Ball Financial Model
Packaging Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
Ball Corporation is the world's largest manufacturer of recyclable aluminum beverage containers, serving major beverage, personal care, and household brands globally.
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About this model
This model forecasts Ball Corporation's free cash flow and evaluates its equity valuation to determine if the stock is an attractive investment following its transformation into a pure-play global aluminum packaging company after the 2024 divestiture of its aerospace division.
Ball Corporation is the world's largest manufacturer of recyclable aluminum beverage containers, serving major beverage, personal care, and household brands globally. The company operates an asset-heavy manufacturing business model underpinned by long-term supply contracts that typically include pass-through mechanisms for raw material (aluminum) costs.
Business segments (based on 2025 net sales):
- Beverage Packaging, North and Central America (~48% of revenue)
- Beverage Packaging, EMEA (~30% of revenue)
- Beverage Packaging, South America (~16% of revenue)
- Other (Aerosol packaging, aluminum cups, and rest-of-world operations) (~6% of revenue)
The company holds a dominant competitive position in a highly consolidated global oligopoly alongside Crown Holdings and Ardagh Metal Packaging. A major recent event was the February 2024 completion of the sale of its Aerospace business to BAE Systems for $5.6 billion, with the $4.5 billion after-tax proceeds used to significantly reduce debt and fund a large share repurchase programme.
The downloadable Ball financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsBall financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.81B | $13.37B | $12.06B | $11.79B | $13.16B |
| Cost of sales (excluding depreciation and amortization) | -$11.09B | -$12.77B | -$11.36B | -$9.35B | -$10.58B |
| Business consolidation and other activities | -$142.0M | -$71.0M | -$153.0M | -$420.0M | -$41.0M |
| Net income | $878.0M | $732.0M | $711.0M | $4.01B | $915.0M |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
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How to build a detailed financial model for Ball
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
Beverage Packaging, North and Central America
- Segment name: Beverage packaging, North and Central America
- Revenue driver formula: Regional Unit Volume (Billions of Cans) x Average Revenue per 1,000 Cans
- Historical growth rate: 1% to 3% volume CAGR, though reported revenue fluctuates heavily with aluminum prices.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Driven by the secular shift from plastic to sustainable aluminum packaging, offset by mature carbonated soft drink volume declines in the US.
- Pricing dynamics: Contractual. Multi-year contracts typically pass through London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices and regional premiums directly to the customer.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time or at a point in time when control transfers.
- Seasonality: Stronger in Q2 and Q3 due to higher summer beverage consumption in the Northern Hemisphere.
Beverage Packaging, EMEA
- Segment name: Beverage packaging, EMEA
- Revenue driver formula: Regional Unit Volume x Average Revenue per 1,000 Cans (adjusted for FX)
- Historical growth rate: 3% to 5% volume CAGR.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Expanding energy drink markets and legislative pushes for recyclable packaging in Europe, offset by foreign exchange volatility.
- Pricing dynamics: Contractual pass-through of metal costs, similar to North America.
- Revenue recognition notes: Standard point-of-sale or over-time recognition.
- Seasonality: Peaks in the European summer months (Q2 and Q3).
Beverage Packaging, South America
- Segment name: Beverage packaging, South America
- Revenue driver formula: Regional Unit Volume x Average Revenue per 1,000 Cans (adjusted for FX)
- Historical growth rate: 4% to 6% volume CAGR.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: High growth in Brazilian beer and energy drink markets, offset by macroeconomic volatility and currency devaluation in Argentina and Brazil.
- Pricing dynamics: Contractual pass-through, but highly sensitive to local currency translation against the US Dollar.
- Revenue recognition notes: Standard point-of-sale or over-time recognition.
- Seasonality: Stronger in Q4 and Q1, aligning with the Southern Hemisphere summer and Carnival season.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line-by-line breakdown: Raw materials (aluminum coil is the vast majority), coatings, energy, direct manufacturing labour, and freight.
- Gross margin range: 18% to 21% historically.
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Aluminum is the primary exposure. Because metal costs are passed through to customers, absolute gross profit dollars are protected, but gross margin percentages mathematically compress when aluminum prices rise and expand when they fall.
