slated for retirement and decommissioning activities.
- Key Geographies: United States (Texas/ERCOT, Northeast/Midwest/PJM, California/CAISO).
- Business Model Type: Integrated power producer (asset-heavy generation paired with retail distribution).
- Competitive Position: Largest competitive power generator in the US, operating the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet following the Energy Harbor acquisition.
- Recent Major Events: Closed the $3 billion acquisition of Energy Harbor in March 2024 (adding ~4,000 MW of nuclear capacity and ~1 million retail customers); acquired the 15% minority interest in Vistra Vision in December 2024; closed the 2,600 MW Lotus Infrastructure Partners acquisition in November 2025; announced the pending acquisition of Cogentrix Energy (5,500 MW) expected to close in 2026; signed major nuclear PPAs with Amazon Web Services and Meta.
The downloadable Vistra financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
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Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
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Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsVistra financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.70B | $15.63B | $13.80B | $14.76B | $17.59B |
| Selling, general, and administrative expenses | -$1.04B | -$1.19B | -$1.31B | -$1.60B | -$1.71B |
| Operating income | -$1.51B | -$1.18B | $2.66B | $4.08B | $1.91B |
| Net income | -$1.27B | -$1.23B | $1.49B | $2.66B | $944.0M |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
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How to build a detailed financial model for Vistra
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
Retail
- Segment Name: Retail
- Revenue Driver Formula: Retail Sales Volumes (TWh) x Average Retail Realised Price ($/MWh)
- Historical Growth Rate: 5-10% CAGR (boosted by the Energy Harbor acquisition and organic ERCOT growth).
- Key Growth Levers and Headwinds: Customer acquisition/retention, weather-driven demand, and large commercial/industrial (C&I) contract wins. Headwinds include extreme weather events causing supply cost spikes.
- Pricing Dynamics: Fixed-price and variable-price contracts. Margins expand when wholesale supply costs drop and retail prices remain sticky.
- Revenue Recognition: Over time as electricity and gas are delivered to customers.
- Seasonality: Strongest in Q3 (summer cooling demand in Texas) and Q1 (winter heating demand).
Texas (Wholesale Generation)
- Segment Name: Texas
- Revenue Driver Formula: Generation Volumes (TWh) x Realised Wholesale Price ($/MWh) + Ancillary Services Revenue
- Historical Growth Rate: Highly volatile, driven by ERCOT power curves and weather events.
- Key Growth Levers and Headwinds: Spark spreads, natural gas prices, renewable penetration (which increases the value of Vistra's dispatchable thermal fleet), and plant commercial availability.
- Pricing Dynamics: Spot market pricing heavily hedged (typically 90-100% hedged 1-2 years out).
- Revenue Recognition: Point in time as power is injected into the grid.
- Seasonality: Peak revenues in Q3 due to extreme summer heat in ERCOT.
East (Wholesale Generation)
- Segment Name: East
- Revenue Driver Formula: Generation Volumes (TWh) x Realised Wholesale Price ($/MWh) + Capacity Market Revenues + Nuclear PTCs
- Historical Growth Rate: Step-function increase in 2024/2025 due to the Energy Harbor nuclear acquisition.
- Key Growth Levers and Headwinds: PJM capacity auction clearing prices, nuclear plant uptime, and long-term data centre PPAs (e.g., Meta).
- Pricing Dynamics: Supported by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), which provides a revenue floor if market prices fall below the strike price.
- Revenue Recognition: Power delivery (point in time) and capacity revenues (recognised ratably over the planning year).
West (Wholesale Generation)
- Segment Name: West
- Revenue Driver Formula: Capacity/Resource Adequacy Revenues + (Discharge Volumes x Peak Price - Charge Volumes x Off-Peak Price)
- Historical Growth Rate: 15-20% CAGR driven by battery storage expansion.
- Key Growth Levers and Headwinds: CAISO volatility, battery degradation, and new storage deployments (e.g., Moss Landing expansions).
- Pricing Dynamics: Primarily contracted Resource Adequacy (RA) payments with merchant upside from daily price arbitrage.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line Items: Fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees.
- Gross Margin Range: 35-45% (highly dependent on the mark-to-market accounting of hedges).
- Key Input Costs: Natural gas, nuclear fuel, coal, and wholesale power purchases to serve retail load.
- Scaling Dynamics: Fuel costs scale linearly with generation volumes; purchased power scales with retail load not covered by proprietary generation.
Operating Expenses
- Operating and Maintenance (O&M): Fixed and variable costs to run power plants (labour, routine maintenance, materials). Does not scale linearly with revenue.
