REIT Portfolio Model

The model builds revenue from property-level operations, not from broad assumptions. Each of the four segments—industrial, office, retail, and multifamily—has its own lease mechanics: expiring space based on weighted average unexpired lease term, renewal probability, downtime months, and mark-to-market spreads.

• Occupancy converges toward a stabilised level at an absorption rate, while rent per square foot blends retained and re-let rents. This approach captures re-leasing risk and income dynamics.
• All segments follow a uniform NOI build: gross potential revenue less vacancy and credit losses yields effective gross revenue, then subtracts operating expenses to arrive at segment NOI. The model reports portfolio WAULT to summarise lease length.

Projections flow through integrated statements. The capital plan tracks recurring maintenance capex, leasing capital, acquisitions, disposals, and equity funding, feeding a property roll-forward.

• Debt includes a senior amortising tranche, a bullet tranche refinanced at maturity, and a revolver that maintains a minimum cash floor; interest is calculated on opening balances. The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement are fully linked, with non-cash items like depreciation and straight-line rent adjustments reconciled.
• Corporate G&A and a low effective tax rate reflect the REIT pass-through structure. Distributions are shown as a separate contra-equity line because they typically exceed net income due to non-cash depreciation.

The model produces key REIT metrics. FFO starts with net income, adds back real estate depreciation, and removes gains on disposal.

• AFFO further deducts maintenance capex, leasing costs, and straight-line rent. Per-share figures use weighted-average shares.
• Valuation derives segment values by dividing segment NOI by segment cap rates, then subtracts net debt to calculate NAV and NAV per share. It reports premium or discount to NAV, price-to-FFO, price-to-AFFO, dividend yield, and implied cap rate.

Debt metrics include LTV on market value and historic cost, interest coverage, and debt service coverage, each with live covenant headroom against named thresholds. Sensitivity grids test NAV per share against exit cap rates and rent growth, and DSCR against interest rates.

This template supports evaluating REIT performance under base, bull, and bear scenarios.

• A single toggle switches cap rates, rent escalations, occupancies, and mark-to-market spreads, allowing users to stress-test key risks: cap rate expansion, office occupancy decline, interest rate resets on refinancing, payout sustainability, and re-leasing risk.
• The checks sheet validates balance sheet integrity, cash reconciliation, debt ties, and covenant compliance across all scenarios.
• By linking lease-level assumptions to financial statements and valuation, the model helps users assess whether a diversified REIT's projected FFO/AFFO growth, dividend coverage, and asset values justify a buy, hold, or sell decision within a five-year horizon.