Home Depot (HD) Financial Forecast Calculator
Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Home Depot. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Home Depot’s most recent SEC filings.
Assumptions
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Keep iterating on the Home Depot forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.
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Frequently asked
What is Home Depot's primary business model and market position?+
Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer, selling building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden items, and decor through over 2,300 stores and a digital platform. It holds the number one market share position in the US home improvement market, primarily competing with Lowe's.
How does Home Depot generate its revenue, and what are its key growth drivers?+
Home Depot's revenue is primarily driven by the formula "Total Customer Transactions x Average Ticket" across its retail stores and online sales. Key macro drivers influencing growth include housing turnover, home equity levels, mortgage rates, and the age of the housing stock.
What is Home Depot's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+
Home Depot's capital expenditure typically ranges between 1.8% and 2.2% of its revenue. This spending is split approximately 40% for maintenance, such as store refreshes, and 60% for growth initiatives like supply chain buildout and digital platform enhancements.
What are the key revenue growth and margin assumptions used in the Home Depot financial model?+
The financial model for Home Depot uses a Revenue Growth assumption of approximately 8.48%. Other key financial assumptions include COGS at about 66.28% of revenue and Selling, General, and Administrative (SGA) expenses at roughly 17.47% of revenue.
How does Home Depot's working capital profile impact its financial model?+
Home Depot's net working capital is structurally negative, as the company uses its scale to negotiate favourable payment terms with suppliers, effectively funding its inventory through accounts payable. Key working capital metrics include Days Sales Outstanding (7-10 days), Days Inventory Outstanding (75-85 days), and Days Payable Outstanding (45-55 days).
Where can I find a comprehensive equity valuation model for Home Depot?+
A downloadable Excel model is available for Home Depot, offering a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool. This model focuses on comparable sales growth, the mix between Pro and DIY customers, and the financial integration of the recent SRS Distribution acquisition.
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