- SG&A: Retail marketing, customer acquisition, billing, and corporate overhead. Typically 8-10% of revenue.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: High (asset-heavy business). Includes amortisation of nuclear fuel.
- Restructuring / One-time Charges: Frequent, related to the Asset Closure segment (decommissioning legacy coal plants) and M&A integration.
Margin Profile
- EBITDA Margin: 25-35% (Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA is the primary metric, stripping out unrealised hedging gains/losses).
- Margin Trend: Expanding, driven by the addition of high-margin nuclear assets, strong retail supply cost benefits, and lucrative data centre PPAs.
- Segment-Level Margins: Retail generates ~$1.6B Adj. EBITDA; Generation (Texas, East, West) generates ~$4.3B Adj. EBITDA.
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total Assets: ~$41.5 billion.
- Key Asset Categories: Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E) dominates the balance sheet.
- Goodwill & Intangibles: Significant, arising from the Energy Harbor acquisition and historical retail book acquisitions.
- Working Capital Profile:
- DSO: 30-45 days (retail receivables).
- DPO: 30-40 days.
- Margin Deposits: Highly volatile. Vistra must post cash collateral for its hedging program when forward power prices rise. This can cause massive temporary swings in operating cash flow.
- Net Working Capital: Generally negative or neutral, excluding the impact of derivative collateral.
- PP&E: Power generation facilities, battery storage systems, and nuclear fuel. Maintenance capex is a critical deduction to reach free cash flow.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of Revenue: 5-8%.
- Maintenance vs. Growth Split: Roughly 40% maintenance / 60% growth.
- Major Capex Programmes: Solar and energy storage developments (Vistra Zero), nuclear fuel purchases, and gas plant upgrades.
- M&A Pattern: Transformational acquirer. Acquired Energy Harbor ($3B cash + equity) in 2024, Lotus Infrastructure ($1.9B) in 2025, and announced Cogentrix.
- Acquisition Multiples: Typically acquires generation assets at 6-8x EV/EBITDA.
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total Debt: ~$20.9 billion; Net Debt is closely monitored.
- Debt/EBITDA Ratio: Target Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA of ~2.3x by year-end 2027.
- Credit Rating: BB+ / Ba1 (pushing towards investment grade).
- Key Debt Instruments: Corporate revolving credit facility, commodity-linked revolving credit facility, senior secured notes, and senior unsecured notes.
- Interest Rate Profile: Mix of fixed bonds and floating term loans; uses interest rate swaps to manage exposure.
- Share Repurchase Programme: Highly active. Executed ~$5.2 billion since Nov 2021. ~$1.8 billion remaining authorisation as of early 2026.
- Dividend Policy: $0.23 per share quarterly (~$0.92 annually), yielding ~0.6%, with a track record of steady growth.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- OCF / Net Income: Often >2.0x or <0.5x due to massive non-cash mark-to-market derivative adjustments. GAAP Net Income is a poor proxy for cash generation.
- Free Cash Flow Margin: Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) is the primary metric, typically running at $3.0B - $3.6B annually.
- Major Non-Cash Items: Unrealised gains/losses on commodity contracts (can swing by billions YoY), D&A, and deferred taxes.
- Working Capital Impact: Margin postings for hedges can be a massive use of cash in rising price environments and a source of cash when contracts settle.
- Capex Intensity: High maintenance capex required for the thermal and nuclear fleets.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded drivers for retail volumes, wholesale power prices, capacity clearing prices, PTC strike prices, and fuel costs.
- Retail Segment: Customer counts, volumes, retail pricing, supply costs, and Retail Adjusted EBITDA.
- Texas Segment: ERCOT generation volumes, realised prices, fuel costs, and Texas Adjusted EBITDA.
- East Segment: PJM/ISO-NE generation volumes, capacity revenues, nuclear PTC calculations, and East Adjusted EBITDA.
- West Segment: CAISO volumes, RA revenues, and West Adjusted EBITDA.
- Asset Closure Segment: Decommissioning costs and legacy plant retirement schedules.
- Consolidated Income Statement: Aggregation of segment revenues, consolidated COGS, O&M, SG&A, D&A, and GAAP Net Income.
- Reconciliation: Bridge from GAAP Net Income to Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG (crucial for this company).
- Balance Sheet: PP&E, Intangibles, Debt, Derivative Assets/Liabilities, and Margin Deposits.
- Cash Flow Statement: OCF, Capex (split by maintenance, nuclear fuel, and growth), and Financing (dividends, massive buybacks).
