Old Dominion Financial Model
Transportation Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers, providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organisation.
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
This model provides a comprehensive three-statement forecast and valuation for Old Dominion Freight Line to help an equity research analyst determine if the company's premium valuation multiple is justified by its industry-leading operating ratio and pricing power amidst fluctuating freight volumes.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers, providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organisation. The company focuses on premium service, boasting a 99% on-time delivery rate and a 0.1% cargo claims ratio, which allows it to command strong pricing power in a highly competitive market.
- Business segments: LTL Services Revenue (approximately 99%), Other Services Revenue (approximately 1%).
- Key geographies: Over 95% of revenue is derived from services performed within the United States.
- Business model type: Asset-heavy network model requiring significant continuous investment in service centres, tractors, and trailers to maintain capacity and service levels.
- Competitive position: Market leader in LTL profitability and service quality, consistently reporting the lowest operating ratio among publicly traded peers.
- Recent major events: The company navigated a severe freight recession in 2024 and 2025 by sacrificing volume to maintain pricing discipline, resulting in a 5.5% revenue decline in 2025 but preserving best-in-class margins.
The downloadable Old Dominion financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsOld Dominion financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.26B | $6.26B | $5.87B | $5.81B | $5.50B |
| Income before income taxes | $1.39B | $1.84B | $1.65B | $1.56B | $1.36B |
| Operating income | $1.39B | $1.84B | $1.64B | $1.54B | $1.36B |
| Net income | $1.03B | $1.38B | $1.24B | $1.19B | $1.02B |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
See 8 moreSee less
How to build a detailed financial model for Old Dominion
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
LTL Services Revenue
- Segment name: LTL services revenue
- Revenue driver formula: LTL Tons x LTL Revenue per Hundredweight (Yield) x 20
- Historical growth rate: Highly cyclical, ranging from negative 5.5% in 2025 to mid-teens growth during peak freight cycles.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Industrial production levels, retail inventory restocking, market share gains from unionised peers, and the ability to push through base rate increases.
- Pricing dynamics: Spot and contractual pricing heavily influenced by fuel surcharges; the company prioritises yield over volume, evidenced by a 4.9% increase in yield excluding fuel in Q4 2025 despite a 10.7% drop in tonnage.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time as the freight is transported from origin to destination.
- Seasonality: First and fourth quarters are typically weaker due to winter weather and fewer shipping days, while second and third quarters are the strongest.
Other Services Revenue
- Segment name: Other services revenue
- Revenue driver formula: Total Revenue x Historical % (typically around 0.9% to 1.0%)
- Historical growth rate: Tracks general LTL volume trends.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Demand for expedited services, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.
- Pricing dynamics: Highly competitive and transactional.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised upon completion of the service.
- Seasonality: Mirrors the core LTL segment.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / Direct Operating Expenses
- Line-by-line breakdown: Salaries, wages and benefits; Operating supplies and expenses (primarily fuel and maintenance); Operating taxes and licences; Insurance and claims.
- Gross margin range: ODFL does not report a traditional gross margin; instead, it focuses on the Operating Ratio (Operating Expenses as a percentage of Revenue), which typically ranges from 70% to 76%.
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Diesel fuel prices and driver wages are the most significant variable costs.
- How COGS scales with revenue: High operating leverage. When tonnage drops, the deleveraging effect on fixed network costs pushes the operating ratio higher, as seen in 2025 when the OR increased to 75.2% from 73.4% in 2024.
Operating Expenses
- R&D: Not applicable or material for this company.
- SG&A: General supplies and expenses, communications and utilities, and miscellaneous expenses. These are largely fixed in the short term.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: Represents approximately 5% to 6% of revenue, driven by heavy capital investment in the tractor/trailer fleet and real estate network.
- Stock-Based Compensation: Relatively small percentage of revenue compared to tech firms, but included within salaries, wages and benefits.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Rare, as the company manages headcount and hours dynamically rather than through large-scale layoffs.
Margin Profile
- Operating margin: 24% to 30% (the inverse of the 70% to 76% operating ratio).
- Margin trend: Compressing slightly in 2024 and 2025 due to volume deleveraging, but structurally higher than peers due to pricing discipline.
- Segment-level margins: Not disclosed separately; the company manages the network as a single integrated operation.
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: Approximately $8 billion to $9 billion, dominated by tangible assets.
- Key asset categories: Property and equipment (net) makes up the vast majority of assets, representing the fleet and service centre network.
- Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets: Negligible, as ODFL relies almost entirely on organic growth rather than acquisitions.
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): Typically 30 to 35 days.
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): Not applicable (service business), though minor parts and fuel inventories exist.
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): Typically 25 to 30 days.
- Net working capital as % of revenue: Generally low or slightly positive.
- Is working capital positive or negative?: Usually positive, but not a major consumer of cash during growth phases compared to capex.
- PP&E: Consists of land, structures, tractors, trailers, and technology equipment. Tractors are typically depreciated over 4 to 5 years, while trailers are depreciated over 10 to 15 years.
- Right-of-use assets / operating leases: Minimal compared to peers, as ODFL prefers to own its real estate and equipment.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: Typically 8% to 12% of revenue.
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Approximately 40% maintenance (replacing aging tractors) and 60% growth (adding doors to service centres and expanding the fleet).
- Major capex programmes underway or planned: 2025 capex was projected at $450 million, split between $210 million for facilities, $190 million for tractors/trailers, and $50 million for IT.
- Capitalised software / development costs: Minor component of the IT budget.
- M&A pattern: Strictly organic grower. The company rarely engages in M&A.
- Typical acquisition multiple paid: Not applicable.
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: Historically near zero. The company funds operations and capex entirely from operating cash flow.
- Debt/EBITDA ratio: Effectively 0.0x.
- Credit rating: Unrated or investment grade equivalent due to lack of debt.
- Key debt instruments: Unsecured revolving credit facility (usually undrawn) used for letters of credit and short-term liquidity.
- Maturity profile: Not applicable due to lack of term debt.
- Interest rate profile: Minimal interest expense; the company actually generates interest income from its cash balances.
- Covenants: Standard fixed charge coverage ratios on the undrawn revolver.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. The company repurchased $730.3 million of stock in 2025.
- Dividend policy: Consistent dividend grower. The Q1 2026 dividend was set at $0.29 per share, a 3.6% increase year-over-year.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: Very strong, typically 1.2x to 1.4x Net Income due to high depreciation add-backs.
- Free cash flow margin: 10% to 15% of revenue, depending on the capex cycle.
- Major non-cash items: Depreciation and amortisation is the largest bridge between net income and OCF.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Minor fluctuations based on the timing of receivables and payroll.
- Capex intensity: High. The company must continuously invest in real estate and equipment to maintain its service levels and support future growth.
- Cash tax rate vs. GAAP effective tax rate: Cash taxes closely track the GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 24.5% to 25.5%.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded inputs for macroeconomic drivers, tonnage growth, yield growth, cost inflation, and capital allocation.
- Operating Metrics: Detailed build of LTL tons per day, shipments per day, weight per shipment, and revenue per hundredweight (with and without fuel).
- Income Statement: Revenue lines (LTL Services, Other Services), detailed operating expenses (Salaries, Operating supplies, etc.), and calculation of the Operating Ratio.
- Balance Sheet: Assets (heavy PP&E focus), Liabilities, and Shareholders' Equity.
- Cash Flow Statement: OCF (starting from Net Income, adding D&A), CFI (heavy capex focus), and CFF (dividends and share repurchases).
- Debt & Interest: Schedule for the revolving credit facility, cash balances, and interest income calculation.
- PP&E & Depreciation: Waterfall schedule for tractors, trailers, and real estate, driving the D&A line on the income statement.
- Working Capital: Schedules for accounts receivable, accounts payable, and accrued expenses based on days outstanding.
- Valuation (DCF): Unlevered free cash flow build, WACC calculation, and terminal value based on EV/EBITDA exit multiple.
- Outputs & Charts: Summary dashboard highlighting Operating Ratio trends, yield vs volume growth, and EPS.
Key Financial Relationships
- `LTL Tons = LTL Shipments x LTL Weight per Shipment / 2000`
- `LTL Services Revenue = LTL Tons x LTL Revenue per Hundredweight x 20`
- `Total Revenue = LTL Services Revenue + Other Services Revenue`
- `Operating Ratio = Total Operating Expenses / Total Revenue`
- `Operating Income = Total Revenue - Total Operating Expenses`
- `Salaries, Wages and Benefits = Total Revenue x Historical % (adjusted for volume deleveraging)`
- `Operating Supplies and Expenses = Base Operating Supplies + (Fuel Surcharge Revenue x Fuel Cost Correlation)`
- `Depreciation Expense = Beginning PP&E x Blended Depreciation Rate`
- `Interest Income = Average Cash Balance x Yield on Cash`
- `Net Income = (Operating Income + Interest Income - Interest Expense) x (1 - Effective Tax Rate)`
- `Free Cash Flow = Cash from Operations - Capital Expenditures`
- `Ending Shares Outstanding = Beginning Shares - (Share Repurchase Amount / Average Share Price)`
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- The Operating Metrics sheet is the engine of the model. It feeds LTL Services Revenue on the Income Statement.
