CF Industries (CF) Financial Forecast Calculator
Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for CF Industries. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from CF Industries’s most recent SEC filings.
Assumptions
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Frequently asked
What does CF Industries do and what are its main products?+
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, primarily serving the agricultural and industrial sectors. Its main products include UAN, Granular Urea, and Ammonia, which together contribute approximately 80% of its revenue. The company operates a highly efficient, asset-heavy manufacturing network, anchored by the world's largest ammonia production complex.
What are the key factors that drive CF Industries' revenue?+
CF Industries' revenue is highly sensitive to commodity spreads, specifically the price of natural gas (the primary feedstock) versus the global selling price of nitrogen fertilisers. The company holds a structural cost advantage due to historically cheaper North American natural gas compared to European and Asian marginal producers. North America drives the vast majority of its revenue and production.
What is CF Industries' typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+
CF Industries typically allocates 7-14% of its revenue to capital expenditures, reflecting its asset-heavy business model. Historically, maintenance capex made up 70% of this, but it is shifting towards a 50/50 split with growth capex due to major projects like the Blue Point low-carbon ammonia joint venture.
What are the key assumptions for revenue growth and cost of goods sold in the CF Industries financial model?+
The financial model for CF Industries assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 9.63% and a cost of goods sold as a percentage of revenue of about 65.54%. These assumptions are crucial for forecasting the company's future profitability and cash flow generation over the forecast horizon.
How does the financial model evaluate CF Industries' equity valuation?+
The financial model evaluates CF Industries' equity valuation and free cash flow generation capacity. This analysis helps an equity research analyst determine the impact of natural gas input costs and global nitrogen pricing on the company's aggressive share repurchase programme and dividend sustainability.
What is the forecast horizon for the downloadable CF Industries financial model?+
The downloadable financial model for CF Industries provides forecasts spanning from Fiscal Year 2026 through Fiscal Year 2030. This forecast horizon allows analysts to project the company's financial performance and position over a significant medium-term period.
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