- How COGS scales with revenue: Step-function scaling based on plant capacity utilisation. High operating leverage once a plant exceeds 85% utilisation.
Operating Expenses
- R&D: Minimal, typically less than 1% of revenue.
- SG&A: Primarily corporate overhead, IT, and administrative headcount. Runs at approximately 4% to 5% of revenue.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: High due to the capital-intensive nature of can manufacturing. D&A typically runs at 5% to 6% of revenue.
- Stock-Based Compensation: Moderate, typically around 0.5% of revenue.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Frequent but small, usually related to footprint optimisation (closing older plants to open newer, more efficient ones).
Margin Profile
- Gross margin: 18% to 21%.
- EBITDA margin: 14% to 16%.
- Operating margin: 10% to 12%.
- Net margin: 6% to 8% (from continuing operations).
- Segment-level margins: South America typically generates the highest comparable operating margins (14% to 16%), followed by EMEA (12% to 13%) and North America (11% to 12%).
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: Approximately $17 billion to $18 billion.
- Key asset categories: PP&E is the largest asset class (manufacturing plants, bodymakers, neckers), followed by Goodwill from historical acquisitions (such as the Rexam acquisition).
- Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets: Approximately 35% to 40%.
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 35 to 45 days.
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): 45 to 55 days (aluminum coils and finished cans).
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 80 to 100 days (extended terms with major aluminum suppliers).
- Net working capital as % of revenue: Typically slightly negative or near zero.
- Funding growth: The company benefits from favourable supplier terms, meaning working capital is often a source of cash during growth periods.
- PP&E: Consists of land, buildings, and heavy machinery. Useful lives range from 15 to 40 years for buildings and 5 to 15 years for machinery.
- Right-of-use assets: Material, representing leased warehouse space and some equipment, typically around $500 million to $700 million.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: 4% to 6% in a normalised environment (peaked at over 10% during the 2020 to 2022 capacity buildout).
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Approximately 40% maintenance and 60% growth.
- Major capex programmes underway: The company recently completed a massive multi-year global capacity expansion and is now in a period of lower capital intensity, focusing on optimising existing footprint.
- Capitalised software: Minimal.
- M&A pattern: Historically transformational (Rexam in 2016), but currently focused on organic growth, footprint optimisation, and bolt-on acquisitions (e.g., Florida Can Manufacturing in 2025).
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: Approximately $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion post-Aerospace divestiture.
- Debt/EBITDA ratio: Target is approximately 3.0x comparable EBITDA.
- Credit rating: BB+ / Ba1 (high-yield, crossover territory).
- Key debt instruments: Senior notes (bonds) and a multi-currency revolving credit facility.
- Maturity profile: Well-laddered with average maturities exceeding 5 years.
- Interest rate profile: Predominantly fixed-rate bonds with a weighted average cost of debt around 4.5% to 5.5%.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. The company used approximately $2 billion of the Aerospace sale proceeds for buybacks in 2024 and continues to return free cash flow to shareholders.
- Dividend policy: Regular quarterly dividend, yielding approximately 1.0% to 1.5%, with a payout ratio of 20% to 25%.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: Strong, typically 1.2x to 1.5x Net Income due to high depreciation add-backs.
- Free cash flow margin: 6% to 8% of revenue.
- Major non-cash items: Depreciation and amortisation (largest driver), deferred taxes, and stock-based compensation.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Often a source of cash due to structural payables advantages with metal suppliers.
- Capex intensity: Moderating significantly post-2023, driving a step-change increase in free cash flow generation.
- Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate: Cash taxes are typically lower than GAAP taxes due to accelerated depreciation on heavy machinery.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded inputs for macroeconomic drivers, segment volume growth, pricing, margins, working capital days, and capital structure targets.
- Scenarios: Base, Bull, and Bear case toggles driving the Assumptions sheet.
- Revenue & Segment Build: Detailed build of volume (billions of units) and revenue per 1,000 units for North & Central America, EMEA, South America, and Other. Calculates segment comparable operating earnings.
- Income Statement: Consolidated P&L from Net Sales down to Net Earnings Attributable to Ball Corporation.
