SaaS MRR/ARR Forecast Model Example
Tech & Software Financial Model (Free Excel Download)
Plan SaaS growth by connecting customer movements, MRR, ARR, retention, CAC payback, gross margin, and EBITDA to sharpen pricing, hiring, and fundraising decisions.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Forecast MRR and ARR for a multi-tier SaaS business across 36 months. The model explicitly separates logo motion (new, churn, ending) from MRR motion (new, expansion, contraction, churn) so retention and growth metrics reflect what investors actually expect to see.
Three pricing tiers - Starter, Growth, Enterprise - each carry their own price, mix share, and logo churn rate. New logos compound off a base monthly intake, splitting across tiers by mix. Each tier's ending logos roll forward as the next month's opening. MRR follows the same pattern: opening MRR plus new MRR (driven by new logos x tier price), plus expansion MRR (a percentage of opening), less contraction MRR (a percentage of opening) and churned MRR (logo churn applied to opening), produces ending MRR.
Outputs include total ARR (ending MRR x 12), ARR by tier, ARPU, period NRR and GRR, annualised net new ARR, and CAC payback in months. The simple P&L converts subscription revenue to gross profit at an assumed gross margin, applies S&M, R&D, and G&A as percentages of revenue, and produces EBITDA and EBITDA margin. The model is a focused subscription planner, not a full 3-statement model - link it downstream to the 3-statement template if you need balance sheet and cash flow.
What every model includes
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
What's inside the SaaS MRR/ARR Forecast Model Example
- Three pricing tiers with independent price, mix, and churn
- Monthly logo schedule: opening, new, churned, ending by tier
- MRR build: new, expansion, contraction, churn, ending
- ARR by tier, ARPU, NRR, GRR, net new ARR
- Subscription P&L through EBITDA with CAC and CAC payback
- NRR and GRR with consistent opening-MRR base
SaaS MRR/ARR Forecast Model: How the Template Works
This SaaS MRR/ARR forecast template supports a 36-month subscription business plan. It derives new logos from sales-capacity and retention assumptions, builds per-tier MRR, and rolls the result into revenue, headcount-driven opex, EBITDA, and cash runway.
This overview explains the documented calculation flow so you can assess whether the structure fits your planning needs.
Sales capacity starts the forecast
The forecast begins with a sales-engine build rather than an imposed growth curve.
- Monthly bookings come from BDR and AE headcount, a cohort-weighted ramp factor across a six-month productivity curve, and a monthly quota per AE, plus an inbound bookings stream that grows at its own rate.
- Total bookings divided by blended ACV gives total new logos.
- Because bookings depend on rep count, changes in hiring plans flow directly into logo acquisition, linking sales investment to customer growth.
From logos to tier-level MRR
New logos are split across Starter, Growth, and Enterprise using tier mix assumptions, with Enterprise treated as the residual so the tiers always sum to the total.
- Each tier then rolls forward from opening logos, adding new logos and subtracting churned logos measured against the opening balance.
- MRR applies tier pricing to those logo counts and adds expansion while subtracting contraction and churn, both calculated on opening MRR.
- Ending MRR becomes opening MRR for the next month, and the sum across tiers produces total MRR and net new MRR.
Billings, revenue, and cash
Contract mix separates annual upfront and monthly business. New ARR sold is split by contract type; annual upfront billings include new annual contracts plus renewals carried forward twelve months and adjusted by trailing logo retention, while monthly billings represent the monthly portion of ending MRR.
- Recognised revenue equals ending MRR on a ratable basis, and deferred revenue rolls forward as opening deferred plus annual billings minus recognised annual revenue. On the cost side, headcount pools for S&M, R&D, and G&A drive loaded monthly compensation, which together with marketing programs and other non-comp lines builds total opex.
- EBITDA is gross profit less total opex, and cumulative EBITDA bridges opening cash to the closing cash balance and runway estimate.
Retention and unit economics outputs
A 36-by-36 cohort triangle tracks each acquisition vintage and decays it by blended monthly churn, producing cumulative retention at ages 12 and 24 and a trailing-twelve-month logo retention figure used in billings. The summary tabs report ARR as twelve times ending MRR, monthly and trailing-twelve-month NRR and GRR, ARPU, net new ARR, Magic Number, CAC payback, LTV by tier, and LTV/CAC.
- Ten validation checks test mix, ARR identity, tier sums, revenue ties, and healthier thresholds such as LTV/CAC at or above three, helping a reviewer catch structural inconsistencies. Practical use is therefore a connected view of growth, retention, sales productivity, and cash needs, with customisation focused on sales-engine, opex, headcount, contract-mix, and expansion assumptions.
- The public download contains values only, not live formulas.
Formatted to IB standards
Named theme colors repaint the whole workbook in one click, on top of an investment-banking structure with clear input, output, and cross-sheet reference styling - brand-ready, institutional-grade, and fully auditable.
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
Over my years in the finance industry I kept building the same models over and over again. Same structure, same assumptions, different logo. So I started building frameworks to turn them into clean, reusable templates.
Every model here is one I’d actually use for a client, and I personally vet each one before it goes up.
I’m not an expert in every industry, but I’ve built enough models to know what belongs in one. And when something is completely foreign to me, I reach out to my network for experts to work on our models with us.
Having a template library on hand cuts a first build from hours to minutes.
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Frequently asked
What is a SaaS MRR/ARR forecast model?+
It forecasts subscription revenue by tracking how customers and MRR move each month - new logos, churn, upsell, and downsell - then annualises the ending MRR to ARR.
How is NRR calculated?+
NRR = (Opening MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Opening MRR. The model computes it period-by-period against the prior-month ending balance, not as an average.
What is the difference between GRR and NRR?+
GRR ignores expansion. It tells you how much of last month's MRR you kept before any upsell. NRR includes expansion, so a healthy SaaS business can have NRR above 100% even with some churn.
Can I use this for product-led growth?+
Yes. Set the Starter tier price low, increase the Starter mix share, and use New-Logo MoM Growth to model funnel acceleration. Expansion MRR captures upgrade-on-usage.
Does it include sales rep capacity?+
No - this template uses a blended new-logo intake and CAC. For sales-rep-driven forecasts use the Forecasting Revenue with Sales Reps model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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