- Debt Schedule: Tranche-by-tranche debt build, interest expense calculation, and commodity-linked revolver tracking.
- DCF Valuation: Unlevered free cash flow build, WACC calculation, and terminal value.
Key Financial Relationships
- `Retail Revenue = Retail Sales Volumes (TWh) x Average Retail Rate ($/MWh)`
- `Texas Wholesale Revenue = Texas Generation Volumes (TWh) x ERCOT Realised Price ($/MWh)`
- `East Wholesale Revenue = East Generation Volumes (TWh) x PJM Realised Price ($/MWh) + Capacity Revenue + Nuclear PTC Revenue`
- `Nuclear PTC Revenue = MAX(0, PTC Strike Price - Gross Realised Power Price) x Eligible Nuclear Volumes (MWh)`
- `Consolidated Fuel Cost = (Texas Volumes x Texas Heat Rate x Gas Price) + Nuclear Fuel Amortisation + Coal Costs`
- `Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA = Retail EBITDA + Texas EBITDA + East EBITDA + West EBITDA - Corporate/Other`
- `GAAP Net Income = Adjusted EBITDA - D&A - Interest Expense - Taxes +/- Unrealised Mark-to-Market Derivative Gains/Losses - Asset Closure Impacts`
- `Adjusted FCFbG = Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA - Interest Paid - Taxes Paid - Maintenance Capex - Nuclear Fuel Purchases - Working Capital Changes (excluding margin deposits)`
- `Net Debt = Total Short-Term Debt + Total Long-Term Debt - Cash & Cash Equivalents`
- `Shares Outstanding = Prior Period Shares - (Share Repurchase Spend / Average Share Price)`
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- Assumptions feeds forward power prices and retail margins into the Segment sheets.
- Segment sheets calculate gross margin and operating expenses, feeding into the Consolidated Income Statement and the Reconciliation sheet.
- The Reconciliation sheet calculates Adjusted EBITDA, which is the starting point for the Cash Flow Statement (via the FCFbG bridge).
- Cash Flow Statement (specifically share repurchases) feeds the DCF Valuation (per-share metrics) and the Balance Sheet (equity reduction).
- Debt Schedule feeds Interest Expense to the Income Statement and Interest Paid to the Reconciliation (FCFbG calculation). Circularity risk exists here if interest expense is tied to average debt balances funded by revolver draws.
Sign Convention
- Revenues and Sales: Positive.
- Expenses (COGS, O&M, SG&A, Interest, Taxes): Negative in the Income Statement.
- Assets: Positive on the Balance Sheet.
- Liabilities and Equity: Positive on the Balance Sheet.
- Cash Flow: Cash inflows (e.g., net income, depreciation add-back, debt issuance) are positive; cash outflows (e.g., capex, dividends, share repurchases, debt repayment) are negative.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Confusion: Vistra's GAAP Net Income is heavily distorted by unrealised mark-to-market losses/gains on its hedging book (e.g., an $808M unrealised loss in 2025). The model must focus on Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA.
- Nuclear PTC Modelling: The IRA nuclear PTC acts as a floor. If forward power prices rise above the strike price (~$44/MWh inflation-adjusted), PTC revenue drops to zero. The model must use a `MAX(0, Strike - Price)` logic.
- Asset Closure Segment: Vistra explicitly excludes the Asset Closure segment from its "Ongoing Operations" metrics. Failing to separate this segment will understate core margins.
- Margin Deposits / Collateral: Changes in derivative collateral can swing operating cash flow by billions. This must be modelled separately from standard working capital (AR/AP/Inventory).
- Nuclear Fuel Accounting: Nuclear fuel is capitalised and amortised. The cash outflow sits in investing activities (or separate operating lines), while the expense sits in COGS/Amortisation.
- M&A Stub Periods: The Energy Harbor acquisition closed March 1, 2024 (10 months of contribution in 2024 vs. 12 months in 2025). The Lotus acquisition closed Nov 2025. Historicals are not perfectly comparable.
- Share Count Reduction: Vistra is aggressively buying back stock (~30% reduction since 2021). Holding the share count flat will severely understate future Free Cash Flow per Share and EPS.
- Capacity Revenues: PJM capacity prices clear in annual auctions. Using historical averages will miss the step-function changes in forward capacity auction results.
Validation Checks
- Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA: Should trend toward management's target of ~2.3x by 2027. Flag if it exceeds 3.0x.
- FCFbG Conversion: Adjusted FCFbG should be roughly 55-65% of Adjusted EBITDA.
