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CSX (CSX) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for CSX. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from CSX’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$18.94B
from $14.66B
FCF FY30
$3.24B
Margin 17.1%
Enterprise value
$51.63B
3.5× LTM revenue
Equity value
$35.06B
Net debt $16.57B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
5.3%
-10.0%baseline 5.3%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
14.6%
0.0%baseline 14.6%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the CSX forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does CSX Corporation do?+

CSX Corporation is a premier Class I freight railroad operating a 20,000 route-mile network across the eastern United States and parts of Canada. It transports a broad spectrum of commodities and provides rail-to-truck transload services, connecting major population centers and industrial markets.

How does CSX Corporation generate revenue?+

CSX generates revenue primarily from its Merchandise segment, contributing 64%, followed by Intermodal at 15%, and Coal at 14%, with a smaller 7% from Trucking and Other. Its business model relies on forecasting freight volumes and pricing yields across its extensive rail network.

What is CSX Corporation's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+

CSX Corporation historically allocates 15% to 18% of its revenue to capital expenditures, amounting to $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion annually. A significant portion, 70% to 80%, is dedicated to maintenance capex for track infrastructure and rolling stock, while the remainder supports growth initiatives.

What are the key assets considered in CSX Corporation's financial valuation?+

In CSX Corporation's financial valuation, Properties (PP&E) are the dominant asset category, representing over 80% of its approximately $42 billion to $43 billion in total assets. These assets, including track structure, locomotives, and terminal facilities, have very long useful lives and are central to its asset-heavy business model.

Can I download an Excel financial model for CSX Corporation?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for CSX Corporation is available for download, covering a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030. This general corporate model is designed to evaluate the company's equity valuation and credit profile by forecasting key operational and financial metrics.

What are the primary competitive factors for CSX Corporation?+

CSX Corporation operates in a duopoly in the eastern United States alongside Norfolk Southern, which is a primary competitive factor for rail freight. The company also competes broadly with the trucking industry for intermodal and merchandise freight, influencing its market strategies.

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