Wynn Resorts Financial Model

Wynn Resorts reports revenue across four main product lines within each of its geographic segments.

Casino Revenue

• Driver formula: (Table Games Drop x Table Games Win %) + (Slot Machine Handle x Slot Machine Win %)
• Historical growth rate: Highly volatile due to Macau's regulatory changes and pandemic recovery; stabilising at 3-5% CAGR post-2024.
• Key levers and headwinds: VIP turnover is structurally lower following Macau's junket crackdown, shifting the focus to the higher-margin premium mass segment. Table hold percentages create significant quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility.
• Pricing dynamics: Minimum bets dictate volume; win percentage is mathematically fixed over the long term but fluctuates wildly in the short term (e.g., Las Vegas table win ranges from 22% to 26%).
• Revenue recognition: Recognised daily based on net win (gaming drop minus payouts).
• Seasonality: Las Vegas peaks during major events (Formula 1, Super Bowl, major conventions in Q1 and Q4); Macau peaks around Chinese New Year (Q1) and Golden Week (Q4).

Rooms Revenue

• Driver formula: Available Rooms x Occupancy % x Average Daily Rate (ADR)
• Historical growth rate: 4-6% CAGR driven by aggressive ADR pricing power in Las Vegas.
• Key levers and headwinds: Convention calendar strength, room renovation downtime (which temporarily removes inventory), and macroeconomic impacts on leisure travel.
• Pricing dynamics: Yield-managed daily; highly dynamic spot pricing.
• Revenue recognition: Recognised over the duration of the guest's stay.

Food and Beverage (F&B) Revenue

• Driver formula: Number of Covers x Average Check
• Historical growth rate: 5-7% CAGR, tracking closely with room occupancy and inflation.
• Key levers and headwinds: Nightlife and dayclub performance in Las Vegas are massive drivers of high-margin F&B revenue.
• Pricing dynamics: Premium pricing power due to captive audience and luxury positioning.

Entertainment, Retail and Other

• Driver formula: Leased Retail Square Footage x Rent per Sq Ft + Show Ticket Volumes x Average Ticket Price
• Historical growth rate: 2-4% CAGR.
• Key levers and headwinds: Luxury retail sales in Macau and Las Vegas; tenant turnover.

• Total assets: Approximately $14 billion.
• Key asset categories: Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E) dominates the balance sheet, representing the physical resort assets. Cash and cash equivalents are also held at high levels for liquidity.
• Goodwill & intangibles: Minimal relative to total assets, as Wynn builds organically rather than acquiring.
• Working capital profile:
• Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 10-15 days (mostly casino receivables from premium players).
• Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 30-40 days.
• Net working capital: Structurally negative. Customers pay cash upfront or via credit card for rooms and F&B, while suppliers are paid on 30-day terms. This negative working capital is a source of cash.
• PP&E: Buildings, land, and leasehold improvements. Useful lives range from 10 to 40 years for buildings.
• Right-of-use assets: Material due to land concessions in Macau and ground leases.

• Capex as % of revenue: 4-6% for maintenance; spikes significantly during development cycles.
• Maintenance vs. growth capex: Maintenance capex runs at approximately $250-300 million annually for room refreshes and slot machine replacements.
• Major capex programmes: The Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE. Wynn holds a 40% equity interest. By the end of 2025, Wynn had contributed $914.2 million in cash to this joint venture.
• M&A pattern: Organic developer. Wynn rarely acquires existing properties, preferring to design and build bespoke luxury resorts.

