C.H. Robinson Financial Model
Transportation Company Financials Example (Free Excel Download)
C.H.
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About this model
This model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and operational forecasting tool to determine if C.H. Robinson's "Lean AI" productivity initiatives and cost-cutting measures can drive sustained operating leverage and margin expansion through the highly cyclical freight market.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is one of the world's largest third-party logistics (3PL) providers, offering freight transportation, supply chain management, and brokerage services. The company acts as an intermediary between shippers who need to move goods and carriers who have the capacity to move them.
Business segments include:
- North American Surface Transportation (NAST): Approximately 75% of gross revenues.
- Global Forwarding: Approximately 18% of gross revenues.
- All Other and Corporate (including Robinson Fresh and Managed Solutions): Approximately 7% of gross revenues.
The business model is highly asset-light. C.H. Robinson does not own the trucks, ships, or planes used to transport freight; instead, it leverages a massive network of over 450,000 contract carriers. The company's competitive position is rooted in its scale, proprietary technology platform (Navisphere), and vast data advantage in pricing freight. Recent major events include a prolonged freight recession throughout 2023 and 2024, the implementation of a "Lean AI" operating strategy by the new CEO to drastically improve shipments per employee, and the divestiture of its Europe Surface Transportation business in February 2025.
The downloadable C.H. Robinson financial model includes SEC-sourced historical financials, forecast assumptions, core operating schedules, and valuation outputs in an Excel workbook built for review and scenario analysis.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
Historicals & AssumptionsC.H. Robinson financial modelCompany, Historicals & Assumptions used
Source: SEC EDGAR · values in USD
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.10B | $24.70B | $17.60B | $17.72B | $16.23B |
| Income before provision for income taxes | $1.02B | $1.17B | $409.2M | $579.2M | $722.5M |
| Operating income | $1.08B | $1.27B | $514.6M | $669.1M | $795.0M |
| Net income | $844.2M | $940.5M | $325.1M | $465.7M | $587.1M |
Forecast assumptions
Defaults used in the downloadable model. Forecast horizon: FY2026–FY2030.
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How to build a detailed financial model for C.H. Robinson
A complete walkthrough of every driver, margin, working-capital input, and capital-allocation assumption used in the downloadable model.
Revenue Deep Dive
For C.H. Robinson, analysts focus on two revenue metrics: Gross Revenues (what the shipper pays) and Adjusted Gross Profit or "Net Revenue" (Gross Revenues minus the cost of purchased transportation).
North American Surface Transportation (NAST)
- Segment name: North American Surface Transportation
- Revenue driver formula: (Truckload Volume x Price per Truckload) + (LTL Volume x Price per LTL Shipment)
- Historical growth rate: Highly cyclical, ranging from -15% in freight recessions to +20% in tight capacity markets.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Driven by US macroeconomic conditions, inventory restocking cycles, and carrier capacity. Headwinds include prolonged freight recessions and excess carrier capacity.
- Pricing dynamics: Spot market pricing (highly volatile) versus contractual pricing (typically 12-month routing guides).
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over time as the shipment is in transit.
- Seasonality: Q3 and Q4 are typically stronger due to the retail holiday peak season and agricultural harvests.
Global Forwarding
- Segment name: Global Forwarding
- Revenue driver formula: (Ocean TEUs x Revenue per TEU) + (Air Metric Tons x Revenue per Tonne)
- Historical growth rate: -20% to +30%, heavily distorted by pandemic-era supply chain shocks and subsequent normalisation.
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Global trade volumes, geopolitical disruptions (e.g., Red Sea diversions), and port congestion.
- Pricing dynamics: Highly dependent on global shipping lane capacity and international freight rates.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised over the transit period of the freight.
- Seasonality: Peaks in late summer and early autumn ahead of the holiday shopping season.
All Other and Corporate
- Segment name: All Other and Corporate (includes Robinson Fresh)
- Revenue driver formula: Sourcing volume x Commodity pricing + Managed Services fees
- Historical growth rate: Low single digits (stable).
- Key growth levers and headwinds: Fresh produce demand and supply chain consulting needs.
- Pricing dynamics: Transactional and fee-based.
- Revenue recognition notes: Recognised upon delivery for fresh produce.
- Seasonality: Tied to agricultural growing seasons.
Cost Structure
Variable Costs / COGS
- Line-by-line breakdown: Purchased transportation and related services (the amount paid to contract carriers, railroads, ocean liners, and airlines).
- Gross margin range: Adjusted Gross Profit margin (AGP / Gross Revenue) typically ranges from 14% to 16%.
- Key input costs and commodity exposures: Fuel prices (diesel) heavily impact gross revenues via fuel surcharges, but the impact on Adjusted Gross Profit is largely neutral as surcharges are passed through to carriers.
