Alloy Financial Model
Health-tech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Telehealth + DTC subscription platform delivering menopause hormonal treatment (MHT) and holistic care to U.S. women 40+.
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About this model
Alloy is a telehealth and direct-to-consumer subscription platform for menopause hormonal treatment and holistic care for US women over 40. It combines clinician access, prescription fulfilment, and complementary wellness products.
Recurring prescription refills form the natural core relationship, with OTC supplements and membership or telehealth fees adding product depth. The business is a consumer-health cohort model where trust, retention, and compliant fulfilment are as important as acquisition.
The model should forecast subscribers, consultation conversion, prescription refill cadence, OTC attach, ARPU, and churn. CAC, clinician capacity, pharmacy fulfilment, product margin, and regulatory costs should be modelled by revenue line.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Alloy
myalloy.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Alloy
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Alloy model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
Three-pillar offering:
- Physicians - Menopause-trained, NAMS-certified doctors; medical lead Sharon Malone MD. Online medical assessment + unlimited async messaging.
- Science-based products - Bioidentical estradiol (0.5 mg), micronized progesterone, estradiol patch, vaginal estradiol cream, low-dose mini pill for perimenopause (Rx); proprietary OTC supplement(s). Delivered to door.
- Community - Monthly expert Q&A, tailored email cadences, interactive questionnaires.
Customer flow: quiz → online medical assessment → product delivery (Rx + OTC) → ongoing care + community.
Market
- 55 million women in menopause in the U.S..
- MHT global market: $39.6 billion by 2027, CAGR 7.7%.
- Adjacent markets (expansion framing only, not core TAM):
- Mental health: $225B post-pandemic US spending.
- Sexual health: $11B US, CAGR 5.2%.
- Online fitness: $24B by 2027, CAGR 33%.
- US supplement market: $45B.
Revenue model
- Rx prescription fulfillment: Patients receive branded prescription bottles (estradiol, progesterone) shipped to door. Revenue likely per-prescription or monthly subscription.
- OTC products: Proprietary supplement(s) (seen in slide 17 image - "boost your biome" type product). Sold via website.
- Telehealth / membership fee: Implied by "ongoing care / unlimited messaging" model; subscription structure assumed but not explicitly priced in deck.
- Pricing positioning: 25%–75% less than competitors.
- Channel: Direct-to-consumer, online only. National Rx shipping.
- No explicit pricing tiers, ASP, or monthly subscription fee stated in deck.
Traction & metrics
- No Alloy-specific revenue, subscriber count, or growth metrics in deck (pre-revenue / pre-launch at time of deck).
- Beta site planned live November 1.
- KAIROS portfolio context (sibling companies, not Alloy): Cera Care + Rhino + Little Spoon collective annualized revenue rose from $78M (2Q20) to $238M (2Q21); fund up 3.0x with $71M invested. These are portfolio-level proof points, not Alloy metrics.
- Milestones to validate: CAC, conversion rate.
Unit economics
- CAC: Listed as a key metric to validate post-seed. No figure given.
- Conversion rate: Listed as key metric to validate. No figure given.
- Pricing advantage cited (25%–75% below competitors) suggests intentionally low entry price; margin impact not discussed.
Competition / moat
Differentiation explicitly stated:
- Reach: Only menopause telehealth to ship Rx nationally.
- Price: 25%–75% below competitors.
- Convenience: Only end-to-end online solution (doctor + OTC + Rx) delivered to door.
Named competitors: Not identified by name in deck. Implied: other menopause telehealth / CAM supplement companies, in-person OB/GYN. Moat factors: NAMS physician certification requirement, brand authenticity, community, KAIROS portfolio operational know-how.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Medical lead: Sharon Malone, MD, ACOG, NCMP.
- Founders / CEO / COO: Not named in deck text (names not extractable from slides).
- Advisory board (in formation): Bobbi Brown (founder, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Jones Road Beauty); Phyllis E. Greenberger MSW (SVP HealthyWomen.org, former President SWHR).
- Backer: KAIROS portfolio.
- Round: Seed.
- Use of funds (implied by milestones):
- Scale team: 4 engineering, 5 marketing, 1 ops; transition in-house by Q1 2022.
- Launch brand: social + press campaigns.
- Beta site live November 1 with Rx + 1 proprietary OTC.
- Validate CAC, conversion rate, platform integration.
Recommended financial model
- Archetype + why: DTC subscription / telehealth P&L model. Alloy's revenue streams are (a) recurring Rx subscriptions - hormone refills are monthly/quarterly by nature - and (b) OTC product sales. The business is pre-revenue at seed, making a subscriber-cohort build with CAC/LTV the correct frame. A 3-statement model is premature until unit economics are validated; a contribution-margin / cohort waterfall model is the right seed-stage tool.
- Forecast horizon & granularity: 3 years (Year 1–3), monthly for Year 1 (to validate CAC and conversion targets), quarterly thereafter.
- Key drivers & assumptions:
- US menopause market: 55M women; addressable online-ready segment.
- Monthly website visitors / top-of-funnel.
- Quiz-to-assessment conversion rate.
- Assessment-to-subscriber conversion.
- Monthly Rx subscription fee.
- OTC AOV.
- Monthly Rx orders per subscriber.
- Gross margin on Rx:.
- Gross margin on OTC:.
- Physician/platform cost per consultation.
- CAC.
- Monthly churn.
- Payback period.
- Team headcount ramp: 10 hires (4 eng, 5 mktg, 1 ops); salary costs.
- Marketing spend: dominant COGS driver at launch; brand + social focus.
- Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear - which variables flex):
- Base: Mid-range CAC ($130), 2% quiz-to-subscriber conversion, 4% monthly churn, Rx ARPU $45/mo.
- Bull: Lower CAC driven by organic/community flywheel ($80), 3.5% conversion, 2% churn, ARPU $55/mo (OTC attach).
- Bear: High CAC from cold paid acquisition ($200), 1% conversion, 6% churn, pricing pressure from competitors.
- Flex variables: CAC, conversion rate, churn, ARPU, gross margin on Rx.
- Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions - all drivers centralized, color-coded inputs.
- Cohort build - monthly new subscriber cohorts × retention curve → cumulative active subscribers.
- Revenue - Rx subscription revenue + OTC revenue, split by stream.
- P&L (contribution margin focus) - Revenue → Gross Profit → S&M (CAC-based) → Contribution Margin → OpEx (team, tech, G&A) → EBITDA.
- Cash / Runway - Burn rate, cash balance vs. seed raise; months of runway.
- Unit economics summary - CAC, LTV, LTV/CAC, payback period by scenario.
- KPI dashboard - Active subscribers, MoM growth, churn, ARPU, gross margin %.
Frequently asked
Is the Alloy financial model free?+
Yes. The Alloy model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Alloy's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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