Autodesk (ADSK) Financial Forecast Calculator
Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Autodesk. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Autodesk’s most recent SEC filings.
Assumptions
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Frequently asked
What does Autodesk do?+
Autodesk is a global leader in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software, providing essential tools for professionals across architecture, manufacturing, and media. The company operates a highly profitable, subscription-based business model with over 97% recurring revenue.
How does Autodesk generate revenue?+
Autodesk generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based software model, with key segments including Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations (AECO), AutoCAD, Manufacturing, and Media & Entertainment. A recent shift to a direct-billing "new transaction model" is influencing billings timing and deferred revenue recognition.
What are the key assumptions in the Autodesk financial model?+
Key assumptions in the Autodesk financial model include a revenue growth rate of approximately 13.8% and a COGS percentage of revenue around 9.4%. Research and Development (R&D) is projected at about 25% of revenue, while Selling, General & Administrative (SGA) expenses are assumed to be around 11.6% of revenue.
How does Autodesk's working capital impact its valuation?+
Autodesk's deeply negative net working capital, resulting from collecting cash upfront for annual and multi-year subscriptions, is a significant structural advantage. This negative working capital effectively funds operations and share repurchases, positively impacting free cash flow generation and, consequently, its equity valuation.
What is the forecast horizon for the downloadable Autodesk financial model?+
The downloadable Excel financial model for Autodesk projects financial performance from fiscal year 2027 through fiscal year 2031. This model aims to assess the company's revenue, billings, and free cash flow generation.
What is the significance of Autodesk's 'new transaction model' for its financials?+
The global rollout of Autodesk's 'new transaction model,' where it bills customers directly, structurally changes billings timing and deferred revenue recognition. This transition is also expected to impact channel margin capture and long-term margin expansion, which is a key focus of the financial model.
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