Astek Diagnostics Financial Model

• Device name: Jiddu system. Automated point-of-care device with disposable microfluidic cartridges.
• Current market focus: Urine - UTI confirmation + antibiotic sensitivity in 1 hour.
• Roadmap sample types: CSF (meningitis), effluent (surgical site infection), blood (bacteremia) - timelines 2026–2028 per roadmap.
• Hardware pricing: $10K one-time device purchase.
• Cartridge pricing: $50 per test (recurring revenue).
• Tests 5 antibiotics per run.
• Total test time: ~1 hour (35-min cultivation + 15-min detection + sample prep).
• Accuracy achieved: 96.97% on MedStar Pilot A.
• Key differentiator vs. standard urine culture: 1 hour vs. 24–72 hours; vs. dipstick: 97%+ vs. 50% accuracy.

• 8.1M UTI-caused hospital visits per year in the US.
• $1.6B annual cost from mistreated UTIs requiring hospitalisation.
• 47% of UTIs treated with inappropriate antibiotics.
• 68,000 lives lost per annum from UTI-related sepsis.
• AMR economic cost in the US: ~$55B per year.
• No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM figures with dollar market sizing presented. No market-size slide in deck.
• Comparable transaction comps imply the point-of-care diagnostics M&A market is active (purchase prices $191M–$2B for revenue-stage companies).

• Two-part razor-and-blade:

1. Device sale: $10K per Jiddu unit (one-time).
2. Cartridge sales: $50 per test cartridge (consumable, recurring).

• Distribution: plans to partner with large MedTech players for distribution while keeping R&D in-house.
• Manufacturing: outsourced to vendors (e.g., Key Tech).
• Channels: hospitals, urology clinics, VA facilities, integrated health systems (pilots with UMB, MedStar, Johns Hopkins, Halo Dx, VA, Total Urology, Rio Grande Urology, Aceso).
• No revenue recognised yet; pre-revenue / pre-FDA clearance stage.
• Target: CLIA waiver sought (to enable non-lab settings).
• Exit path: acquisition by strategic (BioMérieux, BD, Qiagen, Bio-Rad cited) post-FDA clearance.

• Pilot tests completed: 408 urine samples total.
• UMB Pilot A (Jun–Dec 2022): 150 samples, 82.00% accuracy.
• UMB Pilot B (Jan–May 2023): 208 samples, 95.60% accuracy.
• MedStar Pilot A (Jul–Sep 2023): 50 samples, 96.97% accuracy.
• MedStar Pilot B (Oct 2023–Jan 2024): 62 samples, "Alpha Verification" (accuracy TBD).
• CSF proof-of-concept: 12 samples (Henry Jackson Foundation grant).
• Effluent proof-of-concept: 12 samples (pending DOD contract).
• Blood proof-of-concept: 59 ICU patients (NSF SBIR Phase 1 grant).
• Scientific grants awarded: $1.4M (NSF, FDA, BARDA, NIH, Maryland Industrial Partnerships).
• Investor capital raised: $2.6M (from Ayana Capital, Wexford Science+Technology, TEDCO, University System of Maryland Momentum Fund, Harvard, YC, notable angels).
• Note: $2.6M investor figure does not reconcile with the redacted $XXM raised on slides 17 and 21 - the $2.6M may be the investor subset of total funding.
• Revenue: $0 (pre-commercial).

• Device ASP: $10,000.
• Cartridge ASP: $50 per test.

• Current standard: urine culture (24–72h, lab-based) and dipstick urinalysis (50% accuracy).
• Moat sources (implied from deck):
• 4 issued/pending patents covering test algorithm, fluidic cartridge, reagent mix, rapid cartridge modification.
• Clinical validation data from three academic medical centres (UMB, MedStar, Johns Hopkins).
• Platform architecture (same device, different cartridges across 4 fluid types) creates switching costs and expansion optionality.
• Advisory board with specialist clinical depth across urology, ICU, microbiology, infectious disease, regulatory.
• Accelerator/incubator validation: YCombinator, J&J JLABS.
• Named potential acquirers / strategics watching the space: BioMérieux, BD, Qiagen, Bio-Rad.

Team (slide 12):

• Mustafa Al-Adhami - CEO
• Kevin Tran - CTO
• Rick Faint - CFO
• Scott O'Brian - CCO
• Engineers, microbiologist, bioengineer, computer scientist on staff.

Advisory Board (slide 13): 10 advisors covering urology, microbiology, neurogenic diseases, family medicine, intensive care, grantsmanship, regulatory affairs, infectious diseases, ICU.

