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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Hilton Worldwide. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Hilton Worldwide’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$11.31B
from $10.23B
FCF FY30
$3.28B
Margin 29.0%
Enterprise value
$49.97B
4.9× LTM revenue
Equity value
$40.12B
Net debt $9.85B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
2.0%
-10.0%baseline 2.0%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
0.9%
0.0%baseline 0.9%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Hilton Worldwide forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Hilton Worldwide's primary business model?+

Hilton Worldwide operates as a leading global hospitality company, primarily franchising and managing hotels and resorts under 25 distinct brands. It employs an asset-light business model where independent third-party owners fund hotel construction, allowing Hilton to collect percentage-based fees on room revenue.

How does Hilton Worldwide generate most of its revenue?+

The vast majority of Hilton Worldwide's core revenue and earnings are generated through its Management and Franchise segments. The company collects percentage-based fees from independent third-party owners based on room revenue, rather than owning most of the physical hotel assets.

Why does Hilton Worldwide typically have negative net working capital?+

Hilton Worldwide structurally maintains negative net working capital due to its operational model. The company collects franchise fees and loyalty program funds upfront, which creates a working capital advantage that helps fund its growth initiatives.

What is Hilton Worldwide's capital expenditure strategy?+

Hilton's capital expenditure is minimal, less than 2% of total revenue, with the majority directed towards growth capex for corporate IT, reservation systems, and software development. The company also capitalizes significant internal software development costs, which are amortized over 3 to 5 years.

What is the main purpose of the Hilton Worldwide financial model?+

The financial model aims to project Hilton Worldwide's future cash flows and earnings to determine an intrinsic equity valuation. It also assesses the company's capacity for continued share repurchases under its asset-light business model.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Hilton Worldwide?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Hilton Worldwide. This model provides financial projections for the forecast horizon of FY2026–FY2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future performance.

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