Restaurant Model

The model is built around a defined multi-unit rollout schedule, with new units opened in specific years to reach eight cumulative stores by Year 5. Revenue is driven by a daypart matrix covering breakfast, lunch, dinner, late-night, and brunch, each with its own operating days, covers per seat, and average check.

• A same-store sales multiplier compounds traffic and ticket growth annually. Off-premise sales are split across three platforms—DoorDash, Uber Eats, and direct online—each with a distinct mix and commission rate, so the model reflects the net revenue impact of delivery.
• Unit maturity follows a ramp curve where first-year units achieve a percentage of mature average unit volume, rising in subsequent years, which affects how revenue scales across the chain.

Per-unit revenue, labour, and operating costs are computed on a mature-unit basis and then scaled to chain totals using weighted-unit equivalents, which combine cumulative units with a maturity factor. This means revenue, cost of goods sold, labour, and other operating expenses grow with both the number of units and their individual maturity.

• Occupancy costs, however, scale by physical unit count because rent does not ramp with maturity. The labour schedule uses eleven roles, each with full-time-equivalent counts, hours, wages, payroll markup, and annual wage inflation.
• Cost of goods sold is broken into food categories and beverage costs, each with its own inflation rate, while operating expenses are split into fixed and variable components, reflecting operating leverage as revenue grows.

The model produces a full three-statement financial forecast: income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. On the income statement, restaurant-level EBITDA is calculated after deducting cost of goods sold, labour, and operating expenses, then corporate general and administrative costs are subtracted to arrive at chain EBITDA.

• The balance sheet includes a balance check row to ensure assets equal liabilities plus equity. The cash flow statement uses the indirect method.
• An equity returns block calculates IRR, NPV, MOIC, fractional payback, and debt service coverage ratios, using a Year-0 equity outflow and subsequent capital calls. A KPI scorecard summarises metrics such as average unit volume, sales per square foot, covers per seat per day, prime cost percentage, and restaurant-level margin.

The model consolidates all hardcoded inputs into an assumptions sheet, making it straightforward to adjust drivers such as rollout timing, average unit volume ramp, wage inflation, and platform commission rates. It is designed as a single-concept, annual model and does not include monthly seasonality, dividend distributions, or a franchise versus corporate-owned split.

• Pre-opening expenses are treated as period costs rather than capitalised, and the debt schedule uses level-payment amortisation. The returns calculation assumes all equity returns are realised at a terminal exit in Year 5.
• These design choices make the model suitable for evaluating a venture-backed restaurant concept at a small chain scale, providing a structured way to test how operating decisions affect financial outcomes.