J.B. Hunt Financial Model
Transportation Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
J.B.
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About this model
This model projects the earnings power, cash flow generation, and intrinsic equity value of J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. to help an equity analyst determine a target price and investment recommendation based on the company's hybrid asset-heavy and asset-light freight network.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. is one of the largest surface transportation and logistics companies in North America. The company provides safe and reliable transportation services to a diverse group of customers throughout the continental United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Business segments include:
- Intermodal (JBI): Approximately 47% of revenue.
- Dedicated Contract Services (DCS): Approximately 28% of revenue.
- Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS): Approximately 10% of revenue.
- Truckload (JBT): Approximately 8% of revenue.
- Final Mile Services (FMS): Approximately 7% of revenue.
Key geographies:
- The vast majority of revenue is generated within the United States, with minor contributions from cross-border operations in Canada and Mexico.
Business model type:
- Hybrid model. JBI, DCS, and JBT are asset-heavy, requiring significant investments in tractors and trailing equipment. ICS is an asset-light freight brokerage platform. FMS is a mix of asset-based and asset-light final mile delivery services.
Competitive position:
- J.B. Hunt is the largest intermodal provider in North America, leveraging strong partnerships with Class I railways like BNSF and Norfolk Southern. Key competitors include Schneider National, Knight-Swift, Hub Group, and XPO Logistics.
Recent major events:
- The company achieved full-year 2025 revenue of $12.00 billion and operating income of $865.1 million.
- The company repurchased $923 million of its own stock in 2025.
- J.B. Hunt has faced recent headwinds in insurance and claims expenses, which negatively impacted operating margins in late 2023 and 2024 before stabilising in 2025.
The downloadable J.B. Hunt financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsJ.B. Hunt financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating supplies and expenses | $369.3M | $502.6M | $509.4M | $495.4M | $511.6M |
| Total operating expenses | $11.12B | $13.48B | $11.84B | $11.26B | $11.13B |
| Communication and utilities | $34.9M | $36.7M | $42.4M | $44.0M | $43.8M |
| Net income | $760.8M | $969.4M | $728.3M | $570.9M | $598.3M |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
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How to build a detailed financial model for J.B. Hunt
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
Intermodal (JBI)
- Segment name: Intermodal (JBI)
- Revenue driver formula: JBI Loads x JBI Revenue per Load
- Historical growth rate: 2% to 5% volume CAGR, highly dependent on consumer goods demand and rail network fluidity.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Conversion of over-the-road freight to intermodal, rail service reliability, and West Coast port import volumes.
- Pricing dynamics: Contractual rates with fuel surcharges. Pricing is competitive with long-haul trucking.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time as the freight is in transit.
- Seasonality: Strongest in the third and fourth quarters due to the autumn peak shipping season ahead of the holidays.
Dedicated Contract Services (DCS)
- Segment name: Dedicated Contract Services (DCS)
- Revenue driver formula: Average Trucks x Revenue per Truck per Week x 52
- Historical growth rate: 5% to 8% CAGR.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Private fleet conversions, customer retention rates (typically above 95%), and driver availability.
- Pricing dynamics: Long-term contracts (typically 3 to 5 years) with index-based pricing adjustments and fuel surcharges.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised as services are performed.
- Seasonality: Less seasonal than other segments due to the contractual nature of the business.
Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS)
- Segment name: Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS)
- Revenue driver formula: Load Volume x Revenue per Load
- Historical growth rate: Highly volatile, ranging from -15% to +20% depending on spot market conditions.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Adoption of the J.B. Hunt 360 digital freight matching platform, spot market pricing, and third-party carrier capacity.
- Pricing dynamics: Spot market pricing and short-term contracts.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised upon delivery of freight.
- Seasonality: Mirrors the broader freight market, peaking in Q3 and Q4.
Final Mile Services (FMS)
- Segment name: Final Mile Services (FMS)
- Revenue driver formula: Stops x Revenue per Stop
- Historical growth rate: 3% to 6% CAGR.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: E-commerce growth for big-and-bulky items (furniture, appliances) and housing market turnover.
- Pricing dynamics: Contractual and transactional.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised upon successful delivery and installation.
- Seasonality: Correlates with retail sales events and housing market seasonality (stronger in summer and autumn).
Truckload (JBT)
- Segment name: Truckload (JBT)
- Revenue driver formula: Loads x Revenue per Load
- Historical growth rate: 1% to 4% CAGR.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Utilisation of the 360box drop-trailer programme and overall truckload capacity in the market.
- Pricing dynamics: Spot and contract pricing, heavily influenced by the routing guide waterfall.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time as freight is in transit.
