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Starbucks (SBUX) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Starbucks. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Starbucks’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$52.70B
from $35.98B
FCF FY30
$15.26B
Margin 29.0%
Enterprise value
$211.28B
5.9× LTM revenue
Equity value
$198.53B
Net debt $12.75B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
7.9%
-10.0%baseline 7.9%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
6.1%
0.0%baseline 6.1%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Starbucks forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Starbucks' primary business model and how does it operate?+

Starbucks Corporation is the premier global roaster, marketer, and retailer of specialty coffee, operating over 41,000 stores worldwide. The company utilizes a hybrid business model, blending asset-heavy company-operated stores that provide high control and revenue with asset-light licensed stores that yield high-margin royalty income.

How does Starbucks generate its revenue across different business segments?+

Starbucks generates the majority of its revenue, approximately 74%, from its North America segment. The International segment contributes about 21% of revenue, with the remaining 5% coming from Channel Development.

What is the assumed revenue growth rate in the Starbucks financial model?+

The financial model for Starbucks assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 7.93%. This assumption is a key input for projecting the company's future cash flows and earnings over the forecast horizon.

What is the purpose of the Starbucks financial model and its forecast period?+

The Starbucks financial model projects the company's future cash flows and earnings to determine its intrinsic equity value. This analysis helps equity research analysts decide if the 'Back to Starbucks' turnaround strategy justifies a Buy rating, with a forecast horizon extending from FY2026 to FY2030.

How does Starbucks manage its working capital and what is its profile?+

Starbucks operates with structural negative working capital, meaning its current liabilities exceed its current assets. The company effectively funds growth through its Stored Value Card liability, which represents customer deposits on the Starbucks app and acts as an interest-free loan.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Starbucks (SBUX) to analyze its financials?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Starbucks (SBUX). This general corporate model is designed to project the company's future cash flows and earnings to determine its intrinsic equity value.

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