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TJX Companies (TJX) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for TJX Companies. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from TJX Companies’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY31
$75.23B
from $54.22B
FCF FY31
$4.45B
Margin 5.9%
Enterprise value
$61.49B
1.1× LTM revenue
Equity value
$63.96B
Net debt -$2.47B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
6.8%
-10.0%baseline 6.8%40.0%
Gross margin
27.6%
5.0%baseline 27.6%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
2.6%
0.0%baseline 2.6%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the TJX Companies forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is TJX Companies' core business model?+

TJX Companies operates as the leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer globally, selling branded and designer merchandise at significant discounts. Its "treasure hunt" shopping experience drives high customer footfall, relying on opportunistic buying and rapid inventory turnover.

How does TJX Companies generate its revenue?+

TJX Companies generates revenue primarily through its physical retail stores across four main segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX International, and TJX Canada. The company's strategy of offering discounted branded merchandise encourages frequent customer visits and purchases across its over 5,000 locations.

What is the assumed revenue growth rate in the TJX Companies financial model?+

The financial model for TJX Companies assumes a revenue growth rate of approximately 6.77% over the forecast horizon from FY2027 to FY2031. This assumption is a key input for projecting the company's future sales performance.

What is TJX Companies' capital expenditure strategy?+

TJX Companies' capital expenditure is projected at approximately 2.59% of revenue in the financial model, with a historical range of 3.0% to 4.0%. This investment is roughly split between maintaining existing stores and supply chain infrastructure, and funding new store openings and distribution network upgrades.

What is the purpose of the TJX Companies financial model?+

The financial model aims to evaluate the equity valuation and store-level growth trajectory of TJX Companies. It seeks to determine if the company's off-price business model can sustain its historical premium valuation multiple amidst broader retail industry challenges.

Can I download an Excel financial model for TJX Companies?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for TJX Companies is available. This model provides a forecast horizon from FY2027 to FY2031, allowing users to analyze key financial assumptions and projections for the company.

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