Aeris Financial Model

• Three residential air purifier SKUs:
• qair lite - 2 filter options, $499 retail
• qair - 3 filter options, $999 retail
• qair one - bespoke filters, $3,500 retail
• Medical Infection Control Unit - focused suction for surgeries/oral interventions, plasma unit, Zinc Pyrithione-coated surfaces, $2,499 retail
• Aeris HVAC filter module - inline duct filtration for commercial buildings, launch Q3 2020
• afleet - cloud-based fleet management platform + mobile app bundled with hardware; drives recurring filter reorders
• Core claim: cleans 3x faster than conventional purifiers; ISO18184-certified coronavirus kill; 0 ozone; no UV technology
• Positioning: tech-forward (high CADR) + premium design vs. incumbents (Dyson, Blueair, IQair, Molekule)

• Global air purification market: $9B, growing +12% per year
• Google searches for "Air Purifier" up +50% in 2019
• Main competitor combined revenue proxy: ~$600M (Dyson, Molekule, Blueair, IQair)
• Tailwind noted: COVID driving building HVAC retrofits toward HEPA/UV, per Fast Company; dental/medical sector via ADA partnerships

Revenue streams:

1. Hardware - residential (qair lite $499 / qair $999 / qair one $3,500)
2. Hardware - medical (infection control unit $2,499)
3. Hardware - commercial/HVAC (inline duct filter module; price not stated)
4. Consumable filters - recurring; 68% of sales are recurring filter repurchases. Filter pricing not disclosed.
5. afleet SaaS / platform - commercial fleet management; pricing not disclosed

Channel split (as of May 2020):

• Direct (Amazon, webshop, JD.com): 30%
• Retail (Best Buy, Target, QVC, Home Depot, Menards, Lowe's, Lotte, Shinsegae, LaneCrawford, SOGO): 30%
• Dealer (international partners): 40%

Key retail milestone: Confirmed launch in 1,000 Best Buy stores, October 2020

• Units sold: "Over X Units Sold" - exact figure redacted in deck
• Revenue growth: +800% growth for 2020 (projected or YTD not clarified)
• Monthly sales: $X'XXXk in May 2020 - exact figure redacted
• Geographies: sold in 12 countries
• Retailers: 20+ retailers, 200+ premium locations
• Recurring revenue share: 68% recurring filter sales
• Medical pre-sales: 300+ dental clinics presold in Canada and USA
• Early milestone: First dealer partnership in China for $1.5M (2017)
• Angel investment received: $1.5M (post-founding)

• Filter attach rate / repurchase cadence: Not explicitly stated, but 68% of revenue is recurring filters; high retention attributed to app lock-in and remote tracking

• Primary competitors: Dyson, Blueair, IQair, Molekule (~$600M combined revenue)
• Aeris positioned in upper-right quadrant: high tech + strong brand
• CADR superiority claimed vs. all named competitors in large and small rooms (bar chart, no axis values)
• Competitive weaknesses of incumbents called out:
• Dyson & Blueair: residential only
• IQair: ~20-year innovation cycle
• Molekule: legal issues for misleading claims
• Moat levers: ISO certifications, proprietary filter tech, app/data lock-in, premium Swiss design, multi-segment presence (residential + medical + commercial HVAC)

Team:

• Pierre Bi - Co-Founder & CEO; M.S. MechE MIT, B.S. ETH Zurich; Bosch, BCG
• Constantin Overlack - Co-Founder & COO; M.S. & B. MechE ETH Zurich; BMW, e-car startups
• Etienne Bougeot - Design Director; multiple iF & Red Dot Design awards; DCA, GRO Design, Native Design
• KC Wong - Head of Sales Asia; 20 years in indoor air quality; IQair, AirProce
• Scott Trowbridge - Head of Sales US; VP Sales IQair, Duracell USA; 30 years US retail experience

Funding:

• Angel round: $1.5M received (post-2015 founding)
• Current raise: Amount not stated in deck

Archetype + why: DTC/Retail Consumer Hardware P&L with recurring consumable (razor-and-blade) layered on top. Three revenue streams must be modelled separately: (1) hardware unit sales by SKU, (2) filter consumable recurring revenue tied to installed base, (3) commercial/medical as a separate B2B line with longer sales cycles. The afleet SaaS component is nascent and pricing is undisclosed - model as an optional fourth line with zero contribution until disclosed.

