FI

Fisker Financial Model

• Hero product: Fisker Ocean - premium affordable all-electric SUV. Starting at $37,499 / $379/mo flexible lease. Anticipated Q4 2022 SOP.
• Four trim packages: Base ($37,499), Sport ($47,999), Power Sport ($59,000), Extreme ($69,900).
• Flexible "Flexee" lease: $379/mo, $2,999 drive-off, no fixed term, cancel anytime, 30,000 miles/year, includes maintenance.
• Vehicle built on VW MEB platform (negotiations ongoing as of July 2020). Prototype built by VW's Italdesign.
• Direct-to-consumer via Flexee app and 10 planned US brand experience centers.
• Future pipeline: Platform 2 (TBD), Platform 3 (TBD), Luxury Sedan (EMotion) - 9-year product plan, 8 vehicles across 3 platforms.

• Global EV fleet projected to grow at ~30% CAGR 2020–2030 (Bloomberg NEF, Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020).
• Chart shows projected global EV fleet rising from ~10M units (2020) to ~130M units (2030).
• US SUV sales mix rising vs. car sales mix declining - SUVs approaching ~50% of US auto sales by 2019.
• Fisker Ocean price range: $37k–$69k vs. comps Tesla Y ($40k–$75k), Volvo XC40 Electric (starting $50k), BMW i6 ($60k–$100k), Mercedes EQ ($70k–$90k), Jaguar I-PACE ($70k–$90k), Rivian R1S ($72k+).

• Vehicle sales: Direct-to-consumer, digital-first. ASP ranges by trim from ~$39k (Base) to ~$70k (Extreme) at 2023E.
• Flexible lease (Flexee): $379/mo subscription, $2,999 initiation, no fixed term. Revenue recognition method: Not in deck.
• Future revenue streams implied (not quantified): car sharing, ride hailing, insurance, fintech, OTA feature upgrades, trade-ins, e-commerce.
• Channels: Flexee app (primary), 10 US brand experience centers, pop-up stores.
• Manufacturing: contract (anticipated VW/Italdesign facility, European, up to 100k annual capacity).

• As of June 24, 2020:
• 25,000+ soft reservations from 118 countries (~$1.3B indicative revenue).
• 5,500+ hard orders with deposits from 32 countries (90% North America, ~$275M indicative revenue; $250 deposit, 10% refund fee = $25).
• Revenue as of presentation: $0 (pre-production, SOP anticipated Q4 2022).
• Cowen "Outperform" and Credit Suisse ratings cited on slides.
• CES 2020: Most Awarded New Automobile.

Base Package 2023E unit economics:

• Approximate Sales Price: $39,000
• Approximate Bill of Materials: ($29,000)
• Assembly, Shipping, Logistics, Warranty & Tariffs: ($8,000)
• Gross Profit: $2,000

2023E gross projected margins by trim:

• Base: 5.0%–7.5%
• Sport: 17.0%–21.0%
• Power Sport: 28.0%–32.5%
• Extreme: 29.0%–33.0%

• Profitability expected on first unit produced (due to economies of scale from OEM platform partnership).
• Cash flow positive projected in first full year of production (2023E).

• Moat claims: asset-light model (no greenfield manufacturing), VW MEB platform access (negotiations), design heritage (Henrik Fisker - BMW Z8, Aston Martin DB9, Fisker Karma), 150+ trademarks & patents globally / 20+ countries.
• Direct price/feature comparison vs. Tesla Y, Volvo XC40 Electric, BMW i6, Mercedes EQ, Jaguar I-PACE, Rivian R1S.
• Valuation benchmarked vs. Nikola (SPAC) and Tesla (IPO).
• Competitive advantages asserted: lowest price in segment, flexible lease (unique), California Mode IP, sustainable materials, digital-first ownership, no dealer network.

Team:

• Henrik Fisker - Chairman & CEO (designer BMW Z8, Aston Martin DB9, Fisker Karma)
• Stefan Krause - President & COO (ex-BMW CFO 2002–2007, ex-Deutsche Bank CFO 2008–2015, Co-Founder Canoo)
• Dr. Burkhard Huhnke - CTO (ex-VW SVP Product Innovation & E-Mobility)
• Dr. Geeta Gupta-Fisker - CFO (ex-Consensus Group, Lloyds Bank, PhD Cambridge)
• Spartan: Apollo Global Management (Geoff Strong Senior Partner, John MacWilliams Operating Partner, Joseph Romeo Principal)

Transaction / funding:

• PIPE: $500M committed common equity
• Spartan Trust: $569M (assumes no redemptions)
• Series C Investment: $50M
• Total gross proceeds to Fisker balance sheet: ~$1,040M cash
• Fees & expenses: $79M
• Pro forma equity value: $2,940M (294.0M shares at $10.00)
• Pro forma enterprise value: $1,900M ($2,940M equity – $1,040M cash, no debt)
• Existing Fisker shareholders: 59.5% (175M shares); SPAC investors 18.8%; PIPE 17.0%; Founders 4.7%
• Dual-class voting: co-founders 10:1

Development budget (pre-SOP, ~2.5 years):

• Year 1: $157M (Eng/R&D $49M, Capex $99M, Other $9M)
• Year 2: $533M (Eng/R&D $46M, Capex $314M, Other $16M)
• Year 3 (first 7 months to SOP): $770M cumulative (Eng/R&D $14M, Capex $112M, Other $14M, Working Capital $97M)
• Total pre-SOP budget: ~$770M

Use of funds: fund through SOP of Fisker Ocean Q4 2022. No further equity raise anticipated before SOP.