- Seasonality: Peaks in Q3 and Q4.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line-by-line breakdown: Rents and purchased transportation, Fuel and fuel taxes, Operating supplies and expenses.
- Gross margin range: The company does not report a traditional gross margin. Instead, it reports operating margin. Purchased transportation is the largest cost, representing 45% to 50% of revenue.
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Diesel fuel prices and third-party rail/truck rates.
- How COGS scales with revenue: Purchased transportation scales linearly with JBI and ICS revenue. Fuel scales linearly with miles driven but is largely offset by fuel surcharge revenue.
Operating Expenses
- R&D: Not material. Technology investments (J.B. Hunt 360) are capitalised or sit in SG&A.
- SG&A: Salaries, wages and employee benefits (24% to 26% of revenue). General and administrative expenses (1% to 2% of revenue).
- Depreciation & Amortisation: 5% to 6% of revenue, primarily tangible depreciation of tractors and trailing equipment.
- Stock-Based Compensation: Less than 1% of revenue.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Infrequent, though the company occasionally takes impairment charges on intangible assets or specific insurance-related charges.
Margin Profile
- Operating margin: 7.0% to 9.0% historically (7.2% in 2025).
- Margin trend: Stabilising after compression in 2023 and 2024 caused by freight recession and high insurance costs.
- Segment-level margins: JBI (8% to 10%), DCS (8% to 11%), ICS (often operates at a slight loss or low single-digit margin during freight downturns), FMS (4% to 6%), JBT (3% to 6%).
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: Approximately $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion.
- Key asset categories: Property and equipment (net) is the largest asset class, representing over 60% of total assets.
- Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets: Less than 5%, reflecting a strategy of organic growth rather than serial acquisition.
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 35 to 45 days.
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): Not applicable (service business).
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 30 to 40 days.
- Net working capital as % of revenue: Typically low single digits.
- Is working capital positive or negative? Generally positive, but the company manages receivables and payables tightly.
- PP&E: Consists of tractors, trailing equipment (containers, chassis, trailers), and facilities. Tractors are typically depreciated over 3 to 5 years, while trailing equipment is depreciated over 10 to 15 years.
- Right-of-use assets / operating leases: Material, representing approximately $300 million to $400 million, primarily for real estate and some equipment.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: 4.5% to 6.0% (4.8% in 2025).
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Approximately 70% maintenance (replacing ageing tractors) and 30% growth (adding intermodal containers and expanding the 360box fleet).
- Major capex programmes underway or planned: Expanding the intermodal container fleet to support long-term volume growth targets with BNSF.
- Capitalised software / development costs: Material investments in the J.B. Hunt 360 platform, though specific capitalised amounts are a small fraction of total capex.
- M&A pattern: Bolt-on acquirer. The company occasionally buys final mile providers (e.g., Zenith Freight Lines) or specialised brokerage assets.
- Typical acquisition multiple paid: Not publicly disclosed on a consistent basis due to the small size of acquisitions.
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: Approximately $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion.
- Debt/EBITDA ratio: Typically 0.8x to 1.2x, indicating a very conservative balance sheet.
- Credit rating: BBB+ (S&P) / Baa1 (Moody's).
- Key debt instruments: Senior notes and a revolving credit facility.
- Maturity profile: Well-laddered with no significant near-term refinancing cliffs.
- Interest rate profile: Primarily fixed-rate senior notes.
- Covenants: Standard interest coverage and leverage ratios, with which the company is comfortably in compliance.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. The company repurchased $923 million in shares in 2025 and has $968 million remaining under its current authorisation.
- Dividend policy: The company pays a consistent and growing dividend. The 2025 annual payout was $1.80 per share, representing a yield of approximately 0.9% and a payout ratio of roughly 29%.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: OCF / Net Income typically ranges from 1.5x to 2.0x due to heavy depreciation add-backs.
- Free cash flow margin: FCF / Revenue typically ranges from 3% to 6%.
- Major non-cash items: Depreciation and amortisation is the largest bridge between net income and OCF.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Modest use of cash during periods of high revenue growth due to AR build.
- Capex intensity: High. The business requires constant reinvestment in rolling stock.
- Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate: Cash taxes closely track the GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% to 25.0%.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Contains all hardcoded drivers, segment growth rates, margin assumptions, and macroeconomic inputs.
- Summary: A dashboard showing key outputs, target price, implied multiples, and segment revenue breakdown.
- Revenue Build: Projects loads, revenue per load, average trucks, and stops for all five segments (JBI, DCS, ICS, FMS, JBT).
- Operating Costs: Projects line items exactly as reported (Rents and purchased transportation, Salaries, Fuel, D&A, Operating supplies, Insurance and claims).
