Streaming Model

The streaming model is built around subscriber movement, tier mix and content investment. Ad-free and ad-supported subscribers are tracked separately, with gross additions, churn and migration between tiers determining closing balances.

• Churn is annualised from monthly rates and applied to opening subscribers, avoiding circularity. Revenue per user combines subscription ARPU with advertising yield, where ad revenue depends on hours watched, ad load and CPM.
• Content spend is set as a percentage of revenue and split between originals and licensed titles, with originals amortised on an accelerated schedule and licensed content straight-line over its licence term. Payment processing and app-store commissions are treated as variable costs, and technology, marketing, G&A and support form the operating expense base.

The calculation flow starts with the subscriber forecast, which feeds the revenue build. Subscription revenue is closing subscribers times monthly ARPU times twelve, while advertising revenue is ad-tier subscribers times monthly hours times ad minutes per hour times CPM divided by one thousand, annualised.

• Licensing revenue is held flat. Total revenue then drives content spend, which is separated into a cash outflow in investing activities and an amortisation charge in cost of goods sold.
• This distinction prevents double-counting and ensures the content library roll-forward stays accurate. The income statement deducts content amortisation, streaming delivery and payment processing to arrive at gross profit, then subtracts operating expenses to reach EBITDA.

Depreciation, interest and tax lead to net income, which feeds retained earnings and the balance sheet.

The model produces a dashboard with headline KPIs by year, including closing subscribers, tier mix, blended ARPU, revenue growth, gross margin, EBITDA and free cash flow.

• Unit economics such as customer acquisition cost, lifetime value, LTV/CAC and payback are calculated from marketing spend, churn and gross margin.
• The income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement are fully integrated, with working capital driven by days sales outstanding, days payable outstanding and deferred revenue months.
• A dedicated valuation sheet cross-checks multiple-based and discounted cash flow approaches using explicit-period free cash flow and a terminal growth assumption, providing both enterprise and equity values.

This streaming model is intended for investment, acquisition or funding decisions. A scenario selector on the assumptions sheet allows switching between Base, Bull and Bear cases, which adjusts subscriber adds, churn, ARPU and cost drivers across the model.

• Sensitivity to content spend, pricing and churn can be explored by changing inputs, and the model includes validation checks such as balance sheet balancing, positive cash, gross margin range and improving EBITDA.
• The public download is a values-only preview, so it shows the structure and logic without live formulas; users can review the design and output format before deciding whether to build their own version or request the full model.