Ocean freight revenue = laden TEUs × a blended freight rate per TEUShipping Model
Infrastructure Financial Model (Free Excel Download)
Model vessel acquisition, charter rates, utilisation, voyage profit, technical operating costs, dry-docking, debt, and asset-level returns.
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About this model
Model shipping company economics including vessel deployment, freight rates, bunker costs, and voyage profitability without oversimplifying rate volatility. The model builds fleet capacity from vessel composition (vessel count by type and size), calculates utilisation rates and laden TEUs (accounting for trade imbalance deadheading), and projects revenue from spot and contract freight rates. Voyage costs include bunker fuel (the most volatile input, £400-£800/tonne), port dues, canal tolls (Suez, Panama), and cargo handling. Operating expenses cover vessel crewing, maintenance, insurance, and dry-docking (every 5 years).
Key mechanics: freight rates are separated into long-term contract (stable, 8-10 months ahead) and spot market (volatile, daily), allowing scenario modelling of trough vs peak cycles. Bunker costs are modelled separately with hedging dynamics. Vessel utilisation (80-90%) accounts for trade imbalances; depots time for dry-docking (off-hire revenue loss). Debt structure includes ship mortgages (60-70% LTV) and sale-leaseback financing for chartered tonnage. EBITDA margins range 15-25% in mid-cycle; can swing to 5% in trough and 40%+ in peaks.
Target: shipping investors, banks financing vessel acquisitions, and operators evaluating fleet expansion. Works with scrubber installation ROI, ESG (dual-fuel vessel capex), and alliance profitability splits.
What every model includes
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
What's inside the Shipping Model
- Voyage economics with bunker consumption and port costs
- Time charter equivalent (TCE) rate calculations
- Daily technical OPEX including crew, insurance, and maintenance
- Dry-docking and special survey capital scheduling
- Ship mortgage financing with LTV and DSCR tracking
- Fleet composition by vessel type and size
- Utilization rates and voyage scheduling
- Freight rate assumptions by trade lane and market
How the Shipping Model Evaluates Fleet Economics and Investment Returns
This shipping model is a financial framework for evaluating container line investments. It connects fleet capacity and utilisation to revenue, voyage costs, vessel opex, debt, and cash flow, then produces a discounted valuation.
The model is built for analysts assessing whether a carrier's fleet, cost structure, and capital requirements justify investment or lending. Rates and financial results described here reflect illustrative model settings, not industry benchmarks.
What drives the shipping model's operating results
The model's operating engine starts with fleet capacity and utilisation. Available TEU capacity is the sum of each vessel's TEU capacity multiplied by its operating days.
- Laden TEUs are then available capacity times the utilisation rate, which is capped at 95%. Ocean freight revenue equals laden TEUs times a blended freight rate per TEU.
- This structure makes revenue sensitive to both how many ships are deployed and how fully they are loaded, reflecting real trade imbalances and seasonal demand.
The calculation flow from fleet schedule to valuation
The Fleet Schedule is foundational and feeds Voyage Revenue, Voyage Costs, Capex, and Debt.
- Debt drawdowns equal vessel purchase price times loan-to-value.
- The model then builds the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow, with interest based on beginning-of-period balances to avoid circularity.
- Free cash flow is calculated as EBIT times one minus tax, plus depreciation and amortisation, minus capital expenditure and changes in net working capital, discounted at WACC with a Gordon-growth terminal value to produce enterprise and equity value.
Revenue and cost relationships captured in the model
Revenue includes ocean freight, surcharges, demurrage and detention, and slot-exchange income. Surcharges follow bunker fuel and currency inputs.
- Costs are split into voyage expenses and vessel operating costs. Bunker cost equals vessels times days at sea times daily consumption times bunker price.
- Cargo handling is laden TEUs times stevedoring cost per TEU. Vessel opex covers crewing, insurance, maintenance, and stores.
The model also accounts for charter hire, container leasing, EU ETS, and SG&A.
Bunker cost = vessels × days at sea × daily consumption × bunker priceHow the model supports practical investment appraisal
The model includes IFRS 16 lease schedules for chartered vessels, debt schedules for ship mortgages, and a valuation sheet that bridges enterprise value to equity value.
- Unit economics provide a per-TEU cost waterfall and contribution margin.
- Validation checks cover balance sheet integrity, utilisation caps, LTV limits, cash floors, and covenant ratios like ICR and DSCR.
- Together these features let an analyst test how fleet composition, freight rates, and financing structure affect equity returns and credit metrics.
income_statement.xlsx
income_statement.xlsx
income_statement.xlsx
Formatted to IB standards
Named theme colors repaint the whole workbook in one click, on top of an investment-banking structure with clear input, output, and cross-sheet reference styling - brand-ready, institutional-grade, and fully auditable.
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
Over my years in the finance industry I kept building the same models over and over again. Same structure, same assumptions, different logo. So I started building frameworks to turn them into clean, reusable templates.
Every model here is one I’d actually use for a client, and I personally vet each one before it goes up.
I’m not an expert in every industry, but I’ve built enough models to know what belongs in one. And when something is completely foreign to me, I reach out to my network for experts to work on our models with us.
Having a template library on hand cuts a first build from hours to minutes.
Need help finding your model? You’ll find me in the Finamodel app!
Frequently asked
What is a shipping financial model?+
It is a model used to evaluate vessel-level profitability, fleet operations, and maritime investment returns by forecasting voyage revenue, operating costs, and financing.
What should a shipping model include?+
It should include voyage economics, TCE calculations, bunker costs, technical OPEX, dry-docking schedules, and ship mortgage financing with covenant tracking.
Who uses shipping models?+
Ship owners, maritime analysts, investment bankers, fleet managers, and maritime lenders use them for vessel acquisition, operational budgeting, and financing.
What is the time charter equivalent (TCE) rate?+
TCE is the standard measure of vessel earnings per day, calculated by subtracting voyage costs from gross revenue and dividing by the number of operating days.
How are dry-docking costs handled?+
Dry-docking costs are scheduled based on survey cycles and can be capitalised and amortised or expensed directly, depending on the accounting approach selected.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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