- How COGS scales with revenue: Highly linear. Purchased transportation moves in lockstep with gross revenues, which is why analysts focus on Adjusted Gross Profit.
Operating Expenses
- Personnel expenses: The largest operating expense. Historically highly variable due to incentive-based compensation tied to gross profit generation. Recently, the company has reduced headcount significantly (down 12.9% YoY in Q4 2025) through its Lean AI strategy.
- Other selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A): Includes IT infrastructure, software licences, facility costs, and marketing.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: Very low, typically 0.5% to 1.0% of gross revenues, primarily related to capitalised internally developed software.
- Restructuring / one-time charges: Frequent in 2024 and 2025 due to workforce reductions and facility rationalisations (e.g., $45.7 million in 2024).
Margin Profile
- Adjusted Gross Profit Margin: 14% to 16% of Gross Revenues.
- Operating Margin: For 3PLs, this is calculated as Income from Operations divided by Adjusted Gross Profit. Historically 25% to 30%. In 2025, adjusted operating margin expanded to 29.1% due to aggressive cost-cutting.
- Margin trend: Expanding. The company is successfully decoupling headcount growth from volume growth using AI and automation.
Balance Sheet Structure
- Total assets: Approximately $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion.
- Key asset categories: Accounts receivable (massive, representing the gross billings to shippers) and cash.
- Goodwill & intangibles as % of total assets: Approximately 25% to 30%, stemming from historical acquisitions.
- Working capital profile:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 50 to 55 days.
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO): Negligible (only applies to the small Robinson Fresh segment).
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO): 35 to 40 days.
- Net working capital as % of revenue: Positive, typically 5% to 8% of gross revenues.
- Working capital dynamics: The company must pay carriers faster than it collects from shippers. Therefore, working capital consumes cash during periods of rapid revenue growth and releases cash during freight recessions.
- PP&E: Extremely light. Mostly IT equipment, leasehold improvements, and office furniture.
- Right-of-use assets / operating leases: Material, representing leased office spaces globally.
Capital Expenditure & Investment
- Capex as % of revenue: Less than 0.5% of gross revenues.
- Maintenance capex vs. growth capex: Almost entirely growth capex focused on technology.
- Major capex programmes underway or planned: Investments in Navisphere, generative AI, and automated pricing algorithms.
- Capitalised software / development costs: Highly material. The company capitalises a significant portion of its IT developer labour, which is then amortised over 3 to 5 years.
- M&A pattern: Historically a bolt-on acquirer (e.g., Prime Distribution, Freightquote), but currently focused on organic execution and divestitures (sold Europe Surface Transportation in 2025).
Debt & Capital Structure
- Total debt: Approximately $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion.
- Debt/EBITDA ratio: Typically managed between 1.5x and 2.0x.
- Credit rating: Investment grade (BBB+ / Baa2).
- Key debt instruments: Senior unsecured notes and a revolving credit facility.
- Interest rate profile: Predominantly fixed-rate bonds with staggered maturities.
- Share repurchase programme: Highly active. The company routinely uses excess free cash flow to buy back stock, reducing share count steadily over the last decade.
- Dividend policy: Consistent dividend payer with a payout ratio typically between 40% and 50% of net income.
Cash Flow Characteristics
- Operating cash flow conversion: OCF / Net Income is highly volatile due to working capital. It can exceed 1.5x during freight recessions (as receivables shrink) and drop below 0.8x during inflationary freight booms.
- Free cash flow margin: 1.5% to 2.5% of Gross Revenues, but a much higher percentage of Adjusted Gross Profit.
- Major non-cash items: Depreciation, amortisation of internally developed software, and stock-based compensation.
- Working capital cash flow impact: Counter-cyclical. This is the most critical cash flow dynamic for C.H. Robinson.
- Capex intensity: Extremely low, resulting in free cash flow that closely mirrors operating cash flow.
- Cash tax rate: Closely tracks the GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 19% to 21%.
Sheet Structure
- Assumptions: Hardcoded drivers for macroeconomic indicators, segment volumes, pricing, and margin targets.
- Scenarios: Freight cycle toggles (Peak, Trough, Mid-cycle) driving the NAST and Global Forwarding volume and pricing assumptions.
- Revenue Build: Detailed calculation of Gross Revenues and Purchased Transportation to arrive at Adjusted Gross Profit for NAST, Global Forwarding, and All Other.
- Income Statement: Consolidated view mirroring the 10-K, explicitly showing Gross Revenues, Purchased Transportation, Adjusted Gross Profit, Personnel Expenses, and SG&A.
- Working Capital: Schedules for Accounts Receivable, Accounts Payable, and Accrued Expenses driven by Gross Revenues and Purchased Transportation.
- Depreciation & Amortisation: Waterfall schedule for capitalised software and standard PP&E.
