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Expeditors International (EXPD) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Expeditors International. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Expeditors International’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$11.33B
from $9.30B
FCF FY30
$3.68B
Margin 32.5%
Enterprise value
$50.83B
5.5× LTM revenue
Equity value
$50.83B
Net debt $0
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
4.0%
-10.0%baseline 4.0%40.0%
Gross margin
45.0%
5.0%baseline 45.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
0.4%
0.0%baseline 0.4%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Expeditors International forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Expeditors International's business model?+

Expeditors International is an asset-light global logistics provider headquartered in Seattle, Washington. The company purchases cargo space from airlines and ocean carriers in bulk and resells it to customers, while also providing customs brokerage and supply chain management services.

How does Expeditors International generate its revenue?+

Expeditors generates revenue primarily through its Airfreight Services, Ocean Freight and Ocean Services, and Customs Brokerage and Other Services segments. For freight forwarders like Expeditors, "Net Revenue" (Gross Revenue minus the cost of transportation) is the primary metric of value creation.

What are the key assumptions in the Expeditors International financial model?+

The financial model for Expeditors International includes key assumptions such as Revenue Growth at approximately 4%, COGS as 55% of Revenue, and a Tax Rate of about 26%. Other significant assumptions cover SGA, DA, and Capex as percentages of revenue.

How does Expeditors International's working capital profile impact its cash flow?+

Expeditors International maintains a positive Net Working Capital, characterized by a DSO of 45-55 days and DPO of 35-45 days. This profile means that rapid revenue growth consumes cash because the company pays carriers slightly faster than it collects from shippers, while revenue contraction releases cash.

What is the purpose of the financial model for Expeditors International?+

The financial model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and scenario analysis framework for Expeditors International (EXPD). It enables an analyst to forecast earnings and cash flows based on global trade volumes, freight rate volatility, and the company's asset-light cost structure.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Expeditors International?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model is available for Expeditors International (EXPD). This model offers a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030, providing a detailed framework for financial analysis and valuation.

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