Oklo SPAC Financial Model

• Aurora powerhouse: liquid metal fast fission reactor. Two sizes: 15 MWe and 50 MWe (scalable).
• Design life: 40 years. Estimated construction time: <1 year. Footprint: <2 acres.
• Key differentiators vs. conventional nuclear: smaller scale, simpler design, passive safety, factory fabrication, no upfront customer capex, quick build.
• Fuel flexibility: operates on fresh HALEU or recycled spent nuclear fuel. EBR-II (1964–1994) is the demonstrated ancestor.
• Second business line (upside): fuel recycling - reprocess spent nuclear fuel for resale and internal supply; target commercial-scale facility by early 2030s.
• Target customers: data centers, defense, factories, industrial, off-grid/rural, utilities.

• U.S. nuclear capacity stagnant for 30+ years at ~100 GW while U.S. electricity consumption grew >40% (2.8T kWh in 1990 → 4.1T kWh in 2022).
• To achieve net-zero U.S. grid by 2050: up to 770 GW of new clean baseload required; nuclear could supply ~200 GW of that, implying a ~3x increase from current ~100 GW operating fleet to ~300 GW by 2050.
• Deck does not provide explicit TAM/SAM/SOM dollar figures for Oklo's addressable slice.
• Policy tailwinds: IRA investment and production tax credits for nuclear; $700M for advanced nuclear fuel; $250B DOE Loan Program Office; FY23/FY24 Appropriations providing $3B for nuclear support; ADVANCE Act.
• Customer pipeline: >700 MWe under non-binding indications of interest.

• Primary: owner-operator - Oklo builds, owns, and operates Aurora powerhouses and sells electricity/heat directly to customers under long-term PPAs. No upfront capital cost to customer. Revenue is recurring and contracted.
• Pricing (NOAK illustrative):
• 15 MWe: ~$105/MWh average real power price → ~$13M annual revenue per plant
• 50 MWe: ~$90/MWh average real power price → ~$36M annual revenue per plant
• Capacity factor assumed: 92% (generating ~121,000 MWh/yr for 15 MWe; ~403,000 MWh/yr for 50 MWe).
• Secondary (future, not modeled at close): fuel recycling services, byproduct sales, specialty isotopes.
• No revenue or signed contracts in place at time of presentation.

• $0 revenue - pre-commercial, no binding customer contracts.
• Customer interest: >700 MWe under non-binding indications of interest (not binding LOIs).
• Projects in pipeline: 3 sites
• 1 × 15 MWe at Idaho National Laboratory (site + fuel secured; first electricity target 2026/27)
• 2 × 15 MWe in Southern Ohio via SODI partnership (non-binding, announced May 2023)
• Team: 51 employees including 8 PhDs (16%) and 20 Masters in Engineering/Science (39%). ~10% are former NRC staff.
• Regulatory: first-ever advanced reactor Combined License Application (COLA) submitted in March 2020; NRC denied in 2022 (requested more info); new application targeted late 2024/early 2025. 9 formal pre-application meetings, 70+ coordination meetings, 50+ licensing documents shared.
• DOE awards: 4 cost-share awards for fuel recycling R&D.
• Seed funding from Y Combinator (2014), Series A led by Data Collective & Mithril (2015). Sam Altman lead investor and Chairman since 2015.

15 MWe Aurora (NOAK)

• Revenue from power sales (40 yr): $508M
• Operating expenses (40 yr): $120M
• Plant profit (40 yr): $388M (75% life-of-plant margin)
• Capital costs (40 yr total): $107M
• Initial plant construction: $24M
• Initial fuel load: $33M (4,750 kg HALEU @ $7,000/kg)
• Refueling (3× over 40 yr, 2,375 kg each): $50M
• Plant cash flow (40 yr): $281M (2.5x capital costs)
• Annual plant cash flow (steady state): $10M/yr
• Annual cash margin (steady state): 76.4%
• FOAK variant: plant cost ~$34M, annual opex fixed $3.8M, variable $6/MWh

