Ryse Health Financial Model
Fintech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Tech-enabled, office-based + virtual endocrinology practice focused on type 2 diabetes management.
professionals from Deloitte
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About this model
Ryse Health is a tech-enabled endocrinology practice focused on type 2 diabetes, combining physical clinics with virtual care. Its model aims to deliver specialist treatment more accessibly while using technology to support ongoing patient management.
The company initially resembles a fee-for-service physician practice, but its longer-term opportunity is value-based care with risk-sharing or per-member payments. Clinical capacity, patient outcomes, payer contracts, and care-delivery cost all shape the commercial outcome.
The model should forecast patient acquisition, active patient panels, visits, reimbursement per encounter, provider capacity, and clinic utilisation. Value-based contracts need a separate PMPM, quality-bonus, medical-cost, and risk-sharing schedule, allowing the transition from visit revenue to population-health economics to be tested.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Ryse Health
rysehealth.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Ryse Health
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Ryse Health model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
- Comprehensive, multidisciplinary care team: endocrinologists, NPs/PAs, registered dieticians (RDs), certified diabetes care & education specialists (CDCESs), licensed clinical social workers (LCSWs), and health coaches.
- Technology layer: continuous glucose monitor (CGM) integration, custom patient app for data synthesis, self-management support, and care team communication.
- Structured care protocol: 2-hour onboarding visit → 60-day intensive launch phase (frequent virtual contact, data review) → maintenance phase (quarterly A1c reviews, periodic visits) → tune-up periods as needed.
- Differentiator vs. traditional endocrinology: outcomes-focused (not CPT-code / visit-volume focused); vs. virtual-only vendors: physical presence + deeper clinical team; vs. PCP: specialist depth.
Market
- US chronic disease total economic cost: $3.7T/year; causes 1.7M deaths/year; responsible for 7 out of 10 US deaths.
- Chronic disease annual economic cost breakdown (USA, $T): Cardiovascular $1.5T, Diabetes $0.5T, Arthritis/Back Pain $0.9T, Alzheimer's $0.3T, Cancer $0.3T, Other $0.2T.
- Diabetes direct costs: $0.2T; productivity costs: $0.3T.
- US type 2 diabetes population: ~30M total.
- By responsible provider: Primary Care Physician ~20M; No Provider ~6M; Endocrinologist ~3M; Virtual-only Vendors ~1M.
Revenue model
- Primary channel: Direct patient care delivered via office-based + virtual hybrid model.
- Near-term: Implied fee-for-service / specialist practice billing (endocrinology CPT codes, though deck explicitly critiques this model as a legacy constraint for competitors).
- Long-term target: Value-based payment model (risk-sharing / outcomes-based contracts with payers).
Traction & metrics
- Glycemic control - average % time out of range (all patients): 42% at baseline → 27% at Days 47–60 (−36% relative reduction).
- Average A1c for patients with initial A1c >8: 10 at baseline → 8 post-launch (−2.0 points).
- Patient satisfaction (Day 60–90): 4.96 / 5 stars average; based on 32 total reviews (31 at 5 stars, 1 at 4 stars).
- No revenue, patient count, or growth rate numbers disclosed.
Competition / moat
- Competitive landscape framed around four provider categories, all with key limitations:
- No Provider (~6M patients): no health improvement mechanism.
- Virtual-only Vendors (~1M): low engagement sustainability, disconnected from PCPs.
- Endocrinologist (~3M): visit-volume economic model, not outcomes-oriented.
- Primary Care Physician (~20M): insufficient clinical depth.
- Ryse's moat: multidisciplinary in-person + virtual model optimized for outcomes, proprietary tech layer (CGM + app), and eventual value-based contracts that lock in payer relationships.
- No mention of specific named competitors (e.g., Virta Health, Cecelia Health).
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Richard Gurley, MBA - Co-founder & CEO: VP Payer Partnerships at Evolent Health; advisor to Doctor on Demand, Modern Fertility, Vera Whole Health; McKinsey health payer/provider practice; Tennessee government.
- Erin Kane, MD - Co-founder & CMO: Harvard and Hopkins-trained physician; led Hopkins capacity command center and GW COVID-19 remote monitoring; McKinsey management consultant.
- Antares Meketa - CTO/CPO: departing Head of Product Operations at Commure; prior CPO/CTO at Karuna Health and MeYou Health.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: Tech-enabled specialty practice P&L with value-based overlay - hybrid of a physician practice revenue model (visit/encounter-based) transitioning to per-member-per-month (PMPM) value-based contracts. Similar to Evolent Health / Oak Street model at early stage. A standard 3-statement model is appropriate, with a patient cohort waterfall driving revenue.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 5 years; monthly for Years 1–2 (practice ramp), quarterly for Years 3–5.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- Active patient panel size: Starting cohort; begin with ~50 patients (proof-of-concept DC/Baltimore launch); ramp ~20–30 new patients/month in Year 1 based on single-practice capacity.
- Care phases & visit cadence: Launch phase = 60 days intensive (higher cost); maintenance = ongoing lighter touch.
- Revenue per patient (fee-for-service phase): ~$3,000–$5,000/year per patient in Year 1–2, blended across endocrinologist visits, RD/CDCES touchpoints, CGM interpretation, and telehealth. Needs payer contract validation.
- PMPM value-based revenue (Year 3+): target payer contracts at $150–$250 PMPM (~$1,800–$3,000/patient/year); reflects outcomes savings on diabetes-related hospitalizations.
- Care team staffing cost: 1 endocrinologist + 1 NP/PA + 2 health coaches + 1 RD/CDCES + 1 LCSW per ~100–150 patients; salary benchmarks from healthcare staffing norms.
- Technology / CGM cost per patient: ~$150–$300/patient/month for CGM supplies + app infrastructure; decreases at scale.
- Patient acquisition / CAC: primarily PCP referral-based; low paid CAC initially (~$200–$500/patient) given B2B2C referral model.
- Attrition / churn: 10–15%/year for maintenance-phase patients; clinical outcomes support low churn thesis.
- Gross margin: 40–55% at steady state (labor-heavy model typical of care delivery); negative in Year 1 as team pre-hired for capacity.
- A1c improvement rate: 2.0 points average reduction - key value-based contract negotiating lever, model as clinical outcome tracker.
- Patient satisfaction (NPS proxy): 4.96/5 - supports referral flywheel assumption.
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: Single DC/Baltimore market, 150 patients by end Year 1, fee-for-service with 1 value-based pilot contract Year 3.
- Bull: Second market (new city) Year 2; payer adoption of value-based contracts Year 2; 300+ patients Year 2.
- Bear: Slow PCP referral ramp; fee-for-service only through Year 3; patients per clinician below capacity.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions sheet (all drivers above)
- Patient cohort waterfall (new patients, active patients, attrition by month)
- Revenue build (FFS revenue + PMPM value-based revenue by contract)
- Clinical staffing model (headcount plan + payroll)
- Operating expense model (tech/CGM, G&A, facilities)
- P&L (IS)
- Cash runway / burn (simplified CF - no balance sheet needed at this stage unless fundraising round modelled)
- KPI dashboard (active patients, revenue per patient, A1c outcomes, gross margin)
Frequently asked
Is the Ryse Health financial model free?+
Yes. The Ryse Health model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Ryse Health's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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