- Income Statement: Consolidated P&L down to Net Earnings and EPS.
- Balance Sheet: Assets, Liabilities, and Shareholders' Equity.
- Cash Flow: Operating, Investing, and Financing cash flows.
- Debt Schedule: Tracks revolver balance, senior notes, interest expense, and interest income.
- PP&E & Capex: Rolls forward gross PP&E, accumulated depreciation, and calculates D&A expense.
- DCF Valuation: Unlevered free cash flow calculation, WACC build, and terminal value calculation.
Key Financial Relationships
- JBI Revenue = JBI Loads x JBI Revenue per Load
- DCS Revenue = DCS Average Trucks x DCS Revenue per Truck per Week x 52
- ICS Revenue = ICS Load Volume x ICS Revenue per Load
- FMS Revenue = FMS Stops x FMS Revenue per Stop
- JBT Revenue = JBT Loads x JBT Revenue per Load
- Total Operating Revenue = JBI Revenue + DCS Revenue + ICS Revenue + FMS Revenue + JBT Revenue
- Rents and Purchased Transportation = (JBI Revenue x JBI Purchased Transport %) + (ICS Revenue x ICS Purchased Transport %)
- Fuel and Fuel Taxes = Total Operating Revenue x Fuel Expense Margin %
- Depreciation Expense = Beginning Net PP&E x Blended Depreciation Rate
- Operating Income = Total Operating Revenue - (Rents and purchased transportation + Salaries + Fuel + D&A + Operating supplies + Insurance + G&A + Communication)
- Net Earnings = (Operating Income - Net Interest Expense) x (1 - Effective Tax Rate)
- Diluted EPS = Net Earnings / Diluted Shares Outstanding
- Ending Shares Outstanding = Beginning Shares Outstanding - (Share Repurchase Amount / Average Share Price)
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- The Assumptions sheet feeds the Revenue Build and Operating Costs sheets.
- The Revenue Build sheet calculates total revenue, which feeds the top line of the Income Statement.
- The Operating Costs sheet calculates total expenses, which feeds the operating expenses lines on the Income Statement.
- The PP&E & Capex sheet calculates depreciation, which feeds both the Operating Costs sheet and the Cash Flow sheet (as a non-cash add-back).
- The Debt Schedule calculates interest expense, which feeds the Income Statement. This creates a potential circularity if excess cash sweeps into the revolver, as interest expense impacts net income, which impacts cash flow, which impacts the revolver balance.
- The Income Statement calculates Net Earnings, which feeds the top line of the Cash Flow sheet and the retained earnings roll-forward on the Balance Sheet.
- The Cash Flow sheet calculates the net change in cash, which feeds the cash line on the Balance Sheet.
Sign Convention
- Revenue and volume metrics are positive.
- Expenses on the Income Statement and Operating Costs sheets are entered as negative numbers.
- Assets on the Balance Sheet are positive.
- Liabilities and Equity on the Balance Sheet are positive.
- Cash inflows on the Cash Flow statement are positive.
- Cash outflows (including Capex and Share Repurchases) on the Cash Flow statement are negative.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Failing to model fuel surcharge revenue and fuel expense dynamically. Fuel prices inflate both revenue and costs, meaning margins compress in percentage terms even if profit dollars remain flat.
- Overestimating ICS margins. The brokerage business is highly cyclical and often operates near breakeven during loose capacity markets.
- Ignoring the impact of insurance and claims. This line item has been highly volatile and caused significant earnings misses in 2023 and 2024.
- Miscalculating DCS revenue. The driver is "Revenue per Truck per Week", so the formula must multiply by 52 weeks to get annual revenue.
- Modelling purchased transportation as a flat percentage of total revenue. It must be tied specifically to JBI and ICS, as DCS and JBT use company-owned assets and have much lower purchased transportation costs.
- Forgetting to deduct share repurchases from the share count. J.B. Hunt aggressively buys back stock, which significantly boosts EPS over the forecast period.
- Misaligning depreciation expense with capex. The company is asset-heavy, so a drop in capex should eventually lead to a drop in depreciation, but with a multi-year lag due to the long useful life of trailing equipment.
- Overstating working capital needs. The company manages receivables efficiently, so NWC should not consume massive amounts of cash even in high-growth years.
Validation Checks
- Consolidated operating margin should remain between 7.0% and 9.0%. Flag if it drops below 6.0% or exceeds 10.0%.
- Capex as a percentage of revenue should run between 4.5% and 6.0%.
- OCF / Net Income conversion must be greater than 1.2x due to the heavy depreciation add-back.
- Debt / EBITDA should remain below 1.5x based on the company's conservative financial policy.