50 MWe Aurora (NOAK)

• Revenue from power sales (40 yr): $1,452M
• Operating expenses (40 yr): $288M
• Plant profit (40 yr): $1,163M (80% life-of-plant margin)
• Capital costs (40 yr total): $198M
• Initial plant construction: $61M
• Initial fuel load: $55M (7,800 kg HALEU @ $7,000/kg)
• Refueling (3× over 40 yr, 3,900 kg each): $82M
• Plant cash flow (40 yr): $966M (5.0x capital costs)
• Annual plant cash flow (steady state): $29M/yr
• Annual cash margin (steady state): 80.1%
• FOAK variant: plant cost ~$86M, annual opex fixed $7.2M, variable $5/MWh

Corporate-level costs

• G&A: ~$19.5M in 2024, scaling to ~$34.5M by 2027 (pre-deployment); long-term ~20% of power revenue
• Manufacturing facility capex: ~$40M by 2030
• Maintenance capex: ~10% of initial plant capital cost every 10 years
• Occupancy expense: ~5% of power revenue
• Working capital: ~4% of power revenue

• Comparable SMR/advanced nuclear peers (all larger/more expensive): X-energy (320 MWe, pre-money $1.8B at announcement), NuScale (924 MWe), NetPower (natural gas, 300 MWe). Oklo prices at $0.85B pre-money.
• Moat claims: smaller/cheaper design prevents incumbents from replicating model; owner-operator model eliminates customer capex barrier; fuel recycling capability is unique in U.S.
• Risk: no commercial fast reactor in operation today; regulatory precedent does not yet exist; technology not NRC-licensed.
• Nuclear energy analogs used for revenue model comparables: Orsted (~$40B market cap), Brookfield (~$14B), Northland Power (~$5B), Neoen (~$5B).

Team

• Jacob DeWitte: Co-Founder & CEO; PhD nuclear engineering, MIT; 15+ years nuclear; prior GE, Sandia, Urenco, US Naval Nuclear Lab.
• Caroline Cochran: Co-Founder & COO; MS nuclear engineering, MIT; 15+ years nuclear; prior Office of Secretary of Defense, DOE Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee.
• Sam Altman: Chairman since 2015; Co-Founder & CEO OpenAI; Former President Y Combinator.
• Michael Klein: Co-Founder & Chairman, Churchill Capital / M. Klein & Company.

SPAC transaction structure

• AltC (NYSE: ALCC) combines with Oklo at $850M pre-money equity value
• AltC cash-in-trust: $515.8M (as of June 30, 2023)
• Estimated cash to balance sheet after fees: ~$478M
• Total pro forma equity: $1,366M; 143M shares outstanding
• Existing Oklo shareholders: 85M shares (60%); AltC shareholders: 58M shares (40%)
• Earnout: up to 15M additional shares for Oklo shareholders vesting at $12/$14/$16 within 5 years
• No cash distributed to Oklo shareholders; 100% of net proceeds to Oklo balance sheet
• Sponsor: 100% of founder shares subject to performance vesting; 3-year staggered lock-up
• Use of proceeds: fund first Aurora deployment, manufacturing ramp, regulatory work, G&A

Archetype + why: This is a SPAC/de-SPAC deal model combined with a project-finance / infrastructure operating forecast. It is NOT a standard operating startup model. The entity has no revenue; the investment thesis is a long-dated capital deployment into a regulated utility-like asset base. The appropriate model has two layers:

1. Transaction layer (SPAC model): sources & uses, pro forma cap table, earnout waterfall, sponsor promote economics, redemption sensitivity, cash-to-balance-sheet under various redemption scenarios.
2. Operating layer (infrastructure / project-finance): unit-level plant P&L × deployment count, corporate P&L overlay, funding runway model. Mirrors how renewable energy IPP (independent power producer) models work.

