Moving Company Model

The model separates local and long-distance moves into two revenue engines that draw on the same finite crew-hours. Local jobs are priced as jobs multiplied by hours per job and an hourly crew rate.

• Long-distance jobs use a weight-and-distance tariff, calculated as weight in hundreds of pounds times miles times a rate per hundredweight-mile. Local demand is always served first in-house.
• Any remaining crew-hours cap how many long-distance jobs the company handles directly, with excess long-distance demand brokered to partner agents for a fee. That broker valve prevents turning away business, but brokered loads earn only a fraction of the equivalent in-house revenue, tying total revenue and margin directly to crew availability.

On in-house long-distance jobs, the company sells Full Value Protection, a priced liability product. The model rolls a claims reserve forward by estimating claims incurred from FVP jobs, an incidence rate, declared value, and average severity, then paying those claims with a one-year lag.

• The reserve grows as FVP attach rises, but remains modest in absolute terms. This liability is netted against working capital as a source of cash, reflecting money owed but not yet paid.
• Brokered loads carry the partner agent's liability, so the FVP line only applies to in-house long-distance jobs.

Valuation premium revenue is also modeled as a separate line, growing with attach rate on in-house long-distance jobs. Together, these mechanics make the insurance-like side of moving explicit rather than treating it as deferred revenue.

Crews are the core capacity driver. The model starts with 10 crews, holds them flat for three years, then expands to 15 by Year 7.

• New crews are only 50% productive in their first year, reflecting real onboarding time. Local demand grows 4.5% annually, while long-distance demand grows 7.0%, creating a squeeze on crew-hours until the hiring catch-up phase.
• Costs are volume-derived: crew wages track hours worked, linehaul driver pay covers multi-day transit separately, and fuel/maintenance scales with miles. Other operating expenses include insurance, marketing, G&A, dispatch labor, and corporate overhead, each with their own growth rates.

This structure shows how capacity constraints ripple through revenue and margins rather than assuming smooth growth.

The model builds an unlevered free cash flow bridge starting from NOPAT, adding depreciation, subtracting capital expenditures and changes in working capital. Working capital nets accounts receivable, accounts payable, and the claims reserve, with the reserve treated as a liability that provides cash.

• Capex covers new-crew trucks, fleet replacement, and facility buildout. The discounted cash flow uses a WACC of 10.5% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% to arrive at enterprise value, then subtracts net debt to get equity value and value per share.
• The dashboard summarizes crews, brokered share, FVP attach, revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, claims reserve, and valuation metrics, offering a compact view of operating and financial outcomes.