- The Income Statement generates Net Income, which flows to the top of the Cash Flow Statement and feeds Retained Equity on the Balance Sheet.
- The PP&E & Depreciation sheet calculates depreciation, which flows to the Income Statement (operating expenses) and the Cash Flow Statement (non-cash add-back).
- The Cash Flow Statement calculates the net change in cash, which feeds the cash line on the Balance Sheet.
- The Debt & Interest sheet uses the cash balance from the Balance Sheet to calculate interest income, which flows back to the Income Statement (creating a minor circularity that requires an iterative calculation toggle).
Sign Convention
- Revenues: Positive
- Expenses: Positive on the Income Statement (subtracted in subtotals to calculate Operating Income).
- Assets: Positive
- Liabilities & Equity: Positive
- Cash Flow Statement: Cash inflows are positive, cash outflows (including capex, dividends, and share repurchases) are negative.
- Operating Ratio: Expressed as a positive percentage (e.g., 75.2%).
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Misunderstanding the Operating Ratio: The LTL industry uses Operating Ratio (Expenses / Revenue) rather than Operating Margin. The model must calculate and display this prominently, as it is the primary valuation driver.
- Hundredweight Conversion: LTL Revenue per Hundredweight is priced per 100 pounds. Tonnage is in short tons (2,000 pounds). The formula must multiply Tons by 20 to reconcile with Hundredweight pricing.
- Fuel Surcharge Distortion: Fuel surcharges inflate revenue and operating supplies expense simultaneously. Yield metrics must be viewed "excluding fuel surcharges" to understand core pricing power.
- Volume Deleveraging: If tonnage drops, salaries and depreciation do not drop proportionally. The model must reflect margin compression when volumes decline.
- Capex vs D&A Disconnect: ODFL's capex consistently exceeds depreciation because it is a growth company expanding its network. Do not model capex equal to D&A.
- Interest Income vs Expense: ODFL has no material debt. Models that assume a standard debt schedule will fail. The company generates interest income from its cash pile.
- Share Count Reduction: The company aggressively buys back stock. EPS growth will outpace Net Income growth, so the share repurchase schedule must dynamically reduce the share count.
- Working Capital Impact: Unlike retailers, ODFL's working capital is not a massive driver of cash flow. Overcomplicating the working capital schedule will lead to unnecessary errors.
Validation Checks
- "Operating Ratio must remain between 70.0% and 78.0%; flag if outside this historical band."
- "Total Assets must equal Total Liabilities plus Shareholders' Equity in all forecast periods."
- "Capex as a percentage of revenue should be between 8.0% and 12.0%."
- "LTL Services Revenue must constitute at least 98% of Total Revenue."
- "Effective tax rate should remain between 24.0% and 26.0%."
- "Interest expense should be negligible (less than $5 million annually)."
- "Free Cash Flow must be positive in all forecast years due to strong cash conversion."
- "Dividend payout ratio should remain below 20% of Net Income, reflecting the company's preference for share buybacks."
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| LTL Tons per Day Growth | 2.0 | % | Rebound from 2025 freight recession (-8.7% YTD Q3 2025) |
| LTL Yield (ex-fuel) Growth | 4.5 | % | Consistent with Q4 2025 pricing discipline (4.9% growth) |
| Other Services Revenue % | 0.9 | % | Based on 2025 actuals ($50.2M on $5.5B total revenue) |
| Salaries, Wages & Benefits | 48.0 | % of Rev | Largest expense item, assumes slight leverage improvement |
| Operating Supplies & Expenses | 10.5 | % of Rev | Assumes stable diesel prices |
| Depreciation & Amortisation | 5.5 | % of Rev | Reflects ongoing heavy capital investment |
| Effective Tax Rate | 24.8 | % | Based on Q4 2025 actual tax rate |
| Capex as % of Revenue | 8.2 | % | Based on 2025 guidance of $450M on $5.5B revenue |
| Share Repurchases | 700.0 | $ Millions | Consistent with 2025 actuals of $730.3M |
| Quarterly Dividend per Share | 0.29 | $ | Based on Q1 2026 declared dividend |
| Interest Yield on Cash | 4.0 | % | Assumes standard money market rates on cash balances |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Standard discount rate for a low-beta, zero-debt transport company |
| Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple | 18.0 | x | Reflects ODFL's historical premium valuation relative to peers |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- Filings: SEC EDGAR (Form 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K), ODFL Investor Relations website.