• Total debt: $10.55 billion as of December 31, 2025.
• Debt/EBITDAR ratio: Approximately 4.7x (based on 2025 EBITDAR of $2.22 billion).
• Key debt instruments: The debt is strictly siloed. It comprises $5.79 billion of Macau-related debt, $3.28 billion of Wynn Resorts Finance (WRF) debt, $876.6 million of Wynn Las Vegas debt, and $598.4 million of retail joint venture debt.
• Maturity profile: Staggered, with constant refinancing activity required to manage the massive principal balances.
• Interest rate profile: A mix of fixed-rate senior notes and floating-rate credit facilities.
• Covenants: Maintenance covenants on revolving credit facilities, primarily tied to maximum leverage ratios and minimum interest coverage within each specific borrowing silo.
• Dividend policy: Reinstated post-pandemic. Currently paying $0.25 per share quarterly ($1.00 annualised), representing a yield of approximately 1-2% depending on share price.

• Operating cash flow conversion: Strong. OCF regularly exceeds Net Income due to massive non-cash D&A charges.
• Free cash flow margin: 10-15% during non-development years, but currently depressed due to heavy equity contributions to the UAE joint venture.
• Major non-cash items: Depreciation, amortisation of land concessions in Macau, and stock-based compensation.
• Working capital cash flow impact: Generally a source of cash as revenues grow, due to the negative working capital dynamic.
• Capex intensity: Extremely high. The luxury standard requires constant reinvestment in room product and casino floor technology.

1. Assumptions: Hardcoded drivers for macroeconomic inputs, segment-level casino hold percentages, ADRs, occupancy, and corporate tax rates.
2. Summary Dashboard: Consolidated outputs, target valuation, and key credit metrics (Debt/EBITDAR, Interest Coverage).
3. Revenue Build - Las Vegas: Granular build of Casino, Rooms, F&B, and Entertainment revenues.
4. Revenue Build - Macau (Palace & Peninsula): Granular build separating VIP turnover and Mass market drop, plus non-gaming revenues.
5. Revenue Build - Boston: Regional casino revenue build.
6. Operating Costs & EBITDAR: Departmental expenses, G&A, and calculation of Adjusted Property EBITDAR by segment.
7. Income Statement: Consolidated GAAP income statement from Net Revenues down to Net Income Attributable to Wynn Resorts.
8. Balance Sheet: Assets, Liabilities, and Equity. Must include specific lines for Casino Receivables and Outstanding Chips/Tokens.
9. Cash Flow Statement: Indirect method starting from Net Income, adjusting for D&A, working capital changes, and breaking out UAE joint venture equity contributions in investing cash flows.
10. Debt Schedule: Siloed debt tranches (Macau, WRF, Las Vegas) with respective interest rates and mandatory amortisation.
11. DCF Valuation: Unlevered free cash flow build, WACC calculation, and terminal value based on EV/EBITDAR multiples.

1. `Las Vegas Casino Revenue = (Table Games Drop * Table Win %) + (Slot Handle * Slot Win %)`
2. `Macau Casino Revenue = (VIP Turnover * VIP Win %) + (Mass Market Drop * Mass Win %) + (Slot Handle * Slot Win %)`
3. `Rooms Revenue (Per Property) = Available Rooms * Occupancy % * ADR`
4. `F&B Revenue (Per Property) = Total Rooms Occupied * F&B Spend Per Occupied Room`
5. `Departmental Expenses = Segment Revenue * Historical Departmental Expense Margin`
6. `Adjusted Property EBITDAR = Total Operating Revenues - Departmental Expenses - G&A - Provision for Credit Losses`
7. `Consolidated EBITDA = Sum of Segment Adjusted Property EBITDAR - Corporate Expenses`
8. `Interest Expense = (Average Macau Debt * Macau Interest Rate) + (Average US Debt * US Interest Rate)`
9. `UAE JV Investment Balance = Prior Period Balance + Current Period Equity Contributions + (Share of JV Net Income/Loss)`
10. `Net Working Capital = (Receivables + Inventories) - (Accounts Payable + Customer Deposits + Outstanding Chips)`

• The Revenue Build sheets feed directly into the Operating Costs & EBITDAR sheet to calculate property-level margins.
• The Operating Costs & EBITDAR sheet feeds the top half of the Income Statement.
• The Debt Schedule calculates interest expense, which feeds the Income Statement. This creates a circular reference if excess cash is used to pay down revolving credit facilities, as interest expense impacts net income, which impacts cash generated, which impacts the debt balance.
• The Cash Flow Statement pulls Net Income from the Income Statement, D&A from the Operating Costs sheet, and Capex/JV contributions from the Assumptions sheet.
• The ending cash balance from the Cash Flow Statement feeds the Balance Sheet.

