AR

Arrival Financial Model

Four commercial EV product lines, all designed for Microfactory robotic assembly:

Core differentiators:

• Microfactories: 20,000 m² footprint vs. ~2,000,000 m² traditional OEM; CapEx $44M per factory (10k units/yr) vs. $950M for VW Wrzesnia equivalent; setup 6 months vs. 36 months.
• Proprietary composites: 25x tooling cost reduction vs. steel; no paint shop or metal stamping.
• Plug & Play components: 18-month development cycle vs. 3+ years; 20% supplier margin reduction.
• Modular skateboard platform: shared across all vehicle types; FWD/RWD/AWD.
• In-house software: 500+ software engineers; OTA upgradeable; cloud-connected; AV-ready.
• ~180 filed patent innovations across batteries, composites, robotics, Microfactories, modular HW/SW.

• Total combined addressable market (van + bus): ~$430B
• Total van addressable market: ~$280B; initial BE LCV van SAM: ~$70B
• Total bus addressable market: ~$154B; initial BE LCV bus SAM: ~$40B
• Annual van addressable volume by 2025: ~2.0M units
• Annual bus addressable volume by 2025: ~131k units
• E-commerce growth driving van demand: 37% increase 2020–2024
• No SOM figures provided for Arrival's specific capture rate.

• Primary: Direct vehicle sales to commercial fleet operators (B2B). UPS is anchor customer; bus orders via public transit operators (LOI with Ember noted).
• Pricing: Not explicitly stated per unit. TCO comparison implies van purchase price ~$92K; bus purchase price ~$396K. These are total cost of ownership comparisons, not pure list prices.
• Future / optional revenue streams (not in financial projections): SaaS fleet management platform, emissions credit sales (ZEV / ACT regulations).
• Channels: Direct to fleet; Hyundai/Kia partnership for joint vehicle development and potential licensing.
• Revenue mix 2024E: Van 49%, Bus 22%, Large Van 17%, Small Vehicle Platform 12%.

No revenue, ARR, or historical financial figures in the deck - Arrival was pre-revenue at time of presentation.

• Van TCO (100 km/day, 365 days/yr, 10 years): Arrival ~$92K (~$0.25/km) vs. Diesel ~$111K (~$0.30/km) vs. Competitor E-Van ~$127K (~$0.35/km). ~17% improvement vs. diesel; ~28% vs. competitor EV.
• Bus TCO (250 km/day, 365 days/yr, 10 years): Arrival ~$396K (~$0.43/km) vs. Diesel ~$752K (~$0.82/km) vs. Competitor E-Bus ~$790K (~$0.87/km). ~47% improvement vs. diesel; ~50% vs. competitor EV.
• Projected gross margins (2024E): Bus 38%, Large Van 34%, Van 21%, Small Vehicle Platform 18%; blended gross profit $3.7B on $14.1B revenue (~26% blended).
• Microfactory OpEx: $12M/yr for 1 factory (10k units); $120M for 10 factories (100k units).
• Microfactory CapEx: $44M per factory (10k units/yr).

Competitors cited: Canoo, Fisker, Hyliion, Lordstown, Nikola, Workhorse, XLFleet.

Arrival's stated moat:

• Arrival is the only player targeting commercial vehicle fleet operators (van + bus) among listed EV SPACs.
• Fully vertically integrated (components, materials, software, robotics, factory process) - no peer in the comp set has comparable vertical integration.
• Lowest EV/TAM ratio in peer set at 1.3% (vs. peer range 3.4%–10.9%).
• EV/2024E Revenue of 0.4x vs. peer median 1.3x; EV/2024E EBITDA of 1.7x vs. peer median 4.7x - management-implied deep discount.
• ~180 filed patent innovations (composites, robotics, Microfactories, battery, SW/HW).
• Contracted order book of 20,000 units (~$1.2B) - only Nikola ($1.4B, trucks) comparable.

Arrival management (key): Denis Sverdlov (Founder/CEO, prior $1.5B tech exit), Avinash Rugoobur (President, led Cruise acquisition at GM for $1B+), Mike Ableson (CEO Automotive, 35+ yrs GM).

CIIG management: Peter Cuneo (Chairman/CEO, Marvel Entertainment turnaround to $4.5B Disney sale), Michael Minnick (CIO), Gavin Cuneo (COO).

Transaction / funding:

• Total proceeds: $660M
• CIIG trust cash: $260M
• PIPE: $400M (40M shares @ $10.00/share)
• Transaction expenses: $60M
• Net cash on balance sheet post-close: $669M
• Use of funds: Fund growth (Microfactory buildout, product launch). Specific capex/opex allocation not broken out in deck.
• Pro forma enterprise value: $5.39B
• Pro forma equity value: $6.06B (606.179M shares @ $10.00)
• Existing Arrival shareholders: 88.1% of pro forma equity
• PIPE investors: 7%; CIIG public shareholders: 4%; CIIG sponsor: 1%
• Zero debt on pro forma balance sheet.

This is a SPAC / de-SPAC transaction. The appropriate primary model framework is a de-SPAC operating forecast model - i.e., a full 3-statement operating forecast (IS / BS / CF) for the post-combination Arrival Group, driven by vehicle volume ramp and Microfactory economics, with a deal summary tab reconciling SPAC proceeds and pro forma capitalization. A pure accretion/dilution merger model is not applicable (no target being folded into an acquirer - this is a private company going public via SPAC).

• Archetype: EV OEM volume-ramp operating model with SPAC deal tab. Comparable to how Nikola, Lordstown, and Fisker SPAC models were built. Revenue driven by unit volume × ASP, gross margin by product mix, EBITDA by operating leverage vs. Microfactory OpEx.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 2021–2024E (as per deck projections). Annual granularity with quarterly detail for 2021–2022 to capture SOP timing (Bus Q4 2021, Van/Large Van Q3 2022). Extend to 2025 for steady-state sensitivity.

• Key drivers & assumptions:

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: Deck projections as stated - Bus SOP Q4 2021, Van Q3 2022, ramp to 257k units by 2024.
• Bull: Faster Microfactory deployments, additional UPS option exercised (10k extra), Hyundai/Kia platform licensing revenue, SaaS layer.
• Bear: SOP delays of 2–4 quarters (high probability given EV startup track record), lower initial yields, CapEx overruns, UPS order cancellation or modification.
• Key flex variables: SOP date by product, volume ramp curve, ASP (fleet pricing pressure), gross margin by product (composite/component cost maturation), CapEx per Microfactory.

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Deal Summary - SPAC sources & uses, pro forma cap table, ownership waterfall (88%/7%/4%/1%), EV bridge
2. Assumptions - Volume ramp by product, ASP by product, gross margin by product, Microfactory count + CapEx, opex drivers
3. Income Statement - Revenue by product line, COGS, gross profit, SG&A, R&D, EBITDA, D&A, EBIT, interest, taxes, net income (2021–2025E, annual)
4. Balance Sheet - Working capital, PP&E (Microfactory count × unit cost), cash, debt (zero at close), equity
5. Cash Flow Statement - Operating CF, CapEx (Microfactory buildout schedule), free cash flow, ending cash
6. Valuation / Benchmarking - EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA vs. peer set (Canoo, Fisker, Nikola, Workhorse, etc.) at 2023E and 2024E
7. Scenarios - Toggle for Base / Bull / Bear on SOP timing, volume, ASP