Trampoline Park Model

The model's core relationships start with court-hours, calculated as courts multiplied by 11 operating hours per day and 355 operating days per year. Demand flows through a three-tier waterfall.

• Party bookings are served first and unconditionally, each reserving one court for 1.5 hours. Member visits follow as a prepaid entitlement in the model, with each member visiting eight times annually.
• Single-visit walk-in demand fills whatever court-hours remain, capped by a safety-density limit of 4.3 jumpers per court-hour. This sequential allocation means the premium party channel subtracts supply from the mass-market walk-in channel rather than simply competing alongside it.

Party demand grows at 13.0% annually, walk-in demand at 12.0%, and member signups at 7.0% with a 35% annual churn. These rates force notable capacity squeezes in specific years.

Court expansion follows a one-year-lagged rule: courts increase by four if prior-year blended utilization exceeds 97%. Because this trigger reacts only to a year that has already crossed the line, the ceiling can bind hard before help arrives.

• In the model, Year 2 closes below the threshold, but Year 3's growth on a flat court count pushes utilization past 100%, leaving demand unserved. Courts then open in Year 4, resetting utilization.
• A second squeeze occurs in Year 7, with relief landing beyond the model's horizon. This squeeze-then-relief-then-squeeze pattern is a central output, showing how demand growth interacts with lumpy capacity additions.

The model also isolates the party channel's contribution to unserved demand, revealing that party growth alone accounts for a substantial portion of the first bottleneck.

The model produces a four-line revenue build: general admission tickets, party packages, membership dues, and food and beverage per-capita spending. Cost of revenue is priced per line rather than blended, with party host labor, favors, and F&B cost of goods separate from near-zero direct costs on tickets and dues.

• A court-monitor safety labor line scales with court-hours open, reflecting an insurance-driven staffing ratio. Management, marketing, occupancy, and elevated general-liability insurance complete the cost structure.
• The P&L flows to EBITDA, EBIT, and net income. An unlevered free-cash-flow bridge discounts NOPAT plus depreciation, less capex and working capital changes, at WACC.

Working capital nets the unearned-membership liability as a cash source. Enterprise value derives from explicit-period present value plus a Gordon-growth terminal value, less net debt, yielding equity value and value per share.

This layout suits a single-location venue evaluating how party bookings, memberships, and walk-in traffic interact. The membership module treats annual dues as a recurring subscription liability, with unearned revenue carried at 50% of closing members times the dues rate.

• Member visits dilute blended GA revenue per visit even though they carry no incremental ticket price, because the denominator includes both paying and non-paying visits. The model's disclosed counterfactual shows that holding party bookings flat would have freed enough court-hours to cover a majority of the first capacity shortfall.
• For an operator or analyst, the dashboard consolidates courts, blended utilization, party share of court-hours, unearned membership liability, revenue, EBITDA, and value per share. This helps assess whether promoting parties or memberships adds overall value once their effect on walk-in capacity and operating costs is considered.