Costco (COST) Financial Forecast Calculator
Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Costco. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Costco’s most recent SEC filings.
Assumptions
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Keep iterating on the Costco forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.
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Frequently asked
What is Costco's business model?+
Costco operates an international chain of membership warehouses that offer high-quality, brand-name merchandise at substantially lower prices. The company generates revenue through high-volume merchandise sales at low margins and high-margin membership fees.
How does Costco generate its revenue?+
Costco's revenue primarily comes from net merchandise sales, which account for approximately 98% of its total revenue. The remaining 2% is generated by membership fees, which contribute the vast majority of its operating profit.
What are the key capital expenditure assumptions in Costco's financial model?+
The financial model assumes Costco's capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue to be approximately 1.8%. This annual spend, estimated at $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion, is largely dedicated to growth initiatives such as new warehouses and expanding logistics networks.
What is the purpose of the Costco financial model?+
The Costco financial model provides a comprehensive equity valuation and operational forecast. Its primary purpose is to determine if the company's premium valuation multiple is justified by factors like membership fee growth, warehouse expansion, and high return on invested capital.
Can I download an Excel financial model for Costco?+
Yes, a downloadable Excel financial model for Costco is available. This model offers an operational forecast for the company from FY2026 through FY2030.
Does Costco have positive or negative net working capital?+
Costco typically operates with negative net working capital, ranging from negative 3% to negative 5% of revenue. This structure means the company sells its inventory and collects cash before paying suppliers, allowing growth to generate free cash flow from working capital.
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