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Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Automatic Data Processing. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Automatic Data Processing’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$24.44B
from $18.01B
FCF FY30
$3.27B
Margin 13.4%
Enterprise value
$46.04B
2.6× LTM revenue
Equity value
$45.13B
Net debt $908.9M
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
6.3%
-10.0%baseline 6.3%40.0%
Gross margin
43.0%
5.0%baseline 43.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
3.0%
0.0%baseline 3.0%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Automatic Data Processing forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does Automatic Data Processing (ADP) do?+

Automatic Data Processing is a global provider of cloud-based human capital management solutions, payroll processing, and human resources outsourcing services. The company operates through two main segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization Services, serving clients in over 140 countries.

How does Automatic Data Processing generate its revenue?+

ADP generates revenue primarily through highly recurring subscription and transaction fees from its Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization segments. Additionally, the company earns interest on funds held for clients before remitting them to employees or tax authorities, a unique aspect of its business model.

What is the projected revenue growth rate for Automatic Data Processing in the financial model?+

The financial model projects Automatic Data Processing's revenue growth rate to be approximately 6.29%. This growth is influenced by factors such as overall employment levels, interest rate environments, and new business bookings across its service offerings.

What is the assumed capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue in the ADP financial model?+

The financial model assumes capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is 3%. This spending is largely directed towards growth initiatives and capitalized software development, rather than maintenance, reflecting the company's investment in its infrastructure and technology.

What are the key sensitivities for an equity valuation of Automatic Data Processing?+

An equity valuation of Automatic Data Processing is particularly sensitive to worksite employee growth, client retention rates, and the interest rate yields earned on client funds. These factors significantly impact the company's earnings and overall financial performance, making them critical for scenario planning.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for Automatic Data Processing is available for download. This model provides a comprehensive tool for equity valuation and scenario planning, with a forecast horizon extending from fiscal year 2026 to 2030.

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