- Retail vs. Generation Mix: Retail should contribute roughly 25-30% of total Adjusted EBITDA (~$1.6B out of ~$5.9B).
- Balance Sheet Balancing: Total Assets must equal Total Liabilities + Equity in all forecast periods.
- Hedging Ratios: Generation volumes should be modelled as ~100% hedged in Year 1 and ~80-90% hedged in Year 2.
- Dividend Payout: Dividend per share should grow modestly, but total dividend cash outflow should remain relatively flat or decline due to the shrinking share count.
- Effective Tax Rate: Should be modelled around 21-24%, but cash taxes will be lower due to PTCs and accelerated depreciation.
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Adjusted EBITDA | 1,622 | $ Millions | Actual FY 2025 Retail EBITDA |
| Generation Adjusted EBITDA | 4,290 | $ Millions | Actual FY 2025 Generation EBITDA |
| Consolidated Adj. EBITDA (2026E) | 7,200 | $ Millions | Midpoint of 2026 guidance ($6.8B - $7.6B) |
| Adjusted FCFbG (2026E) | 4,325 | $ Millions | Midpoint of 2026 guidance ($3.925B - $4.725B) |
| Maintenance Capex & Nuclear Fuel | 850 | $ Millions | Estimated annual run-rate to maintain the fleet |
| Target Net Debt / EBITDA | 2.3 | x | Management target for year-end 2027 |
| Annual Share Repurchases | 1,000 | $ Millions | Based on remaining $1.8B authorisation through 2026 |
| Shares Outstanding | 338 | Millions | Actual Q4 2025 ending share count |
| Dividend per Share | 0.92 | $ / Year | Annualised based on $0.23 quarterly dividend |
| Effective Tax Rate | 22.0 | % | Standard corporate rate plus state taxes, blended |
| WACC | 7.5 | % | Blended cost of capital for an integrated utility/IPP |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5 | % | Long-term power demand growth rate |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- SEC Filings: Vistra Corp. (VST) EDGAR page for 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings.
- Investor Relations: vistracorp.com/investor-relations for quarterly earnings presentations and non-GAAP reconciliation tables.
- Key Peers: Constellation Energy (CEG), NRG Energy (NRG), Talen Energy (TLN), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG).
- Industry Data: ERCOT (ercot.com) for Texas grid demand and pricing; PJM (pjm.com) for Eastern capacity auction results and wholesale pricing.
- Proprietary Data: S&P Global Platts for forward power and gas curves; Wood Mackenzie for retail power market share data.
Sources
- Vistra Corp. Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Release (Feb 26, 2026)
- Seeking Alpha: Vistra outlines $16 adjusted free cash flow per share target by 2027
- Vistra Corp. Q4 and Full-Year 2024 Earnings Release (Feb 27, 2025)
- Stock Titan: VST Financials, Income Statement, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
- Trading Economics: Vistra Corp EBITDA and Balance Sheet Data
- Vistra Corp. 2025 Form 10-K
Do more with the Vistra model
Frequently asked
What does Vistra Corp. do?+
Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating across the United States. The company combines an asset-heavy zero-carbon and conventional generation fleet with an asset-light retail power business, effectively hedging its wholesale generation exposure with retail load.
What are the primary revenue drivers for Vistra Corp.?+
Vistra's revenue is primarily driven by sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its Retail segment, accounting for approximately 50% of revenue. The remaining revenue comes from electricity generation and wholesale energy activities across key U.S. markets like Texas, the Northeast, and California.
What are the key capital expenditure assumptions in Vistra's financial model?+
The financial model assumes Vistra's capital expenditure to be approximately 8.8% of revenue. This capex is roughly split 40% for maintenance and 60% for growth initiatives, including solar and energy storage developments, nuclear fuel purchases, and gas plant upgrades.
How does the Vistra financial model assess equity valuation and cash flow?+
The Vistra financial model provides a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and cash flow forecasting. It enables an analyst to assess the impact of wholesale power price volatility, retail margin expansion, and the downside protection of nuclear Production Tax Credits (PTCs) on free cash flow generation and capital return capacity.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Vistra Corp. (VST)?+
Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Vistra Corp. is available. This model serves as a comprehensive equity valuation and cash flow forecasting tool, with a forecast horizon extending from FY2026 to FY2030.
What is Vistra's working capital profile like?+
Vistra's working capital profile is generally negative or neutral, excluding the impact of derivative collateral. The company must post cash collateral for its hedging program when forward power prices rise, which can cause massive temporary swings in operating cash flow.
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