Gearflow Financial Model

Gearflow.com is the only transparent parts marketplace built for the construction equipment industry. It aggregates vetted part suppliers (OEMs, aftermarket, refurbished, obsolete, replica) into a single searchable storefront, replacing the offline, single-dealer procurement process contractors rely on today.

Value to buyers: best price/availability across millions of genuine and aftermarket SKUs, one-stop procurement, dedicated customer support (1-800 line).

Value to suppliers: turnkey e-commerce channel, organic SEO exposure for long-tail part numbers, no prior digital presence needed.

• TAM: $45B annual US construction equipment parts spend
• SOM (dollar): $21B from underserved small-to-mid contractors ($1M–$50M revenue)
• TAM (companies): 3M US construction companies
• SAM (companies): 750K contractors over $1M revenue
• SOM (companies): 525K contractors between $1M–$50M revenue
• Macro tailwind: Construction productivity -23% since 1990 vs. +309% for the overall economy (McKinsey) - parts procurement friction is a named cause.
• No SAM dollar figure provided in deck.

• Commission / take-rate marketplace model: Gearflow earns a commission on each transaction.
• Take rate: 10% of GMV
• Revenue = GMV × 10% take rate.
• Suppliers list inventory; buyers transact on platform. No subscription or listing-fee model disclosed in deck.
• Future revenue levers (roadmap): fleet maintenance tooling, fleet valuation data, buyer dashboards - potential SaaS/data add-ons not yet monetised.

• GMV growth: "6x Growth" driven by organic demand; specific absolute GMV run-rate figure is redacted in the deck image.
• Take rate confirmed at 10%
• Timeline milestones shown: MVP Launch → Market validation & customer research → Angel fundraise → Replatform
• April '21 GMV called out as a reference point; absolute value redacted
• Power buyers: a subset of customers (% redacted) make up 50% of GMV
• Repeat customers have higher GMV and AOV than one-time customers (chart directional, values redacted)
• Supplier pipeline: 126 suppliers active & in queue; 700K SKUs live; 14.4M SKUs in queue
• SEO moat: winning organic search for long-tail part numbers (e.g. "JCB Bush Part 332/K8544")
• Customer testimonials indicate price competitiveness and loyalty ("never go anywhere else")

• Take rate: 10% gross margin on GMV
• Power buyer cohort generates 50% of GMV; repeat customer AOV is higher than one-time customer AOV (relative, not absolute)
• By 2023 target: 90% of core customers' parts spend to run through Gearflow - implies near-total wallet share capture as the LTV thesis.

Competitive positioning (quadrant: Industry Specificity vs. True Modern Marketplace):

• Incumbents: eBay, Amazon, Facebook Marketplace, Craigslist - generic, not construction-specific.
• Industry incumbents: Brokers, Auctions, Listing Sites - industry-specific but not modern marketplaces.
• Gearflow: only player at the intersection of construction-industry specificity AND true modern marketplace.

Moat sources:

1. Trust / vetting - construction suppliers require pre-existing industry relationships; outsiders face a trust barrier to entry.
2. Long-tail SEO - wins organic search for specific part numbers that no other platform indexes properly.
3. Supplier lock-in - self-service tools and supplier self-sufficiency pipeline create switching costs.
4. Data network effect - parts attribution database informs personalised buying and future fleet management products.

Team (slide 17):

• Luke Powers - Founder, CEO
• Ben Preston - Co-Founder, CMO (Performance & Content Marketing)
• Sarah Wilcox - Director, Business Development (Heavy Equipment Industry Expertise)
• Melissa Cristobal - Operations Coordinator (Customer Support)
• Karen Scally - Content Specialist
• Erik Cameron - Lead Software Engineer (Database Architecture & Product Development)
• Michael Gingras - Software Engineer

Round: Seed Use of funds: Unlock supplier self-sufficiency tools → personalise buying experience → unlock local dealers/OEMs → streamline fleet maintenance → fleet management reporting → auction avoidance tools.

Archetype + why: Marketplace GMV / commission revenue model. Gearflow's economics are pure marketplace: revenue = GMV × take rate (10%). The business scales on transaction volume, not headcount or inventory. A 3-statement integrated model should sit underneath, but the primary forecast logic is GMV-driven with commission revenue flowing to the P&L.

Forecast horizon & granularity:

• Monthly for Years 1–2 (2021–2022, to reflect early-stage cohort dynamics and the seed deployment curve).
• Quarterly for Years 3–4 (2023–2024, per the deck's stated 2023 milestone).
• 3-year model is minimum; 4-year preferred given the 2023 wallet-share target.

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Demand side (buyer)*

• Active buyer count - starting base; growth rate
• One-time vs. repeat buyer mix - power buyers drive 50% of GMV
• AOV by cohort (one-time vs. repeat) - repeat AOV is higher; absolute values not in deck
• Orders per repeat buyer per year
• Wallet share capture - target 90% of core customers' parts spend by 2023; ramp from current base

*Supply side (supplier)*

• Active suppliers: 126 in pipeline; ramp driven by seed investment in self-service tools
• SKUs live: 700K; path to 14.4M in queue
• Supplier conversion rate from queue to live

*Revenue*

• GMV = active buyers × orders per buyer × AOV
• Commission revenue = GMV × 10% take rate
• Future SaaS/data revenue: not modelled until product ships [roadmap only; ASSUMED: not in base case]

*Cost structure*

• S&M: primarily SEO/content-driven; budget for supplier acquisition team
• R&D / Engineering: core team of 2 engineers now; seed funds additional hires
• G&A: small team, scale modestly

Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):

• Base: Wallet-share ramp to ~50% of core customers by 2023; buyer growth 50% YoY; 10% take rate held constant.
• Bull: Wallet-share hits 90% target by 2023; faster supplier onboarding unlocks higher AOV selection; potential take-rate expansion to 12–13%.
• Bear: Buyer growth slows to 25% YoY; wallet-share capture stalls at 30%; Amazon Business or an OEM aggregator enters the market; take rate under pressure.

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers in one place, colour-coded inputs)
2. GMV build (buyer cohorts × AOV × orders/year → gross GMV → net GMV after returns/cancellations)
3. Revenue & take-rate bridge (GMV → commission revenue)
4. P&L (revenue, COGS, gross profit, S&M, R&D, G&A, EBITDA)
5. Headcount plan (engineering, BD/supplier success, content/SEO, ops)
6. Cash & runway (seed proceeds, monthly burn, months to next raise)
7. KPI summary (GMV, active buyers, repeat buyer %, wallet share %, take rate, revenue, gross margin %)
8. Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)