Funding ask:

• Current round: convertible notes, amount redacted [$XXM].
• Pre-money cap: redacted [$XXM].
• Discount: redacted [XX%].
• Interest rate: redacted [XX%].
• BIITC incentive: investors in first $3.6M eligible for 33% Maryland state tax refund (up to $250K per investor).
• Use of funds: reach Series A milestones - specifically Alpha Prototype (April 2024), Beta Prototype (Nov 2024), Clinical Trials (Jan 2025), FDA Clearance (April 2025).
• Prior funding total: $2.6M investor equity + $1.4M grants = $4.0M confirmed; additional pre-seed/seed tranches implied but amounts redacted.

Archetype + why: Medical device razor-and-blade P&L + pre-revenue milestone/burn model, culminating in an M&A exit valuation using revenue multiples. The company is pre-revenue and targeting acquisition post-FDA clearance rather than standalone public-market operation. The model needs to:

1. Project the device install base and cartridge pull-through to estimate revenue at and after commercialisation.
2. Track R&D/operating burn through FDA clearance (the gating event).
3. Frame an exit value using the transaction comp multiples presented in the deck.

A standard SaaS or subscription model is inappropriate; a 3-statement operating model is partially relevant but the exit/acquisition framing is the primary investor output here.

Forecast horizon & granularity:

• Pre-revenue phase (2024–2025): monthly burn/runway model through FDA clearance (April 2025 target).
• Commercial phase (2025–2027): annual P&L + revenue build (device placements + cartridge volume).
• Exit: single-year revenue run-rate × transaction comp multiple range for acquisition valuation (Year 1–2 post-FDA clearance).
• Total horizon: 2024–2028 (4–5 years), monthly for burn, annual for commercial.

Key drivers & assumptions:

*Device placement (install base):*

• Year 1 post-FDA (2025): 10 pilot/launch sites identified → 1 device per site initially = 10 devices placed; ramp to 50 in Y2, 150 in Y3 based on typical POC diagnostic rollouts.
• Device ASP: $10,000.
• Hardware gross margin: ~40–50% (outsourced manufacturing; typical for disposable-focused MedTech). No COGS data in deck.

*Cartridge volume (pull-through):*

• Tests per device per day: 5–15 (UTI is high-volume in urology/ED settings). Use 8/day base case.
• Utilisation rate: 60% of capacity = ~1,750 tests/device/year at base.
• Cartridge ASP: $50.
• Cartridge gross margin: 60–70% (microfluidic consumables industry norm).

*Revenue mix:*

• Hardware revenue declines as % of total as install base matures; consumables dominate by Year 3.

*R&D / Burn (pre-commercial):*

• Monthly burn rate: $200K–$350K during clinical trials (common for pre-Series A MedTech with 9-person team + clinical sites). Not stated in deck.
• Seed raise amount redacted; $3–5M seed round implied by milestone list (Alpha → Beta → Clinical Trials → FDA) and BIITC $3.6M threshold mention.
• Runway target: 18–24 months from seed close to FDA clearance.

*Exit valuation:*

• Transaction comp revenue multiples: Low 3.8x, Median 9.7x, Mean 19.3x, High 59.5x.
• Apply median (9.7x) and mean (19.3x) to Year 1 and Year 2 post-clearance revenue as base and bull exit scenarios.
• Acquirer set: BioMérieux, BD, Qiagen, Bio-Rad (named in deck, slide 19).

*Grant funding:*

• $1.4M received to date; additional grants (DOD contract pending, NSF SBIR Phase 2) could contribute $0.5–1.5M in non-dilutive funding - treat as offset to R&D expense.

Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):

• Base: 10 device placements at launch, 8 tests/device/day, 60% utilisation, 9.7x exit multiple on Year 2 revenue.
• Bull: 25 placements at launch, 12 tests/device/day, 80% utilisation, FDA clearance on time (April 2025), 19.3x exit multiple; additional sample types (CSF/blood) approved by 2027 adding 2nd cartridge SKU.
• Bear: FDA delay to Q3 2025, 5 placements, 4 tests/device/day, 40% utilisation, 3.8x exit multiple; seed runway extended, requiring bridge financing.

Required sheets / outputs:

1. Assumptions - all drivers in one place, clearly flagged vs..
2. Burn / Runway - monthly cash burn from model date to FDA clearance; funding sources (seed raise, grants).
3. Device Install Base - annual cohort model of device placements; cumulative installed base.
4. Revenue Build - device revenue + cartridge pull-through by cohort; total revenue by year.
5. P&L - Revenue → Gross Profit → EBITDA (R&D, S&M, G&A); pre-commercial losses, first revenue year, path to breakeven.
6. Exit Valuation - revenue × comp multiple matrix (3 multiples × 3 revenue years) → implied acquisition price range.
7. Transaction Comps - static table from slide 20 (already structured; populate directly).
8. Dashboard - KPIs: devices placed, tests/year, cartridge revenue, gross margin %, burn rate, months of runway, implied exit value at median multiple.