- Working Capital: Schedules for Receivables, Inventory, Payables, and Contract Assets/Liabilities based on turnover days.
- PP&E & Capex: Roll-forward of gross PP&E, accumulated depreciation, and capital expenditures.
- Debt Schedule: Tranche-by-tranche debt roll-forward, interest expense calculation, and mandatory debt paydowns.
- Cash Flow Statement: Standard 3-section cash flow (Operating, Investing, Financing) linking net income to the change in cash.
- Balance Sheet: Standard balancing statement mirroring the 10-K presentation.
- Valuation: DCF model using unlevered free cash flow, WACC calculation, and terminal value, plus a comparable company multiples check.
Key Financial Relationships
- NCA Segment Revenue = NCA Volume (Billions of Units) x NCA Revenue per 1,000 Units
- EMEA Segment Revenue = EMEA Volume (Billions of Units) x EMEA Revenue per 1,000 Units
- South America Segment Revenue = South America Volume (Billions of Units) x South America Revenue per 1,000 Units
- Consolidated Net Sales = NCA Revenue + EMEA Revenue + South America Revenue + Other Revenue
- Segment Comparable Operating Earnings = Segment Revenue x Segment Operating Margin
- Consolidated Gross Profit = Consolidated Net Sales - Cost of Sales (excluding D&A) - Depreciation & Amortisation related to cost of sales
- Accounts Receivable = (Consolidated Net Sales / 365) x DSO
- Inventory = (Cost of Sales / 365) x DIO
- Accounts Payable = (Cost of Sales / 365) x DPO
- Interest Expense = Average Total Debt x Weighted Average Interest Rate
- Free Cash Flow = Cash Provided by Operating Activities - Capital Expenditures
- Net Debt = Total Interest-Bearing Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- The Assumptions sheet dictates the growth and margin profiles in the Revenue & Segment Build.
- The Revenue & Segment Build feeds Consolidated Net Sales and Segment Operating Earnings into the Income Statement.
- Net Sales and Cost of Sales from the Income Statement drive the Working Capital sheet calculations.
- The Working Capital changes and Net Income feed the Cash Flow Statement.
- The Cash Flow Statement determines the ending cash balance and debt paydown capacity, which feeds the Debt Schedule.
- The Debt Schedule calculates Interest Expense, creating a circular reference with the Income Statement (Net Income -> Cash Flow -> Debt -> Interest -> Net Income). A circularity breaker toggle must be included.
- All ending balances from the schedules feed the Balance Sheet.
Sign Convention
- Revenues, assets, and equity balances are entered as positive numbers.
- Expenses (COGS, SG&A, Interest) are entered as positive numbers and subtracted in formulas.
- Liability balances are entered as positive numbers.
- On the Cash Flow Statement, cash inflows are positive and cash outflows (e.g., Capex, Dividends, Debt Repayment) are negative.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Failing to exclude the Aerospace segment from historical comparisons. The model must treat Aerospace as discontinued operations for all periods prior to its February 2024 sale to ensure comparable run-rates.
- Misinterpreting revenue growth as volume growth. Because Ball passes through aluminum costs, a 10% revenue increase might simply reflect higher LME aluminum prices while actual unit volumes are flat.
- Gross margin percentage distortion. Pass-through pricing means gross profit dollars remain stable when aluminum prices spike, but the gross margin percentage mathematically shrinks. The model should focus on gross profit per 1,000 units rather than pure margin percentages.
- Currency translation impacts. The EMEA and South America segments are highly sensitive to the Euro and Brazilian Real. The model should ideally forecast local currency volume and price, then apply an FX overlay.
- Overestimating capital expenditures. Ball completed a massive capacity expansion cycle in 2022/2023. Forward capex assumptions must reflect the new, lower maintenance-focused reality.
- Ignoring the impact of the massive 2024 share repurchases on EPS calculations. The share count dropped significantly following the Aerospace sale.
- Miscalculating working capital cash flows. Ball's extended payable terms with aluminum suppliers mean that working capital is structurally different from standard manufacturing peers.