Forecast horizon & granularity:

• Quarterly through 2027 (pre-revenue; tracks burn, regulatory milestones, first deployment)
• Annual 2028–2040 (ramp of plant fleet, cash flow build-up)
• Per-plant unit economics run at both 15 MWe and 50 MWe simultaneously

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Transaction / cap table:*

• Pre-money equity value: $850M
• AltC trust: $516M; shares at $10.00
• Redemption rate: 0% base case, 50% / 100% for bear/stress
• Fees & expenses: ~$38M
• Earnout thresholds: $12, $14, $16/share within 5 years of close

*Plant unit economics (15 MWe NOAK):*

• Plant capex: $24M (NOAK); $34M (FOAK)
• Initial fuel: $33M / 4,750 kg; HALEU price $7,000/kg
• Refueling: $50M total over 40 yr (2,375 kg every 10 yr)
• Annual revenue: ~$13M @ $105/MWh, 92% capacity factor
• Annual fixed opex: $2.4M (NOAK); $3.8M (FOAK)
• Annual variable opex: $5.00/MWh (NOAK); $6.00/MWh (FOAK)
• Maintenance capex: 10% of initial plant cost every 10 yr
• Cash margin (steady state): 76.4%

*Plant unit economics (50 MWe NOAK):*

• Plant capex: $61M (NOAK); $86M (FOAK)
• Initial fuel: $55M / 7,800 kg
• Refueling: $82M total over 40 yr (3,900 kg every 10 yr)
• Annual revenue: ~$36M @ $90/MWh, 92% capacity factor
• Annual fixed opex: $5.6M (NOAK); $7.2M (FOAK)
• Annual variable opex: $4.00/MWh (NOAK); $5.00/MWh (FOAK)
• Cash margin (steady state): 80.1%

*Fleet ramp (deployment count):*

• 2026: 1 plant (15 MWe, FOAK at INL)
• 2027: potential 2 additional (Southern Ohio)
• Year 2–10 ramp: deck shows illustrative Low/High deployment scenarios (charts show 0–150 units per year by Year 10, axes unlabeled precisely)
• NOAK status assumed at run-rate of ~20 units
• Ramp shape:

*Corporate cost structure:*

• G&A: $19.5M (2024) → $34.5M (2027) pre-deployment; then ~20% of power revenue
• Manufacturing facility capex: ~$40M cumulative by 2030
• Occupancy: 5% of power revenue
• Working capital: 4% of power revenue

*Fuel recycling:*

• Commercial-scale facility targeted early 2030s
• Revenue/cost impact: not quantified in deck; modeled as upside optionality toggle

*Discount rate / WACC:*

*Power price:*

Scenarios:

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Transaction summary: sources & uses, pro forma cap table, redemption sensitivity table (0/25/50/75/100% redemption → cash to balance sheet, ownership %)
2. Earnout waterfall: shares vesting at $12/$14/$16 per trigger
3. Unit economics - 15 MWe: single-plant 40-year P&L and cash flow (FOAK and NOAK versions)
4. Unit economics - 50 MWe: single-plant 40-year P&L and cash flow (FOAK and NOAK versions)
5. Fleet model: cumulative plant count by year (Low/High ramp); aggregate revenue, opex, plant capex, plant cash flow
6. Corporate P&L: fleet revenue less G&A, occupancy, working capital, manufacturing capex → corporate EBITDA and net cash flow
7. Funding runway: starting balance sheet cash post-close (~$478M), quarterly burn through first deployment, time-to-next-raise sensitivity
8. Scenario dashboard: Base / Bear / Bull toggle with key output KPIs (cash runway end date, breakeven year, NPV of fleet, IRR per plant)
9. Comps table: Oklo EV vs. NuScale, X-energy, NetPower, renewable IPPs (Orsted, Northland, Neoen) on EV/MW, EV/projected revenue