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Atmos Energy (ATO) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Atmos Energy. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Atmos Energy’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$6.94B
from $4.28B
FCF FY30
$1.44B
Margin 20.8%
Enterprise value
$20.66B
4.8× LTM revenue
Equity value
$13.18B
Net debt $7.48B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
10.2%
-10.0%baseline 10.2%40.0%
Gross margin
72.2%
5.0%baseline 72.2%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
40.0%
0.0%baseline 40.0%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Atmos Energy forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Atmos Energy Corporation's primary business?+

Atmos Energy Corporation is the largest fully regulated, pure-play natural gas distributor in the United States, serving approximately 3.4 million customers. The company operates a massive intrastate natural gas pipeline system in Texas and distributes natural gas across eight states.

How does Atmos Energy generate its revenue and earnings?+

Atmos Energy's earnings are primarily driven by an allowed return on equity applied to an expanding rate base within a regulated utility framework. The business model is highly asset-heavy and benefits from its monopoly position in regulated service territories.

What are the key capital expenditure plans for Atmos Energy?+

Atmos Energy has announced a massive $26 billion capital expenditure plan for fiscal years 2026 through 2030. This plan is almost entirely dedicated to system safety, reliability, and modernization, which adds to the rate base and earns a return.

What is Atmos Energy's typical working capital profile?+

Atmos Energy frequently operates with negative net working capital, as gas cost payables and deferred tax liabilities often offset receivables. Its net working capital as a percentage of revenue is often negative or near zero.

What is the purpose of the financial model for Atmos Energy?+

The financial model for Atmos Energy projects rate base growth, regulatory returns, and capital expenditure requirements. Its purpose is to determine the equity valuation and dividend sustainability of Atmos Energy as a pure-play regulated natural gas utility.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Atmos Energy?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for Atmos Energy is available for download. This model forecasts financial performance from FY2026 to FY2030, based on key assumptions like revenue growth and capital expenditure.

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