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Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Keurig Dr Pepper. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Keurig Dr Pepper’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$21.20B
from $14.81B
FCF FY30
$3.31B
Margin 15.6%
Enterprise value
$51.35B
3.5× LTM revenue
Equity value
$36.31B
Net debt $15.04B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
7.4%
-10.0%baseline 7.4%40.0%
Gross margin
54.9%
5.0%baseline 54.9%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
3.1%
0.0%baseline 3.1%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Keurig Dr Pepper forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What is Keurig Dr Pepper's primary business model and product portfolio?+

Keurig Dr Pepper is a leading North American beverage company that manufactures, markets, and distributes non-alcoholic beverages and single-serve coffee systems. The company operates a unique portfolio combining high-margin carbonated soft drinks with a "razor and razor-blade" coffee model, selling brewers to drive recurring K-Cup pod sales.

What are the main revenue drivers for Keurig Dr Pepper?+

Keurig Dr Pepper's revenue is primarily driven by its U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment, which accounts for approximately 63% of revenue, and its U.S. Coffee segment, contributing about 25%. The company's "razor and razor-blade" coffee model, where brewer sales drive high-margin K-Cup pod sales, is a significant recurring revenue stream.

What is the assumed annual revenue growth rate in the Keurig Dr Pepper financial model?+

The financial model for Keurig Dr Pepper assumes an annual revenue growth rate of approximately 7.4%. This growth rate is a key input for forecasting the company's future financial performance over the FY2026–FY2030 horizon.

What is the assumed capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue in the Keurig Dr Pepper financial model?+

The financial model for Keurig Dr Pepper incorporates a capital expenditure (Capex) assumption of approximately 3.1% of revenue. This figure reflects the company's ongoing investments in manufacturing facilities, DSD distribution centers, and fleet vehicles, balancing maintenance and growth capex.

What is the primary purpose of the Keurig Dr Pepper financial model?+

The Keurig Dr Pepper financial model is designed to evaluate the company's equity valuation and credit profile. It specifically focuses on scenario analysis related to the impending $23 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's and the subsequent planned spin-off of the combined Global Coffee Co.

Can I download an Excel financial model for Keurig Dr Pepper, and what forecast period does it cover?+

Yes, an Excel financial model for Keurig Dr Pepper is available for download. This model provides a forecast horizon covering fiscal years 2026 through 2030, allowing for detailed analysis of the company's future performance.

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