Equals Financial Model

Two founding pillars:

1. Data connections - native SQL editor, connections to databases (BigQuery, MySQL, Postgres, Redshift, Snowflake) and SaaS sources (Stripe, Salesforce, QuickBooks, Plaid), query builder, scheduled/versioned queries, import scripts.
2. Team workflows - collaborative viewing and editing, "Git model" for changes (versioning), shared queries and formulas, Trace (get to source of a number), scheduled updates.

Cloud-based, sign-up-and-go, targeted subset of Excel functionality. Positioned as the only spreadsheet with built-in connections to any database, versioning, and collaboration.

Mission: "Replace Excel for analysis". Earlier seed deck stated "Empower businesses to make good decisions".

Not explicitly stated in deck. Implied SaaS subscription (ARR metric used throughout; MRR referenced in data deck churn table). Sales motion: inside sales with a demo-driven funnel (Website → Lead → Demo → Customer funnel tracked). Head of Sales hired.

All chart values in the data deck (series-a slides 16–22) are intentionally blurred/redacted - axes and series labels are visible but no specific numbers can be read from the images.

Qualitative traction statements:

• Public launch: June 2022.
• First sneak peek of product: April 2022.
• Data deck dated September 2022 - roughly 3–5 months post-launch.
• Slide 17 headline: "We've grown to ARR since our first sneak peek of the product in April."
• Slide 22 headline: "Gross New ARR is accelerating, retention is strong." Churn table structure shows Customer Churn and Gross MRR Churn tracked weekly from ~04/11/2022 through 08/29/2022.
• Paid customers active ~3 days/week (DAU/WAU and DAU/MAU tracked).
• Top-of-funnel (website traffic, leads, demos) consistently growing.
• Funnel conversion rates (visit→lead, lead→demo, demo→customer) tracked weekly by cohort.
• Notion team uses Equals for Revenue Recognition reporting and ARR build; "active every workday in August".
• Primary buyer personas: Founders, early Finance, CTOs.
• Connected datasources tracked: BigQuery, Import scripts, MySQL, Plaid, Postgres, QuickBooks, Redshift, Salesforce, Snowflake, Stripe.

Moat articulated around two dimensions:

• Verticalization: unlike Excel/Sheets (too horizontal), Equals targets the analysis use case specifically.
• Integration depth: native data connections that alternatives either lack or treat as an add-on; "Git model" versioning is a true differentiator vs. all spreadsheet tools.
• Network / stickiness: team workflows, shared queries, scheduled reports make it sticky at the org level (not just individual user).

Named competitors dismissed: Excel, Google Sheets, Looker, Tableau, Mode, Hex, Deepnote, Causal, Chartio, Jupyter, Sisense, Coda, Notion, Airtable, Smartsheets.

Founders:

• Bobby Pinero (CEO/Co-founder) - Intercom exec team, scaled Intercom from $1M to $180M+ ARR; led FP&A, Accounting, Biz Ops, Analytics, Data Engineering, Legal over 7 years.
• Ben McRedmond (CPO/Co-founder) - First employee at Intercom; led Growth from $1M to $50M ARR; founded Consider (email startup, 2017–2020).

Team (Series A deck): ~11 people including Head of Engineering, 2 founding engineers, 2 software engineers, founding designer, Head of Sales, SDR, Biz Ops.

Seed ask: ~$4M to fund initial team for 24 months, build V1, demonstrate PMF with small number of paying users.

Series A ask: ~$15M.

• GTM: scale Sales, Marketing, Success to 22 HC; accelerate content and product launches; explore new channels.
• R&D: 3× engineering team size in next 18 months to 22 HC.

• Archetype + why: SaaS ARR model. Equals tracks ARR, MRR, customer count, and churn - all canonical SaaS metrics. Revenue is subscription-based (implied), with a demo-driven inside-sales funnel. A standard SaaS ARR waterfall (new ARR, expansion, churn, net new ARR → total ARR → MRR → revenue) is the right frame.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly, 3 years (36 months). Month 1 = ~October 2022 (post-Series A close). Year 1 monthly detail; Years 2–3 can be quarterly summary with monthly drivers.

• Key drivers & assumptions:
• Starting ARR: - redacted; open question (see §Data gaps).
• Starting customer count: - redacted; open question.
• New customer additions per month: - ramp from current run-rate; driven by top-of-funnel (website visits → leads → demos → closes). Model as a funnel with conversion rates at each stage.
• Visit-to-lead conversion rate: tracked but value redacted; ~2–5% typical for PLG/sales-assist SaaS.
• Lead-to-demo conversion rate: tracked but value redacted; ~20–30%.
• Demo-to-customer conversion rate: tracked but value redacted; ~25–40%.
• Gross MRR churn rate: tracked monthly from April–August 2022; values redacted; <5%/month (slide claims "retention is strong").
• Net Revenue Retention: ~100–115% (B2B analytics tools with expansion from more users/seats); no expansion ARR data in deck.
• Gross margin: ~70–80% (cloud infra + support costs for SaaS at this stage).
• GTM headcount ramp: scale to 22 GTM HC post-Series A [series-a slide 14]; ramp over 12–18 months from current ~2–3 sales HC.
• R&D headcount: 3× in 18 months to 22 HC [series-a slide 14]; current ~7 eng/design HC → 22 by month 18.
• Average fully-loaded cost per HC: ~$150K–$180K/year blended (US SaaS, mix of eng and sales).
• Series A proceeds: ~$15M [series-a slide 14]; deployed over 18–24 months per stated plan.
• Burn / runway: derive from headcount + infra + G&A spend model; target 18–24 months runway.

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: Funnel grows at current trajectory; conversion rates stable; churn <3%/month; ACV at midpoint assumption; 22 HC each in GTM and R&D by month 18.
• Bull: Faster top-of-funnel (viral PLG loop kicks in via Excel-importer and templates on roadmap [series-a slide 12]); churn <1.5%/month; ACV expansion as enterprise penetration grows; NRR >120%.
• Bear: Sales cycles lengthen (macro 2022–2023 slowdown); new customer adds slow to 50% of base; churn ticks up to 4–5%/month; ACV at low end; runway shortens to <18 months.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers in one place, toggle for scenario.
2. Funnel Model - weekly/monthly website visits → leads → demos → new customers.
3. ARR Waterfall - new ARR, churned ARR, net new ARR, cumulative ARR; customer count build.
4. P&L - Revenue (MRR×12 or monthly), COGS (infra, support), Gross Profit, S&M (GTM HC + marketing), R&D (eng HC), G&A; EBITDA; net burn.
5. Headcount Plan - by department (GTM, R&D, G&A), monthly hire ramp, fully-loaded cost.
6. Cash / Runway - opening cash ($15M Series A), monthly burn, months of runway.
7. KPI Dashboard - ARR, MRR, customers, MoM growth, gross churn, NRR, CAC payback (once ACV known), DAU/WAU.