KO

Kora Financial Model

Four-component integrated system branded "Kora Home Energy System":

• Smart Panel - circuit-level visibility and control over every room; replaces legacy electrical panel.
• Home App - automatic energy optimisation based on habits, weather, and real-time rates.
• Powerblocks - modular battery storage, up to 112 kWh per home (vs. Tesla Powerwall 3 max 94.5 kWh).
• Energy Trading / Kora VPP - aggregates home batteries into a Virtual Power Plant; homeowners access wholesale energy markets for the first time, enabled by FERC Order 2222.

Value props: backup power resilience, energy cost savings, and monetisation of stored energy back to the grid.

• TAM - U.S. electricity market: $500B+ annually.
• SAM - Home energy management market: $150–200B annually.
• SOM - Serviceable market for Kora: $40–150B annually.
• Macro tailwind: "$41 Trillion Transition" framing for global electrification investment.
• California alone discards up to $1.2B of renewable energy per year.
• No CAGR or year cited for market figures; no SOM unit penetration assumptions given.

Not fully detailed in deck. Inferred from product description:

1. Hardware sale - upfront sale of Smart Panel + Powerblocks system to homeowners. Implied DTC channel (CEO's Trifecta background; KoraPower.com website shown).
2. Software / app subscription - likely recurring fee for Home App optimisation features (not explicitly priced in deck).
3. Energy trading revenue share - Kora VPP participates in wholesale energy markets; revenue share with homeowners implied but split not disclosed.

No ASP, subscription price, or revenue share percentage stated in deck.

• $2.6M SAFE round, oversubscribed, led by Moneta AI Fund III - completed.
• CEO Greg Connolly built prior company Trifecta to $100M ARR in 4.5 years.
• CTO Carlos Restrepo: former CTO of Sonnen, which sold to Shell for $500M.
• No Kora-specific revenue, unit sales, customer count, installation count, pipeline, or waitlist figures disclosed in deck.

Primary named competitor: Tesla (Powerwall 3). Kora's stated differentiation:

• Larger storage capacity: up to 112 kWh vs. Powerwall 3's max 94.5 kWh.
• Wholesale energy market access via VPP (Tesla does not offer this to consumers).
• Native circuit-level visibility - no third-party add-ons needed.
• Higher PV intake, tougher enclosure, colder-climate ready.
• FERC Order 2222 regulatory moat: enables DER aggregation; first-mover framing.

Other incumbents (Enphase, SunPower, utilities, Generac) not named in deck.

Team:

• Greg Connolly, CEO - Founder/CEO of Trifecta ($500M revenue); DTC expertise.
• Carlos Restrepo, CTO - Former CTO of Sonnen (exit to Shell for $500M).
• Steve Pope, VP Engineering - 35-year veteran; former Apple (under Jobs & Wozniak).
• Tyler Thomas, CAIO - Former CTO Trifecta; 20-year software architect.
• Murray Baker, Principal Firmware Engineer - 30-year veteran; former IBM.

Funding:

• Completed: $2.6M SAFE (oversubscribed), Moneta AI Fund III-led.

Archetype + why: DTC hardware + recurring revenue (hardware P&L with attached SaaS/VPP revenue layer). The business sells a high-ASP physical system (smart panel + batteries) direct to homeowners, with software subscription and energy trading revenue stacking on top. This is closest to a Nest/Tesla Energy hybrid: unit-economics-driven hardware model with a subscription attach rate. A full 3-statement model should underpin it, with a dedicated hardware gross margin build and a recurring revenue ARR schedule.

Forecast horizon & granularity:

• Years 1–2: monthly (pre-revenue / early ramp; cash burn is critical).
• Years 3–5: quarterly then annual.
• 5-year total horizon standard for hardware-SaaS at this stage.

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Demand / units:*

• Units sold per month
• Average system ASP (hardware)
• Installation attach rate and installer margin

*Hardware economics:*

• Hardware COGS per unit
• Gross margin on hardware

*Software / subscription:*

• Monthly subscription fee per home
• Attach rate of software to hardware customers

*VPP / energy trading:*

• % of installed base enrolled in VPP
• Average monthly VPP revenue per enrolled home
• Kora revenue share of VPP earnings

*Go-to-market:*

• CAC - DTC digital channel
• LTV = hardware margin + (subscription ARPU × avg tenure months) + VPP share
• Payback period

*Cost structure:*

• Headcount ramp
• R&D, firmware, app development spend
• Marketing / customer acquisition spend
• Working capital: hardware inventory build

*Market sizing bridge to units:*

• SOM $40–150B implies tens of millions of addressable homes; model should capture % penetration of target geographies (CA first)

Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):

• Base: Hardware ASP ~$20K, gross margin 50%, 100 units in Y1 growing 3× YoY, 25% VPP attach, software attach 75%.
• Bull: Faster DTC ramp (CEO's Trifecta playbook), higher VPP revenue as grid services markets deepen post-FERC 2222, ASP holds or rises as competition lags.
• Bear: Supply chain delays inflate COGS, hardware gross margin compresses to 35–40%, VPP market development slower than expected, CAC higher due to nascent category education cost.

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard (all drivers in one place, colour-coded)
2. Units & revenue build (hardware units, ASP, hardware revenue; software subscribers, MRR/ARR; VPP enrolled homes, revenue)
3. Hardware COGS & gross margin build
4. Income statement (IS) - monthly Y1–2, quarterly Y3–5
5. Cash flow statement - burn rate, runway; highlight inventory cash drag
6. Balance sheet (BS) - inventory, PP&E if manufacturing, SAFE note
7. Headcount & opex schedule
8. Unit economics summary (CAC, LTV, LTV/CAC, payback)
9. Scenario toggle (Base / Bull / Bear)
10. KPI dashboard: units installed, installed base, ARR, gross margin %, cash runway