• Archetype + why: De-SPAC operating forecast model (EV OEM - asset-light / contract manufacturing).
• This is a de-SPAC transaction: Spartan + Fisker. The deck is structured as a SPAC investor presentation, not a VC pitch. The model must encompass (a) pro forma capitalization / sources & uses at close, (b) pre-SOP development budget burn, and (c) post-SOP operating P&L through 2025E following management projections. No accretion/dilution merger model needed (no target EPS base); SPAC economics dominate.

• Forecast horizon & granularity:
• Pre-SOP: annual by year (Year 1, 2, 3 = ~2020H2–2022Q3), capex/opex waterfall
• Post-SOP operating: annual 2022E–2025E (management projection period), matching the deck
• Monthly granularity: not warranted given pre-revenue stage and 5-year horizon; annual sufficient

• Key drivers & assumptions:

*Volume:*

• 2022E units produced: 8k (Ocean only)
• 2023E units produced: 51k (Ocean only)
• 2024E units produced: 175k (Ocean 150k, Lifestyle Pickup 25k)
• 2025E units produced: 225k (Ocean 160k, Lifestyle Pickup 45k, Sport Crossover 20k)
• EV fleet share: 0.2% (2023E), 0.6% (2024E–2025E)

*Revenue:*

• 2022E revenue: $0.6B
• 2023E revenue: $3.3B
• 2024E revenue: $10.6B
• 2025E revenue: $13.2B
• Revenue/unit 2023E: ~$64.7k blended ASP (=$3.3B / 51k units), implies mix skewed toward higher trims or lease revenue included - need to reconcile with Base $39k price; likely reflects mix assumption management has not disclosed

*Gross margin:*

• Base package gross margin 2023E: 5.0%–7.5%
• Sport 2023E: 17%–21%; Power Sport: 28%–32.5%; Extreme: 29%–33%
• Blended gross margin: ~13–18% for 2023E depending on trim mix; will need to be modelled as mix assumption
• BoM: ~$29k/unit (Base); Assembly/logistics/warranty: ~$8k/unit (Base)

*Adj. EBITDA:*

• 2022E: ~$0 (4% margin)
• 2023E: $0.441B (13% margin)
• 2024E: $2.007B (19% margin)
• 2025E: $2.760B (21% margin)

*Free cash flow* (defined as Adj. EBITDA less taxes, interest, NWC changes, capex, net lease financing):

• 2022E: ($0.3B)
• 2023E: $0.1B
• 2024E: $1.0B
• 2025E: $1.9B

*Capex / opex pre-SOP:*

• Year 1 capex: $99M; Y2 capex: $314M; Y3 (partial) capex: $112M
• Year 1 Eng/R&D: $49M; Y2: $46M; Y3: $14M
• Other (G&A, S&M, launch costs): Y1 $9M, Y2 $16M, Y3 $14M
• Working capital buffer (Y3): $97M

*SPAC / capitalization:*

• PIPE: $500M at $10/share = 50M shares
• SPAC trust: $569M = 55.2M shares
• Founders shares: 13.8M
• Existing Fisker: 175M shares
• Total shares: 294M; share price $10.00
• Warrants (out of the money, excluded): 27.6M at $11.50 strike
• Fees & expenses: $79M

*Tax rate:* 21% US federal + state blended ~25% once profitable; likely minimal in 2023E given NOL carryforwards from pre-SOP burn *Interest expense:* ~0 (no debt at close per deck) *Lease revenue accounting:* operating lease model; monthly payments recognized over term; no residual value disclosed in deck *Manufacturing cost:* variable per unit; fixed overhead covered by OEM partner; royalty/platform fee to VW not disclosed - key data gap

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: Management projections as stated (2022 SOP, trim mix skewed toward mid/high trims, VW MEB agreement executed)
• Bull: Earlier ramp (Q3 2022 SOP), faster trim mix upgrade, lease attach rate >40%, additional platform licensing revenues, VW agreement finalized on favorable terms
• Bear: SOP delays to 2023 (most likely risk per disclaimers), hard-order conversion rate lower, gross margin at low end (Base trim dominates), VW agreement fails → need alternative manufacturer (cost and timing risk)

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Transaction Overview - Sources & uses, pro forma cap table, ownership waterfall (PIPE, SPAC, founders, Fisker shareholders), warrant dilution
2. Development Budget - Pre-SOP annual capex/opex burn (Y1–Y3), cash runway vs. $1,040M proceeds
3. Unit Economics - ASP by trim, BoM, assembly costs, gross profit/unit, gross margin % by trim and blended; trim mix sensitivity
4. Revenue Build - Units by model × ASP blended (purchase vs. lease), total revenue 2022E–2025E
5. P&L - Revenue, COGS, gross profit/margin, operating expenses (R&D, S&M, G&A), Adj. EBITDA/margin, D&A (assumed), EBIT, interest, taxes, net income
6. Free Cash Flow Bridge - Adj. EBITDA → taxes → interest → NWC → capex → net lease financing → FCF
7. Valuation - EV/Revenue and EV/EBITDA at implied $1,900M EV vs. comps (Tesla, Nikola) for 2023E–2025E
8. Scenario / Sensitivity - SOP date, unit volume, trim mix, gross margin range