- Failing to account for the seasonal cash flow drain in Q1, which requires drawing on the revolving credit facility before cash is generated in Q2 and Q3.
Validation Checks
- Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every forecasted period.
- Capex as a percentage of revenue should normalise in the 4.0% to 5.5% range; flag if it exceeds 6.0%.
- Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA should trend toward management's stated target of 3.0x.
- Operating Cash Flow to Net Income conversion should consistently remain above 1.1x due to heavy depreciation add-backs.
- Consolidated Gross Margin should remain within the historical 18% to 21% band.
- Total global unit volume should reconcile to approximately 110 to 115 billion units in the base year.
- Interest expense should logically align with the debt balance multiplied by a blended rate of roughly 5.0%.
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCA Volume Growth | 1.5 | % | Mature market, slight growth from sustainable packaging shift |
| EMEA Volume Growth | 3.0 | % | Continued penetration of energy drinks and regulatory tailwinds |
| South America Volume Growth | 4.5 | % | Higher structural growth in Brazilian beverage consumption |
| NCA Revenue per 1,000 Units | 125.80 | $ | Based on 2025 segment revenue divided by ~50B units |
| EMEA Revenue per 1,000 Units | 104.70 | $ | Based on 2025 segment revenue divided by ~38B units |
| South America Rev per 1,000 Units | 108.00 | $ | Based on 2025 segment revenue divided by ~20B units |
| Consolidated Gross Margin | 19.5 | % | Aligns with historical averages excluding commodity spikes |
| SG&A as % of Revenue | 4.5 | % | Consistent with historical corporate overhead run-rate |
| D&A as % of Revenue | 5.5 | % | Reflects asset-heavy footprint and recent capacity additions |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 40 | Days | Calculated from historical receivables and revenue |
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | 50 | Days | Calculated from historical inventory and COGS |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | 90 | Days | Reflects extended supplier terms with metal providers |
| Capex as % of Revenue | 4.5 | % | Management guidance for normalised capital intensity |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0 | % | Blended global statutory rate |
| Weighted Average Interest Rate | 5.0 | % | Based on current fixed-rate bond portfolio |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | 25.0 | % | Aligns with historical dividend policy |
| WACC | 8.0 | % | Standard cost of capital for a mature packaging business |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0 | % | Aligns with long-term global GDP and inflation |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- Filings: SEC EDGAR (Ball Corporation 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings) and the Ball Investor Relations website.
- Key Peers: Crown Holdings (CCK), Silgan Holdings (SLGN), Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP), O-I Glass (OI).
- Industry Data: The Aluminum Association (for can shipment data), London Metal Exchange (LME) for aluminum pricing trends.
- Consensus Estimates: Bloomberg or FactSet for forward-looking volume and margin consensus.
Sources
Do more with the Ball model
Frequently asked
What is Ball Corporation's primary business focus after its recent transformation?+
Ball Corporation is now a pure-play global aluminum packaging company, primarily manufacturing recyclable aluminum beverage containers. It serves major beverage, personal care, and household brands worldwide.
How does Ball Corporation generate revenue, and what are its main business segments?+
Ball Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of aluminum beverage containers, operating an asset-heavy manufacturing business model with long-term supply contracts. Its main segments include Beverage Packaging in North/Central America, EMEA, and South America, alongside other packaging products.
What is the typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue for Ball Corporation?+
Ball Corporation's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is typically 4% to 6% in a normalized environment. This figure peaked at over 10% during a recent capacity buildout from 2020 to 2022.
What is the main purpose of the financial model for Ball Corporation?+
The financial model aims to forecast Ball Corporation's free cash flow and evaluate its equity valuation. This helps determine if the stock is an attractive investment following its transformation into a pure-play global aluminum packaging company.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Ball Corporation?+
Yes, an Excel financial model for Ball Corporation is available for download. This model forecasts the company's financials from FY2026 through FY2030.
How did Ball Corporation's recent divestiture impact its financial structure?+
The February 2024 sale of its Aerospace business for $5.6 billion allowed Ball Corporation to significantly reduce debt. The after-tax proceeds of $4.5 billion also funded a large share repurchase program, transforming the company into a pure-play aluminum packaging entity.
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