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C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for C.H. Robinson. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from C.H. Robinson’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$20.94B
from $17.60B
FCF FY30
$5.04B
Margin 24.1%
Enterprise value
$70.43B
4.0× LTM revenue
Equity value
$69.20B
Net debt $1.23B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
3.5%
-10.0%baseline 3.5%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
0.2%
0.0%baseline 0.2%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the C.H. Robinson forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is C.H. Robinson's primary business model?+

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is one of the world's largest third-party logistics (3PL) providers, offering freight transportation, supply chain management, and brokerage services. The company operates an asset-light model, leveraging a massive network of over 450,000 contract carriers rather than owning its own transportation assets.

How does C.H. Robinson generate revenue, and what are its main segments?+

C.H. Robinson generates revenue primarily through its North American Surface Transportation (NAST) and Global Forwarding segments. NAST revenue is driven by truckload and LTL volumes and prices, while Global Forwarding revenue is influenced by ocean TEUs and air freight tonnage. The company also has an 'All Other and Corporate' segment, including Robinson Fresh.

What is the assumed revenue growth rate for C.H. Robinson in the financial model?+

The financial model for C.H. Robinson assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 3.54% across the forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030. This assumption helps project the company's top-line performance through varying market conditions.

What is C.H. Robinson's capital expenditure strategy, and how is it reflected in the financial model?+

C.H. Robinson maintains an extremely asset-light business model, with capital expenditures primarily focused on technology investments like Navisphere, generative AI, and automated pricing algorithms. The financial model reflects this with a low Capex as a percentage of revenue, set at approximately 0.19%.

How does C.H. Robinson's working capital profile impact its cash flow?+

C.H. Robinson's working capital profile is positive, typically representing 5% to 8% of gross revenues, because the company must pay carriers faster than it collects from shippers. Consequently, working capital consumes cash during periods of rapid revenue growth and releases cash during freight recessions.

What is the purpose of the downloadable C.H. Robinson financial model?+

The downloadable Excel model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and operational forecasting tool for C.H. Robinson. Its purpose is to determine if the company's 'Lean AI' productivity initiatives and cost-cutting measures can drive sustained operating leverage and margin expansion through the highly cyclical freight market.

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