Forecast horizon & granularity: Monthly for Year 1 (2020 scale-up); quarterly for Years 2–3 (2021–2022). Three-year total with a Year 3 run-rate for valuation purposes.

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Hardware - Residential*

• SKU mix (qair lite / qair / qair one): 60% / 30% / 10% - lite is entry-level mass retail, one is boutique; tune once unit data disclosed
• Blended ASP: ~$720 at that mix
• Unit volume: derive from +800% growth claim applied to a base; base unknown - flag as key sensitivity
• Channel mix: Direct 30% / Retail 30% / Dealer 40%
• Retail margin give-up: 40–45% wholesale discount for Best Buy / Target tier
• Dealer margin: 35–40% distributor discount

*Hardware - Medical*

• ASP: $2,499
• Launch volume: 300+ dental clinics presold; model 300 units Year 1 at 50% conversion; ramp via ADA webinar funnel
• Sales cycle: 6–8 weeks (dental/clinical procurement)

*Hardware - Commercial HVAC*

• Volume: minimal in 2020 (launch Q3 2020); ramp 2021 as COVID-driven retrofit demand grows

*Filter consumables (recurring)*

• Installed base: cumulative hardware units sold (net of churn)
• Annual filter spend per unit: 15–20% of hardware ASP per year (industry norm for HEPA filters); no deck data
• Recurring revenue share target: 68% of total revenue - use as a model sanity-check ratio, not a driver
• Retention: 85% annual repurchase rate; justification: app lock-in + remote tracking cited as retention driver

*afleet SaaS*

• $0 recognised revenue in model years 1–2; add as optional line with placeholder pricing ($X/unit/month) once commercial terms are defined

*Costs*

• COGS / gross margin: 40–50% GM on hardware (premium hardware; Swiss-engineered; mid-tier manufacturing likely in Asia); 70–75% GM on filters (consumable refill)
• CAC - Direct: $80–$150 (digital/Amazon); Retail: effectively zero direct CAC (retailer drives traffic, offset by shelf margin)
• Opex: small team (~5 named + implied ops); $3–4M annual opex at current stage scaling to $6–8M by Year 2 with US commercial build-out

Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):

• Base: +800% 2020 growth achieved; Best Buy 1,000 stores launch in Oct 2020 converts at modest sell-through; 300 dental pre-sales convert; filter attach holds at 68%
• Bull: Best Buy drives significant volume uplift; HVAC commercial segment accelerates post-COVID; medical scales beyond dental to hospitals; filter ASP and attach rate increase
• Bear: Best Buy launch delayed or underperforms sell-through; supply chain constraints limit hardware volume; medical regulatory hurdles slow clinical sales; +800% growth was YTD projection, actual falls short

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers in one tab, toggle-able
2. Revenue build - unit volume by SKU × channel × period; filter consumable on installed base; medical B2B separate
3. P&L (Income Statement) - by revenue stream; gross profit by stream; consolidated EBITDA
4. Channel economics - blended ASP net of channel discounts; contribution by channel
5. Installed base tracker - cumulative units, annual repurchase cohort, filter revenue waterfall
6. Working capital / cash flow - inventory build critical for hardware business; retailer payment terms (Best Buy Net 60–90)
7. Scenarios tab - Base / Bull / Bear toggle
8. KPI dashboard - monthly revenue, units sold, filter attach %, blended ASP, gross margin, implied LTV/CAC once inputs available