Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Financial Forecast Calculator
Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Ulta Beauty. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Ulta Beauty’s most recent SEC filings.
Assumptions
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Keep iterating on the Ulta Beauty forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.
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Frequently asked
What does Ulta Beauty do and what is its business model?+
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S., offering a wide range of beauty products and salon services. The company operates an asset-light retail model with leased stores and a strong omnichannel presence, supported by its Ultamate Rewards loyalty program.
What are the main revenue drivers for Ulta Beauty's product categories?+
Ulta Beauty's revenue is driven by sales across categories like cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrance, with each category influenced by factors such as innovation, consumer trends, and promotional intensity. Cosmetics peak significantly in Q4 due to holiday gifting, while skincare is steadier.
What are the key assumptions for Ulta Beauty's capital expenditure in a financial model?+
Capital expenditure for Ulta Beauty is typically modeled at 3.0% to 4.0% of revenue, with approximately 60% allocated to growth initiatives like new stores, relocations, and remodels. The company targets 60 to 70 net new stores annually and invests in supply chain optimization and digital platforms.
What are important balance sheet considerations for valuing Ulta Beauty?+
Key balance sheet considerations include merchandise inventories, operating lease right-of-use assets, and property and equipment, which are material due to the leased store fleet. Net working capital is typically positive but low, with significant inventory held to support expansion and new brand launches.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)?+
Yes, an Excel financial model for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is available for download, providing a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario planning tool. This model allows assessment of the company's long-term growth trajectory, store fleet expansion, and margin resilience.
What are the primary growth levers and headwinds for Ulta Beauty's cosmetics segment?+
Growth in Ulta Beauty's cosmetics segment is primarily driven by innovation in prestige makeup and exclusive brand launches. However, it faces headwinds from consumers potentially trading down to mass market brands.
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