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Old Dominion (ODFL) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Old Dominion. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Old Dominion’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$9.15B
from $5.87B
FCF FY30
$1.56B
Margin 17.1%
Enterprise value
$21.07B
3.6× LTM revenue
Equity value
$21.12B
Net debt -$48.7M
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
9.3%
-10.0%baseline 9.3%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
10.6%
0.0%baseline 10.6%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Old Dominion forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What services does Old Dominion Freight Line provide?+

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is a leading North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier, offering regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. The company is known for its premium service, boasting a 99% on-time delivery rate and a 0.1% cargo claims ratio.

How does Old Dominion Freight Line generate its revenue?+

Old Dominion Freight Line primarily generates revenue from LTL Services, which account for approximately 99% of its total revenue. The company leverages its premium service quality to maintain strong pricing power, even amidst fluctuating freight volumes.

What are the typical capital expenditure requirements for Old Dominion Freight Line?+

Old Dominion Freight Line typically invests 8% to 12% of its revenue in capital expenditures. This investment is split, with approximately 40% dedicated to maintenance capex for replacing aging tractors and 60% for growth capex to expand its service centre network and fleet.

What is the projected revenue growth rate for Old Dominion Freight Line in the financial model?+

The financial model forecasts Old Dominion Freight Line's revenue growth at approximately 9.3%. This projection considers the company's ability to maintain pricing discipline despite navigating recent freight market downturns.

What justifies Old Dominion Freight Line's premium valuation multiple?+

Old Dominion Freight Line's premium valuation is justified by its industry-leading operating ratio and strong pricing power. The company consistently demonstrates superior service quality and profitability compared to its publicly traded peers.

Is a financial model available for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)?+

Yes, a comprehensive three-statement forecast and valuation model is available for Old Dominion Freight Line. This model helps equity research analysts assess if the company's premium valuation is supported by its financial performance and strategic position.

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