Olsam Financial Model

Olsam is not a product company - it is an acquisition platform. Value is created via:

1. Multiple arbitrage: buy at 2.0–4.5x SDE, exit at 10–20x (large eCommerce peer multiples).
2. Operational improvement: shared services (branding, PPC, SEO, product, back-office), demand planning, supply-chain optimisation.
3. Top-line growth: geographic expansion, brand overhaul, product line extension; target >2x growth per brand within 2–3 years.
4. Proprietary tech stack: deal-sourcing platform scanning the entire Amazon marketplace for acquisition targets.

• Amazon Marketplace GMV: $295 billion in 2020; would rank top 50 economies globally.
• 3P share of Amazon GMV: grew from 3% (1999) to >60% (2020).
• YoY growth of Amazon Marketplace: +48% vs 2019 (+$95 billion).
• >1.4 million individual 3P seller businesses on Amazon.
• >35,000 sellers with >$1m turnover across US, Germany, UK alone.
• CPG industry TAM framing: $6 trillion consumer goods GMV on Amazon (future ambition framing, not current market).
• SAM/SOM: Not explicitly defined in deck.

Olsam makes money at the portfolio company level - it owns the acquired brands outright and earns their operating profit. No SaaS/subscription or fee model.

Acquired brand P&L structure (typical, per deck):

• Net Revenue: £0.5–2m per brand
• COGS (landed cost): 20–30% of revenue
• Amazon fees (commission + fulfilment + PPC ads): 45% of revenue
• Other Opex (software, 3PL warehouse, legals): 5% of revenue
• SDE (Seller Discretionary Earnings): 20–30% of revenue

Acquisition economics:

• Entry multiple: 2.0–4.5x SDE
• Exit multiple target: 10–20x (large eCommerce comps)
• Earn-out structures used (evidenced by Peak Coffee deal).

Peak Coffee - only closed deal disclosed:

• Revenue 2019: £592k
• Revenue 2020: £954k
• Revenue growth 2019→2020: +60%
• SDE 2019: £78k
• SDE 2020: £211k
• SDE margin 2019: ~13%; 2020: ~22%
• Acquired at 3.2x SDE + earn-out
• Product rank: 2nd in market; >3,500 reviews; avg rating 4.8

No portfolio-level aggregate revenue, EBITDA, or number-of-acquisitions figures are disclosed. Deck appears to be a very early raise (August 2021, at or before first closed deal).

• No CAC/LTV framing in the deck (not a subscriber business).
• SDE margin range at acquisition: 20–30% of net revenue.
• Implied deal ROI: at 3.2x SDE entry and target 10–20x exit, gross equity return 3–6x on the SDE multiple alone, before growth.
• No hold-period, IRR, or MOIC targets disclosed.

• Named competitor / proof of concept: Thrasio (US); described as "fastest-ever profitable unicorn, latest valuation >$2 billion".
• Olsam's stated differentiators vs. other acquirers:
• "Only acquirer with true Amazon DNA" - 20+ years combined Amazon exec experience.
• Proprietary deal-sourcing tech platform.
• Established Amazon seller network for off-market deal flow.
• Traditional CPG incumbents (P&G, Unilever, Reckitt Benckiser) named as eventual disruption targets.
• No direct competitive comparison table shown.

Founders:

• Sam Hörbye (Co-founder, Ops): Programme Manager at Amazon UK (Marketplace division); co-founded and sold Beechmore Books (Amazon private label, sold 2019).
• Ollie Hörbye (Co-founder, Investments): Senior Associate at Alvarez & Marsal (PE practice); Analyst at Rothschild; MSc Finance & PE, LSE.

Other key hires:

• David Mood - Head of Investments (ex-Generation Fund, Barclays IB)
• Tommy Dai - VP Investments (ex-BAML, Discovery Corp Dev)
• Larry Bowen - Director, Brand Operations (ex-Head of Strategic Seller Accounts, Amazon UK)
• Ricky Tanner - Global Brand Manager (ex-Programme Manager, Amazon)
• Nish Uduyakumar - Head of Business Development (ex-Programme Manager, Amazon UK)
• Hugo Walker - Snr Global Brand Manager (ex-Apple EU Financial Analyst)
• Tobias Buck - Non-Executive Director (Apeiron/Elevat3 Capital; ex-Goldman Sachs, Novalpina)

Investor: Elevat3 Capital (Apeiron / Christian Angermayer); manages ~$2.5bn AUM.

• Archetype + why: Roll-up / acquisition holding company P&L model (with deal pipeline and portfolio waterfall). This is not a single-product SaaS or DTC model - it is fundamentally an M&A acquisition vehicle that owns an evolving portfolio of Amazon brands. The core drivers are: # deals closed per period, acquisition price (SDE multiple), acquired brand revenue/SDE growth, and eventual exit multiple. An integrated 3-statement model is appropriate at the HoldCo level wrapping individual brand-level P&Ls.

• Forecast horizon & granularity: 5 years (2021–2026), monthly in Year 1 (cash/deal timing matters), quarterly thereafter. Individual brand-level P&Ls fold up into a consolidated HoldCo P&L.

• Key drivers & assumptions (list each):
• Number of acquisitions per year
• Average acquisition SDE at entry
• Entry SDE multiple paid
• Revenue per acquired brand at entry
• Revenue CAGR post-acquisition per brand
• SDE margin at entry
• SDE margin improvement post-acquisition
• Amazon fee load: 45% of revenue
• COGS: 20–30% of revenue
• Other Opex per brand: 5% of revenue
• HoldCo overhead (team salaries, tech, legal)
• Acquisition financing mix (equity vs. debt)
• Earn-out liability provisions
• Exit timing and exit multiple

• Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
• Base: 4 acquisitions/year, 3.2x SDE entry, 40% revenue CAGR per brand post-acq, SDE margin 22%→28% over 3 years, exit at 12x
• Bull: 7 acquisitions/year, 3.0x entry, 60% CAGR, margin 22%→32%, debt financing layer, exit at 18x
• Bear: 2 acquisitions/year, 4.0x entry, 20% CAGR post-acq, margin stays flat at 22%, equity only, exit at 8x

• Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions dashboard - all drivers, toggle scenarios
2. Deal pipeline - acquisition schedule, price paid per deal, cumulative deployed capital
3. Brand-level P&L template - revenue, COGS, Amazon fees, other opex, SDE; one per brand, rolled up via formula
4. Portfolio roll-up P&L - consolidated revenue + SDE across all owned brands by period
5. HoldCo P&L - portfolio SDE less HoldCo overhead = HoldCo EBITDA; below-line: interest/amortisation of acquisition goodwill if relevant
6. Cash flow - operating cash (SDE less overhead), acquisition capex, earn-out payments, funding inflows
7. Balance sheet - goodwill/intangibles (acquired brand values), cash, earn-out liabilities, equity
8. Exit waterfall - IRR/MOIC at various exit multiples; sensitivity: entry multiple vs. exit multiple
9. Dashboard - portfolio KPIs: # brands, total portfolio revenue, blended SDE margin, HoldCo EBITDA, cash runway, estimated equity value