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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$12.13B
from $8.55B
FCF FY30
-$7.15B
Margin -59.0%
Enterprise value
-$86.63B
-10.1× LTM revenue
Equity value
-$99.54B
Net debt $12.91B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
7.2%
-10.0%baseline 7.2%40.0%
Gross margin
5.0%
5.0%baseline 5.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
40.0%
0.0%baseline 40.0%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) do?+

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is a global cruise operator offering diverse itineraries through its three brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. It holds the position of the third-largest global cruise operator by capacity, competing with Carnival Corporation and Royal Caribbean Group.

How does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings generate revenue?+

NCLH generates revenue primarily from cruise ticket sales and onboard spending by passengers across its three distinct brands. The company benefits from structurally negative working capital due to advance ticket sales, which provides a cash flow advantage by funding growth from customer deposits.

What is the assumed revenue growth rate for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings in the financial model?+

The financial model for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings incorporates a Revenue_Growth assumption of approximately 7.25%. This growth rate is a key driver for forecasting the company's future financial performance and evaluating its equity valuation.

What is the primary purpose of the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings financial model?+

The model's primary purpose is to evaluate Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' equity valuation and credit profile. It aims to determine if the company can successfully deleverage its significant debt burden while funding its extensive newbuild ship pipeline.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. This general corporate model provides a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, offering insights into the company's future financials.

How does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings manage its working capital?+

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates with structurally negative working capital, largely due to massive Advance Ticket Sales balances. This unique profile provides a significant cash flow advantage, as the company effectively funds its growth through customer deposits collected before voyages.

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