Path Financial Model
Health-tech Startup Financials (Free Excel Download)
Employer-facing care navigation and provider network for Substance Use Disorder (SUD) treatment [DECK]
professionals from Deloitte
Used by professionals from
About this model
Path provides employer-facing care navigation and a provider network for substance-use-disorder treatment. It helps self-insured employers connect employees to appropriate treatment, combining a benefits distribution model with real care-network and episode-management economics.
It is sold through PEPM or case-rate contracts. Growth depends on employer clients, covered lives, engagement, treatment episodes, provider availability, clinical outcomes, and renewal, while care utilisation can affect delivery costs differently from a pure digital benefit.
The model forecasts employer clients, covered lives, engagement, PEPM fees, treatment episodes, provider-network cost, and renewal. It includes care-navigation staffing, enterprise sales, outcomes assumptions, payer collections, gross margin, operating cash flow, cash burn, and runway.
A turnkey financial model
Live formulas, no hardcoded values
Outputs are driven by live formulas, so the workbook updates from its assumptions instead of relying on hardcoded results.
All assumptions in one tab
Inputs are clearly marked in the Assumptions tab and separated from calculations, making it clear what to change and what to leave intact.
Statements always balancing
For integrated-statement models, the balance sheet, cash flow, and supporting schedules tie through properly.
Distinct schedules for clarity
Debt, working capital, taxes, and cash flow can get messy quickly. We group calculations in clear schedules, not across disconnected tabs.
No hidden macros or external links
There are no unexplained external workbook links or macros to undermine auditability or portability.
Changes flow through the model
Update a key driver and see the impact carry through the forecast, financing, and return outputs. We never use hardcoded numbers in formulas.
About Path
path.com
How to build a detailed financial model for Path
A complete walkthrough of the business, drivers, and assumptions behind the downloadable Path model - distilled from its pitch deck and publicly available information.
Product & value proposition
Three-pillar service sold to employers:
- Care Coordination - Intercepts employees/dependents, conducts ASAM-PPC intake assessment, assigns dedicated care coordinator, provides proactive outbound support
- Addiction Certified Provider Network - Vetted board-certified SUD providers; patient seen within 48 hours of intake
- Outcomes Reporting - Longitudinal data from interception through continuum of care; provider- and patient-reported data; critical event monitoring
Value prop to employer: lower out-of-network utilization, lower relapse rates, lower healthcare cost/risk profile
Market
- Total cost of treating addiction to society: $740 billion annually
- Addressable population: 10% of employees and dependents (~21M people) have a SUD
- Only 10% of SUD sufferers currently receive treatment
- 33% of employer mental health issues are SUDs
- <30% success rate from retail rehab (incumbent solutions underperform)
- No explicit TAM/SAM/SOM breakdown or employer market sizing in deck
Revenue model
Likely model inferred from sector comparables: B2B employer benefits sold as PEPM subscription or case-rate per enrolled member
Competition / moat
Not explicitly addressed. Implied differentiation:
- Fastest access: <48-hour provider appointment vs. 2–3 week industry wait
- Evidence-based (ASAM-PPC assessment) vs. "retail rehab"
- Addiction board-certified provider network (specialty-specific vetting)
- Longitudinal outcomes data and reporting for employer
- Backers include addiction medicine, payer (BCBS), benefits (Premise Health), and large employer (Disney, Chevron, US Foods) operators
No named competitors cited.
Team & funding ask / use of funds
- Backers / advisors listed:
- Kevin Zhang, Upfront Ventures (investor)
- Joy Chudzynski PsyD, UCLA Family Health Center
- Kelly Clark MD, Immediate Past President American Society of Addiction Medicine
- Trent Haywood MD JD, frmr CMO Blue Cross Blue Shield Association
- Jonathan Leizman MD, CMO Premise Health
- Barbara Wachsman, frmr Disney
- Hassan Azar, frmr US Foods
- Amy Shannon, frmr Chevron
- Larry Leisure, Co-Founder Chicago Pacific Partners
- Howard Charney, frmr Cisco
- John Selldorff, CEO Legrand
- Samir Malik, Optum
Recommended financial model
Archetype: B2B employer benefits - PEPM (per-employee-per-month) subscription + optional case-rate or outcomes-based overlay
Why: PATH sells to self-insured employers as a benefits add-on. The universal employer digital health commercial structure is PEPM contracts multiplied by covered employee lives. Outcomes-based adjusters (shared savings on avoided ER/inpatient costs) are common in this category and align with PATH's outcomes reporting pillar.
Forecast horizon & granularity:
- 5-year annual model (Y1–Y5); Y1–Y2 monthly for cash burn visibility
- Monthly granularity needed early given B2B sales cycle length and ramp time
Key drivers & assumptions:
| Driver | Value |
|---|---|
| Employer contract wins (Y1) | 2–4 self-insured employers |
| Avg employer size (covered lives) | 5,000–10,000 lives per contract |
| Eligible SUD population | 10% of covered lives |
| Enrollment/engagement rate | 5–15% of eligible population |
| PEPM rate (all covered lives) | $2–$5 PEPM |
| Alternative: case rate per enrolled member | $1,500–$3,000 per active case |
| Gross margin | 50–65% |
| Care coordinator:patient ratio | 1:25–1:40 |
| Sales cycle | 6–12 months |
| Churn (employer) | 10–20% annually |
| Outcomes-based bonus | 10–20% of contract value at risk, returned if savings threshold met |
Scenarios (Base / Bull / Bear):
- Base: 3 employer contracts Y1, 8 Y2, 20 Y3; mid-range PEPM; 10% engagement rate
- Bull: Faster enterprise wins (Disney/Chevron-tier via advisor network); higher PEPM with outcomes kicker; above-average engagement from outbound model
- Bear: Long sales cycles push first contract to Q3 Y1; low enrollment (5%); pricing pressure from larger incumbents; burn extends runway
Required sheets / outputs:
- Assumptions dashboard (all toggleable drivers)
- Revenue build: employers × lives × PEPM (and/or case-rate overlay)
- Headcount & OpEx: care coordinators (variable with patient load), sales, clinical, tech, G&A
- P&L (monthly Y1–Y2, annual Y1–Y5)
- Cash flow & runway (when does the raise get consumed; what MRR covers burn)
- Unit economics: CAC per employer, LTV per employer, payback; per-member economics (revenue/member vs. cost-to-serve/member)
- Sensitivity table: PEPM × enrollment rate → ARR
Frequently asked
Is the Path financial model free?+
Yes. The Path model is a free Excel (.xlsx) download with live formulas. Sign up with your email and the workbook is yours to keep, review, and edit.
What's included in the model?+
A 5-year monthly forecast with P&L, cash flow and runway, valuation (exit multiple plus a DCF cross-check), MOIC/IRR returns, and unit economics, with live formulas throughout.
How was this model built?+
It was built from Path's pitch deck and publicly available information, then structured to investment-banking standards as a fully editable Excel model.
Can I change the assumptions?+
Yes. You can change assumptions and the live formulas will recalculate in the downloadable Excel model.
Have more financial modelling questions? Contact us
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