- Key peers for benchmarking: Saia Inc. (SAIA), XPO Inc. (XPO), ArcBest Corp (ARCB), TFI International (TFII).
- Industry data sources: American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index, Cass Freight Index, DAT Freight & Analytics.
- Consensus estimates source: FactSet, Bloomberg, or Yahoo Finance for forward EPS and revenue estimates.
- Proprietary data: Macrobond for industrial production indices, which highly correlate with LTL freight volumes.
Sources
- Old Dominion Freight Line Investor Relations (Financial Results, Q4 2025 Earnings Release)
- SEC EDGAR Database (ODFL 10-K and 10-Q filings)
- Seeking Alpha (ODFL Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, November 2025 Operating Metrics)
- Quartr (ODFL Q2 2025 Earnings Summary)
- TradingView (ODFL Q4 2025 Financial Results)
- NMFTA (2025 Q1 LTL Industry Performance)
- DCF Modeling (ODFL Financial Health Insights)
Do more with the Old Dominion model
Frequently asked
What services does Old Dominion Freight Line provide?+
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is a leading North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier, offering regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. The company is known for its premium service, boasting a 99% on-time delivery rate and a 0.1% cargo claims ratio.
How does Old Dominion Freight Line generate its revenue?+
Old Dominion Freight Line primarily generates revenue from LTL Services, which account for approximately 99% of its total revenue. The company leverages its premium service quality to maintain strong pricing power, even amidst fluctuating freight volumes.
What are the typical capital expenditure requirements for Old Dominion Freight Line?+
Old Dominion Freight Line typically invests 8% to 12% of its revenue in capital expenditures. This investment is split, with approximately 40% dedicated to maintenance capex for replacing aging tractors and 60% for growth capex to expand its service centre network and fleet.
What is the projected revenue growth rate for Old Dominion Freight Line in the financial model?+
The financial model forecasts Old Dominion Freight Line's revenue growth at approximately 9.3%. This projection considers the company's ability to maintain pricing discipline despite navigating recent freight market downturns.
What justifies Old Dominion Freight Line's premium valuation multiple?+
Old Dominion Freight Line's premium valuation is justified by its industry-leading operating ratio and strong pricing power. The company consistently demonstrates superior service quality and profitability compared to its publicly traded peers.
Is a financial model available for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)?+
Yes, a comprehensive three-statement forecast and valuation model is available for Old Dominion Freight Line. This model helps equity research analysts assess if the company's premium valuation is supported by its financial performance and strategic position.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
Created by ex-finance professionals
Hey, I’m Alex and I created Finamodel.
Over my years in the finance industry I kept building the same models over and over again. Same structure, same assumptions, different logo. So I started building frameworks to turn them into clean, reusable templates.
Every model here is one I’d actually use for a client, and I personally vet each one before it goes up.
I’m not an expert in every industry, but I’ve built enough models to know what belongs in one. And when something is completely foreign to me, I reach out to my network for experts to work on our models with us.
Having a template library on hand cuts a first build from hours to minutes.
Need help finding your model? You’ll find me in the Finamodel app!
Other Transportation Company Financial Models
Browse another company in the same sector.
C.H. Robinson
C.H.
CSX
CSX Corporation is a premier Class I freight railroad operating a 20,000 route-mile network across the eastern United States and parts of Canada.
Delta Air Lines
Delta Air Lines is one of the world's largest global network airlines, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo.
Expeditors International
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
FedEx
FedEx Corporation provides a broad portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services globally.
J.B. Hunt
J.B.
Southwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) is a major US passenger airline operating a low-cost carrier (LCC) business model primarily focused on domestic point-to-point transit.
Norfolk Southern
Norfolk Southern Corporation is a premier Class I freight railroad operating an extensive network of approximately 19,200 route miles across 22 states and the District of Columbia in the eastern United States.
Explore more Manufacturing financial model templates.
