Token Allocation Model

The model's inputs are organised on an Assumptions sheet, with blue cells for direct inputs and green cells for scenario-linked or derived values. Key operating drivers include a fixed total token supply with no minting, a reference TGE price used solely for allocation valuation, and a projection period of 48 months.

• A scenario selector (1, 2, or 3) activates Base, Bull, or Bear assumptions via a CHOOSE formula. The scenario matrix defines starting price, monthly price drift, and staking participation rate for each scenario.
• Allocation percentages across ten categories must sum to 100%, and per-category TGE unlock percentages, cliff periods, optional cliff-unlock chunks, and vesting durations are specified. Staking participation is scenario-linked, and a monthly treasury burn rate is an input.

Investor round entry prices for seed and private rounds are also provided, with raise amounts derived from tokens times price. These inputs drive the entire projection.

For each of the ten allocation categories and each month from 1 to 48, the model calculates monthly token unlocks as the sum of an optional cliff chunk and a linear vesting portion. The cliff chunk is a single lump released the month after the cliff period ends, calculated as vesting tokens times the chunk percentage.

• The linear portion accrues evenly over the vesting duration after the cliff, using vesting tokens times one minus chunk percentage, divided by vesting duration. Vesting tokens equal category tokens minus TGE-unlocked tokens.
• The TGE unlock itself is not part of the monthly schedule; it is seeded into month-1 cumulative unlock. Cumulative unlock in month 1 equals TGE tokens plus month-1 unlock, and each subsequent month adds that month's unlock to the prior cumulative total.

By construction, cumulative unlock at month 48 equals total supply, which is validated.

Gross circulating supply equals cumulative unlocked tokens. Staked tokens are gross circulating multiplied by the scenario-linked staking participation rate.

• Effective circulating supply, the float actually available to trade, is gross minus staked. A validation check ensures effective circulating never exceeds gross circulating in any month.
• The token price path is a compounding monthly series: month 1 equals the scenario's starting price, and each subsequent month equals prior price times one plus the scenario's monthly price drift. This produces FDV (total supply times price) and circulating market cap (gross circulating times price).
• The model also reports monthly unlock rate (new tokens divided by prior gross circulating) and annualised supply inflation as (1 + new tokens / prior circulating)^12 - 1. Treasury runway is total capital raised across all rounds divided by monthly treasury burn, expressed in months.

Investor returns per round include entry price, tokens, capital in, FDV at entry, implied dilution, and ROI at the month-48 price, with a sensitivity grid at TGE price, month-48 price, 2x month-48, 5x month-48, and a bear case of 0.5x month-48.

Gross circulating supply = cumulative unlocked tokensCopy

This token allocation model is intended for a tokenomics lead or CFO sizing unlock risk and modelling investor outcomes before a TGE. It helps visualise how cliffs, vesting durations, TGE unlocks, and staking participation interact to shape circulating supply and sell pressure over time.

• The sell-pressure sheet values each month's unlocks at the month's price and computes an overhang ratio: total monthly unlock USD divided by that month's circulating market cap. This ratio is a key tokenomics risk metric, showing how large new sell-side supply is relative to the tradeable market.
• However, the model has known limitations. The price path is a deterministic drift, not stochastic or demand-driven, and does not react to sell pressure.
• Staking participation is a flat rate applied to all circulating supply, ignoring lock-up periods or staking reward emission timing. Treasury runway assumes a flat monthly burn and does not model token sales from the treasury allocation.
• Investor ROI ignores the investor's own vesting schedule, comparing entry price to a single exit price. The model assumes fixed supply with no minting or burning beyond scheduled emissions.

Validation checks on the Summary sheet confirm allocation sums to 100%, TGE plus vesting equals total tokens, month-48 cumulative unlock equals total supply, effective circulating never exceeds gross, token price stays positive, and overhang ratio is non-negative.