- Debt Schedule: Tranche-by-tranche debt build, interest expense calculation, and revolver sweep.
- Balance Sheet: Standard asset, liability, and equity line items balancing perfectly.
- Cash Flow Statement: Indirect method starting from Net Income, with a specific breakout for the change in working capital.
- Valuation: DCF using Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), WACC calculation, and terminal multiple approach.
- Outputs & Charts: Summary dashboards showing Adjusted Gross Profit margins, Operating Margins, and shipments per employee.
Key Financial Relationships
- `NAST Gross Revenue = NAST Truckload Revenue + NAST LTL Revenue + NAST Other Revenue`
- `Global Forwarding Gross Revenue = Ocean Freight Revenue + Air Freight Revenue + Customs Revenue`
- `Consolidated Gross Revenue = NAST Gross Revenue + Global Forwarding Gross Revenue + All Other Gross Revenue`
- `NAST Adjusted Gross Profit = NAST Gross Revenue - NAST Purchased Transportation`
- `Global Forwarding Adjusted Gross Profit = Global Forwarding Gross Revenue - Global Forwarding Purchased Transportation`
- `Consolidated Adjusted Gross Profit = Consolidated Gross Revenue - Consolidated Purchased Transportation`
- `Adjusted Gross Profit Margin = Consolidated Adjusted Gross Profit / Consolidated Gross Revenue`
- `Personnel Expense = Consolidated Adjusted Gross Profit x Personnel Expense Margin (historically 55-60%, trending lower)`
- `Income from Operations = Consolidated Adjusted Gross Profit - Personnel Expense - Other SG&A - D&A`
- `Operating Margin = Income from Operations / Consolidated Adjusted Gross Profit`
- `Accounts Receivable = (Consolidated Gross Revenue / 365) x DSO`
- `Accounts Payable = (Consolidated Purchased Transportation / 365) x DPO`
- `Change in Net Working Capital = (Current Year AR - Prior Year AR) - (Current Year AP - Prior Year AP)`
- `Free Cash Flow = Cash from Operations - Capital Expenditures - Capitalised Software Costs`
- `Shipments per Employee = Total Annual Shipments / Average Headcount`
Cross-Sheet Dependencies
- The Revenue Build sheet is the engine of the model. It feeds Gross Revenues to the Income Statement and Working Capital sheets.
- The Revenue Build also calculates Purchased Transportation, which feeds the Income Statement (as COGS) and the Working Capital sheet (to calculate Accounts Payable).
- The Working Capital sheet calculates the change in NWC, which is a massive driver for the Cash Flow Statement.
- The Cash Flow Statement determines the ending cash balance or revolver draw, which feeds the Debt Schedule.
- The Debt Schedule calculates interest expense, which flows back to the Income Statement (creating a standard circular reference that must be managed with a toggle).
Sign Convention
- Revenues, Adjusted Gross Profit, and Asset balances are entered and displayed as positive numbers.
- Expenses (Purchased Transportation, Personnel, SG&A) are entered as positive numbers and subtracted in formulas.
- In the Cash Flow Statement, cash inflows are positive, and cash outflows (including Capex and dividends) are negative.
- Contra-assets (like Accumulated Depreciation) are displayed as positive numbers but subtracted from gross assets.
Things Most Likely to Go Wrong
- Gross vs Net Revenue Confusion: The builder might calculate operating margins based on Gross Revenue instead of Adjusted Gross Profit. For CHRW, operating margin is always assessed as a percentage of Adjusted Gross Profit.
- Working Capital Drivers: Tying Accounts Payable to Gross Revenue instead of Purchased Transportation. AP must be driven by the cost of capacity, not the billed revenue.
- Counter-Cyclical Cash Flow: Failing to capture the massive cash release from working capital when revenues decline. If the model shows negative free cash flow during a revenue contraction, the working capital logic is broken.
- Capitalised Software: Ignoring the cash outflow for capitalised software. It must be deducted alongside standard capex to calculate true free cash flow.
- Europe Divestiture: Failing to adjust historical run-rates for the February 2025 sale of the Europe Surface Transportation business. 2025 and 2026 projections must exclude this revenue.
- Personnel Expense Leverage: Modelling personnel expense as a fixed percentage of Gross Revenue. It should be modelled as a percentage of Adjusted Gross Profit, and must reflect the recent Lean AI headcount reductions.
- Fuel Surcharges: Assuming rising fuel prices expand profit dollars. Fuel surcharges inflate Gross Revenue but are passed directly to carriers, meaning they dilute the Adjusted Gross Profit margin percentage while keeping absolute profit dollars flat.
- Share Count: Keeping share count flat. CHRW aggressively repurchases shares; the model must reduce the diluted share count annually based on the allocated buyback cash.