- The Balance Sheet must balance perfectly in every period (Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity).
- Effective tax rate should be between 24.0% and 25.0% based on current enacted US legislation.
- JBI revenue should represent approximately 45% to 50% of total consolidated revenue.
- Dividend payout ratio should remain near 25% to 30% of net earnings.
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| JBI Load Volume Growth | 2.0 | % | Reflects long-term intermodal conversion trends and 2025 actuals. |
| JBI Revenue per Load Growth | 1.0 | % | Assumes stable pricing environment and flat fuel surcharges. |
| DCS Average Trucks Growth | 1.0 | % | Modest fleet expansion based on recent private fleet conversion trends. |
| DCS Rev per Truck per Week Growth | 2.0 | % | Contractual rate increases. |
| ICS Load Volume Growth | 2.0 | % | Recovery in brokerage volumes following the freight recession. |
| ICS Revenue per Load Growth | 1.0 | % | Stabilisation of spot market rates. |
| FMS Stops Growth | 2.0 | % | Steady growth in big-and-bulky e-commerce delivery. |
| FMS Revenue per Stop Growth | 1.0 | % | Modest pricing power in final mile. |
| JBT Load Volume Growth | 5.0 | % | Continued scaling of the 360box drop-trailer programme. |
| JBT Revenue per Load Growth | 1.0 | % | Stabilisation of truckload spot and contract rates. |
| Rents and purchased transport | 48.0 | % of Rev | Historical average, heavily weighted by rail costs in JBI. |
| Salaries, wages and benefits | 25.0 | % of Rev | Reflects driver pay and corporate headcount costs. |
| Fuel and fuel taxes | 8.0 | % of Rev | Assumes stable diesel prices. |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 6.0 | % of Rev | Based on historical asset base and replacement cycles. |
| Operating supplies and expenses | 3.5 | % of Rev | Maintenance and tyre costs for the fleet. |
| Insurance and claims | 2.0 | % of Rev | Reflects recent normalisation after spikes in 2023/2024. |
| Effective Tax Rate | 24.7 | % | Actual reported rate for full year 2025. |
| Capex as % of Revenue | 4.8 | % | Aligns with 2025 actual net capex of $575 million. |
| Annual Share Repurchases | 500 | $ Millions | Conservative run-rate compared to $923 million in 2025. |
| Annual Dividend per Share | 1.80 | $ | Actual 2025 dividend payout. |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Standard discount rate for a large-cap transport company. |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0 | % | Aligns with long-term US GDP growth. |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- SEC EDGAR: Source for J.B. Hunt's 10-K and 10-Q filings.
- Investor Relations: investor.jbhunt.com for earnings presentations and press releases.
- Key peers for benchmarking: Schneider National (SNDR), Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX), Hub Group (HUBG), XPO Inc. (XPO).
- Industry data sources: Cass Freight Index, DAT Freight & Analytics (for spot rates), Journal of Commerce (JOC) for intermodal volume trends.
- Consensus estimates: Bloomberg or FactSet for forward-looking EPS and revenue estimates.
Sources
Do more with the J.B. Hunt model
Frequently asked
What services does J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. provide?+
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. is a leading surface transportation and logistics company in North America. It provides services including Intermodal, Dedicated Contract Services, Integrated Capacity Solutions, Truckload, and Final Mile Services across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
How does J.B. Hunt generate its revenue across its business segments?+
J.B. Hunt generates the majority of its revenue from its Intermodal segment, accounting for approximately 47% of the total. Other significant revenue contributions come from Dedicated Contract Services, Integrated Capacity Solutions, Truckload, and Final Mile Services.
What is J.B. Hunt's capital expenditure strategy and its impact on the financial model?+
J.B. Hunt's financial model assumes capital expenditure at approximately 9.94% of revenue. This capex is split with about 70% for maintenance, primarily replacing aging tractors, and 30% for growth, such as expanding the intermodal container fleet.
What is the purpose of the J.B. Hunt financial model available for download?+
The downloadable Excel model for J.B. Hunt is designed to project the company's earnings power, cash flow generation, and intrinsic equity value. This helps equity analysts determine a target price and make informed investment recommendations.
Can I download an Excel financial model for J.B. Hunt, and what is its forecast horizon?+
Yes, an Excel financial model for J.B. Hunt is available for download. This model provides financial projections with a forecast horizon spanning from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030.
What is J.B. Hunt's business model type and competitive advantage?+
J.B. Hunt operates a hybrid business model, combining asset-heavy segments like Intermodal and Truckload with asset-light services such as Integrated Capacity Solutions. The company maintains a strong competitive position as the largest intermodal provider in North America, leveraging key partnerships with Class I railways.
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