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Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Royal Caribbean Group. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Royal Caribbean Group’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$18.73B
from $13.90B
FCF FY30
-$8.10B
Margin -43.2%
Enterprise value
-$102.79B
-7.4× LTM revenue
Equity value
-$122.48B
Net debt $19.69B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
6.1%
-10.0%baseline 6.1%40.0%
Gross margin
5.0%
5.0%baseline 5.0%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
40.0%
0.0%baseline 40.0%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Royal Caribbean Group forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Royal Caribbean Group's primary business?+

Royal Caribbean Group is one of the world's largest cruise vacation companies, operating a global fleet of ships that travel to over 1,000 destinations. The company operates three global cruise brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises.

How does Royal Caribbean Group generate its revenue?+

Royal Caribbean Group primarily generates revenue through passenger ticket sales, which account for approximately 68% of its total revenue. The remaining revenue comes from onboard spending and other services, making up about 32%.

What is the typical capital expenditure profile for Royal Caribbean Group?+

Royal Caribbean Group's capital expenditure is highly variable, typically ranging from 15-25% of revenue, driven by its ship delivery schedule. This includes significant growth capex for new ships, alongside maintenance capex for drydocks and IT.

How does Royal Caribbean Group's working capital profile impact its cash flow?+

Royal Caribbean Group benefits from a deeply negative net working capital profile, primarily due to customers paying in advance for cruises. This structural cash flow advantage, often exceeding $6 billion in customer deposits, helps fund growth.

What is the forecast horizon for the Royal Caribbean Group financial model?+

The downloadable financial model for Royal Caribbean Group provides a forecast horizon spanning from FY2026 through FY2030. This allows for an evaluation of the company's long-term financial trajectory and debt paydown.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Royal Caribbean Group?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for Royal Caribbean Group is available for download. This model evaluates the company's equity valuation and debt paydown trajectory by forecasting capacity growth, yield expansion, and cost leverage.

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