• Income Statement: Revenues are positive. All expenses (COGS, SG&A, Interest, Taxes) are negative. Net Income is the sum of these items.
• Balance Sheet: Assets are positive. Liabilities and Equity are positive. Total Assets must equal Total Liabilities plus Equity.
• Cash Flow Statement: Cash inflows (e.g., Net Income, depreciation add-back, increase in payables) are positive. Cash outflows (e.g., capex, debt repayment, dividends, increase in receivables) are negative.

• Siloed Debt Miscalculation: Wynn cannot freely move cash from Macau to the US to pay US debt without declaring dividends from the Macau subsidiary (which incurs withholding taxes). Modelling debt as a single consolidated pool will overstate liquidity.
• Table Hold Volatility: Assuming a flat table win percentage ignores reality. Las Vegas table hold fluctuates between 22% and 26%. A 200 basis point swing in hold percentage drops straight to EBITDAR, causing massive earnings misses or beats.
• UAE Joint Venture Accounting: Wynn Al Marjan Island is a 40% equity method investment. Its future revenues will not be consolidated into Wynn's top line. The model must capture the cash outflows as equity contributions and eventually capture the 40% share of net income below the operating line.
• Gaming Tax Underestimation: Macau gaming taxes are exceptionally high (~39% of gross gaming revenue). Applying a blended corporate tax rate to Macau casino revenues will drastically overstate profitability.
• Outstanding Chips Liability: The balance sheet must account for outstanding chips and tokens as a liability. If casino drop increases, this liability usually increases, providing a small working capital benefit.
• Macau Land Concessions: Macau properties operate on land concessions that expire and must be renewed. Amortisation of these concessions is a real non-cash expense that must be modelled separately from standard building depreciation.
• Pre-opening Expenses: These are excluded from Adjusted Property EBITDAR but hit GAAP Net Income. Failing to forecast these during the UAE build-up will overstate Net Income.
• Minority Interest: Wynn Macau, Limited is publicly traded in Hong Kong. Wynn Resorts owns approximately 72%. The model must deduct net income attributable to non-controlling interests to arrive at Net Income Attributable to Wynn Resorts.

• "Consolidated Adjusted Property EBITDAR margin should be in the 30-33% range; flag if outside this band."
• "Las Vegas table games win percentage must be constrained between 22% and 26% based on historical statistical norms."
• "Macau VIP win percentage should be modelled between 3.1% and 3.4% per company guidance."
• "Total Debt / Adjusted Property EBITDAR should remain between 4.0x and 5.5x; flag if leverage exceeds 6.0x."
• "Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every forecasted period."
• "Dividend payout must not exceed Free Cash Flow to Equity after mandatory debt amortisation and UAE equity contributions."
• "Macau gaming taxes must equal approximately 39% of Macau Gross Gaming Revenue."

• Filings: SEC EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K) and Wynn Resorts Investor Relations website for quarterly earnings presentations.
• Industry Data: Nevada Gaming Control Board (monthly gaming revenue reports for the Las Vegas Strip), Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) for monthly Macau gross gaming revenue.
• Key Peers: Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO).
• Macro Data: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) for visitor volume and city-wide occupancy trends.

• Wynn Resorts, Limited Q4 2025 Earnings Release and Financial Supplement (February 12, 2026).
• Wynn Resorts, Limited Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024.
• Nevada Gaming Control Board Historical Data.
• Macau DICJ Historical Gaming Statistics.