Numeral Financial Model
Fintech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
API-first payment automation platform connecting tech companies and financial institutions to the banking system via a single API
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
Numeral is an API-first payment-automation platform connecting technology companies and financial institutions to the banking system through one integration. It provides infrastructure for businesses that need to initiate and manage payments without building direct bank connections.
The commercial model is expected to combine recurring platform access with usage-based fees on payments processed. This makes Numeral an infrastructure SaaS business whose revenue scales both with customer adoption and the activity flowing through live integrations.
The model should forecast connected customers, accounts or bank integrations, platform subscription value, payment count, average payment size, and transaction yield. Implementation conversion, monthly minimums, customer expansion, and API or bank-rail costs should be tracked separately to show true contribution margin.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Numeral
numeral.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Numeral
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Numeral model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
API-first platform with three layers:
- Numeral API - REST API for initiating payment orders (SEPA credit/debit, SWIFT, Faster Payments, BACS/CHAPS), handling returns, reconciliations, account reports, events/webhooks
- Numeral Connector - pre-built connectors to partner banks (no custom IT dev required per bank)
- Numeral Dashboard - web UI for monitoring, alerts, file management
Core value props:
- Add payment methods (instant payment, direct debit) with zero new development
- Multi-bank connectivity; no lock-in to single partner bank
- Unit-level API calls; Numeral handles batch/cut-off logic per bank
- Scales payment ops without growing the finance team
Platform attributes: cloud-based, EU-located servers, ISO 27001, GDPR compliant, 99.9% availability
Market
- B2B payments volume: $200,000bn by 2028, up from $120,000bn in 2018 (Goldman Sachs)
- AP & AR automation software market: $6bn by 2024, up from $3.6bn in 2019 (MarketsAndMarkets)
- Implied CAGR on AP/AR automation: ~11% (2019–2024)
Revenue model
Not explicitly stated in deck. Based on product description and comparable API fintech infra companies:
- SaaS subscription + per-transaction fee model: platform/access fee per connected account/bank, plus per-payment volume fee (basis points or flat per transaction). Rationale: standard model for payment API infra (cf. Stripe Treasury, Modulr, Currencycloud).
- Distribution channels (stated): Direct sales to fintech/tech companies; bank partnerships (white-label); software partnerships (AP/AR/accounting/TMS SaaS embed)
Competition / moat
Competitive positioning: 2×2 matrix (API-first vs. Legacy tech × Financial services vs. Technology provider)
- Numeral's claimed position: API-first + Technology provider quadrant (upper-right) - alone in that quadrant
- API-first / Financial services competitors: Treezor, Swan, Solarisbank, Currencycloud
- API-first / Technology provider (partial): Sentenial, Finastra
- Legacy tech / Financial services: Citigroup, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Natixis
- Legacy tech / Technology provider: Avaloq, Temenos, Kyriba, Sycomore, Exalog
Moat claims: pre-built bank connectors create switching costs; multi-rail/multi-bank abstraction hard to replicate quickly; eFounders studio pedigree (Front, Aircall, Spendesk, Upflow, Swan)
Team & funding ask / use of funds
Team:
- Édouard Mandon, CEO - VP Product at iBanFirst; Head of Finance Projects & Systems at Jumia (NYSE)
- Hichem Mâalmi, CTO - Tech Lead at Qonto; Software Architect at Boursorama
Backer: eFounders (studio behind Front, Aircall, Spendesk, Upflow, Swan)
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: API SaaS with usage-based overlay (subscription + per-transaction). Numeral sells infrastructure access to fintechs and tech companies; revenue scales with connected accounts and payment volume processed - classic infra SaaS with a transactional layer. Model should track both recurring platform fees and volume-driven fees separately.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years monthly (Year 1–2 monthly for cash/burn visibility; Year 3 can be quarterly). Studio-backed, pre-revenue stage warrants monthly granularity for runway management.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- Number of new customers signed per month - ramp from 1–2/month in Y1 to 5–8/month by Y3; rationale: direct B2B sales motion with long enterprise cycles
- Average connected bank accounts per customer 2–4; rationale: multi-bank is the core pitch, but customers start with 1–2
- Monthly platform fee per connected account €500–€2,000; rationale: comparable infra SaaS (Modulr, Currencycloud pricing ranges)
- Average monthly payment volume per customer (€) - varies widely by customer type; fintech customers likely €10M–€500M/month processed
- Take rate / transaction fee (bps) 0.5–2bps or flat per transaction; rationale: low-margin infra pricing, volume-driven
- Customer churn rate 5% annual; rationale: infrastructure products have high switching cost, low churn
- Headcount plan - 5–8 FTEs at model start (2 founders + eng/sales); scaling to 20–30 by Y3
- Gross margin 60–75%; rationale: infrastructure SaaS with bank connectivity costs (API fees, compliance, hosting)
- CAC €15,000–€40,000 per customer (direct enterprise sales); rationale: B2B infra sales cycle 3–6 months
- Countries/rails live: France + Germany + UK (2022 roadmap); expansion to Spain, Italy assumed Y2
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: 3–5 new customers/month by Y2; average deal €1,500/month platform + modest volume fees; 70% gross margin
- Bull: bank partnership channel kicks in Y2 driving indirect volume; higher payment volumes per customer; faster country expansion
- Bear: long sales cycles; only direct channel; lower-than-expected payment volumes per customer; higher compliance/infra costs compressing gross margin to 55%
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers in one place
- Revenue build - customers × ARPU (platform fee + transaction fee); separate fintech vs. tech company cohorts
- Headcount & opex - by department (engineering, sales, ops, G&A)
- P&L (Income Statement) - monthly, 3 years
- Cash & runway - starting cash (to be input), burn rate, months of runway; key for a seed/Series A raise
- KPI dashboard - ARR, net revenue retention, payment volume processed (GMV), take rate, LTV/CAC
- Scenario toggle - Base / Bull / Bear switchable via dropdown
Frequently asked
Is the Numeral financial model free?+
Yes. The Numeral model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Numeral's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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