Validation Checks
- "Adjusted Gross Profit margin should be in the 14% to 16% range; flag if outside this band."
- "Operating Margin (Income from Operations / Adjusted Gross Profit) should be between 25% and 32%; flag if outside this band."
- "Accounts Receivable DSO must be calculated using Gross Revenue, not Adjusted Gross Profit."
- "During periods of negative Gross Revenue growth, Change in Net Working Capital must be a positive cash inflow."
- "Capex plus Capitalised Software should not exceed 1.0% of Gross Revenue."
- "Effective tax rate should be 19% to 21% based on recent historical averages."
- "Balance sheet must balance: Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Equity in every period."
- "Dividend payout ratio should remain between 40% and 50% of Net Income."
Key Assumptions (Default Values)
| Assumption | Default Value | Unit | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAST Gross Revenue Growth | 2.0 | % | Modest recovery following the prolonged 2023-2024 freight recession. |
| Global Forwarding Gross Revenue Growth | -5.0 | % | Normalisation of ocean freight rates following 2024 volatility. |
| NAST Adjusted Gross Profit Margin | 14.6 | % | Based on Q4 2025 actual reported margin. |
| Global Forwarding Adjusted Gross Profit Margin | 18.5 | % | Reflects improved revenue management and margin expansion. |
| Personnel Expense as % of AGP | 52.0 | % | Significant reduction from historical 60%+ due to Lean AI headcount reductions. |
| SG&A as % of AGP | 19.0 | % | Stable run-rate excluding one-time divestiture losses. |
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 52 | Days | Historical average; driven by standard shipper payment terms. |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | 38 | Days | Historical average; reflects prompt payment requirements to contract carriers. |
| Capex & Cap. Software as % of Gross Rev | 0.6 | % | Asset-light model requires minimal physical capex; mostly tech investment. |
| Effective Tax Rate | 19.6 | % | Based on full-year 2024 and 2025 actuals. |
| Share Repurchase Allocation | 50.0 | % | Percentage of Free Cash Flow dedicated to buybacks. |
| Annual Dividend per Share | 2.44 | $ | Based on recent quarterly dividend run-rate. |
| Cost of Debt | 4.5 | % | Weighted average interest rate on existing senior notes. |
| WACC | 8.5 | % | Standard discount rate for asset-light logistics peers. |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0 | % | Long-term GDP growth proxy. |
Data Sources & Benchmarks
- Filings: SEC EDGAR (Form 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K) and the C.H. Robinson Investor Relations website.
- Key Peers: Expeditors International (EXPD), RXO Inc. (RXO), J.B. Hunt (JBHT - brokerage division), and Echo Global Logistics (private).
- Industry Data: Cass Freight Index (for shipment volumes and expenditures), DAT Freight & Analytics (for spot and contract truckload rates), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for ocean rates.
- Consensus Estimates: FactSet or Bloomberg for forward-looking EPS and Adjusted Gross Profit estimates.
Sources
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Frequently asked
What is C.H. Robinson's primary business model?+
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is one of the world's largest third-party logistics (3PL) providers, offering freight transportation, supply chain management, and brokerage services. The company operates an asset-light model, leveraging a massive network of over 450,000 contract carriers rather than owning its own transportation assets.
How does C.H. Robinson generate revenue, and what are its main segments?+
C.H. Robinson generates revenue primarily through its North American Surface Transportation (NAST) and Global Forwarding segments. NAST revenue is driven by truckload and LTL volumes and prices, while Global Forwarding revenue is influenced by ocean TEUs and air freight tonnage. The company also has an 'All Other and Corporate' segment, including Robinson Fresh.
What is the assumed revenue growth rate for C.H. Robinson in the financial model?+
The financial model for C.H. Robinson assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 3.54% across the forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030. This assumption helps project the company's top-line performance through varying market conditions.
What is C.H. Robinson's capital expenditure strategy, and how is it reflected in the financial model?+
C.H. Robinson maintains an extremely asset-light business model, with capital expenditures primarily focused on technology investments like Navisphere, generative AI, and automated pricing algorithms. The financial model reflects this with a low Capex as a percentage of revenue, set at approximately 0.19%.
How does C.H. Robinson's working capital profile impact its cash flow?+
C.H. Robinson's working capital profile is positive, typically representing 5% to 8% of gross revenues, because the company must pay carriers faster than it collects from shippers. Consequently, working capital consumes cash during periods of rapid revenue growth and releases cash during freight recessions.
What is the purpose of the downloadable C.H. Robinson financial model?+
The downloadable Excel model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and operational forecasting tool for C.H. Robinson. Its purpose is to determine if the company's 'Lean AI' productivity initiatives and cost-cutting measures can drive sustained operating leverage and margin expansion through the highly cyclical freight market.
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