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Lululemon Athletica (LULU) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Lululemon Athletica. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Lululemon Athletica’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$23.94B
from $9.62B
FCF FY30
$2.10B
Margin 8.8%
Enterprise value
$27.21B
2.8× LTM revenue
Equity value
$28.47B
Net debt -$1.26B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
20.0%
-10.0%baseline 20.0%40.0%
Gross margin
56.6%
5.0%baseline 56.6%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
6.7%
0.0%baseline 6.7%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Lululemon Athletica forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Lululemon Athletica's core business model and product offering?+

Lululemon Athletica designs and retails premium athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories primarily for yoga, running, and training. The company operates through company-owned stores and a significant direct-to-consumer e-commerce segment, maintaining tight control over its distribution.

What are the primary revenue drivers for Lululemon Athletica?+

Lululemon's revenue is primarily driven by sales from its Company-Operated Stores and its growing Direct to Consumer (DTC) e-commerce segment. The company is focused on its "Power of Three x2" growth strategy, emphasizing expansion in international markets like China and further developing its digital channels.

What are Lululemon Athletica's capital expenditure priorities?+

Lululemon's capital expenditures, which range from 6% to 8% of revenue, are primarily allocated to growth initiatives. These include new store openings, particularly in China and the APAC region, along with store renovations and investments in supply chain and technology infrastructure to support its e-commerce platform.

How does Lululemon Athletica manage its working capital, particularly inventory?+

Lululemon maintains a positive net working capital profile, with inventory being a major use of cash, typically held for 110-130 days. The company must carefully manage its inventory investments, especially in anticipation of the peak Q4 selling season.

What is the purpose of the Lululemon Athletica financial model?+

The Lululemon Athletica financial model serves as a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool. Its primary purpose is to assess the company's ability to sustain its premium valuation multiple while executing its "Power of Three x2" growth strategy.

Is a financial model available for Lululemon Athletica, and what is its forecast horizon?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Lululemon Athletica. This general corporate model provides a forecast horizon spanning from fiscal year 2026 through fiscal year 2030.

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