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Paccar (PCAR) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Paccar. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Paccar’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$52.17B
from $35.13B
FCF FY30
$6.73B
Margin 12.9%
Enterprise value
$91.13B
2.6× LTM revenue
Equity value
$91.13B
Net debt $0
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
8.2%
-10.0%baseline 8.2%40.0%
Gross margin
21.3%
5.0%baseline 21.3%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
2.3%
0.0%baseline 2.3%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Paccar forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does PACCAR do?+

PACCAR Inc is a global leader in the design, manufacture, and customer support of high-quality premium light, medium, and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The company also designs and manufactures advanced diesel and electric powertrains, provides financial services, and distributes truck parts.

What are PACCAR's main revenue streams?+

PACCAR's primary revenue streams come from its Truck segment, which involves manufacturing and distributing commercial vehicles. Significant contributions also come from its high-margin Parts segment, providing aftermarket components, and its Financial Services arm, offering financing and leasing products.

What is PACCAR's typical capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue?+

PACCAR typically allocates 2.0% to 2.5% of its revenue towards capital expenditure, amounting to approximately $700 million to $800 million annually. This investment is split, with about 40% for maintenance and 60% for growth initiatives like new truck model tooling and factory expansions.

What is the purpose of the PACCAR financial model?+

The PACCAR financial model aims to provide a sum-of-the-parts equity valuation for the company. It also includes a cyclical sensitivity analysis to determine PACCAR's fair value across various heavy-duty truck cycle scenarios.

Can I download an Excel financial model for PACCAR?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for PACCAR is available for download. This model provides a comprehensive analysis, including a sum-of-the-parts equity valuation and cyclical sensitivity analysis, with a forecast horizon from FY2026 to FY2030.

How does PACCAR manage its working capital?+

PACCAR maintains a tightly managed, typically positive net working capital profile, with Days Sales Outstanding between 25-35 days and Days Inventory Outstanding at 40-50 days. The company does not rely on negative working capital to fund its growth.

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