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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Financial Forecast Calculator

Interactive 5-year forecast and DCF for Palo Alto Networks. Adjust revenue growth, gross margin, capex intensity, WACC, and terminal growth - see revenue, free cash flow, and enterprise value update in real time. Seeded from Palo Alto Networks’s most recent SEC filings.

Revenue FY30
$17.15B
from $6.89B
FCF FY30
$6.15B
Margin 35.9%
Enterprise value
$80.40B
11.7× LTM revenue
Equity value
$78.60B
Net debt $1.80B
Revenue & free cash flow - history and 5-year forecast
Line (area)
Bars
Historicals from SEC EDGAR (grey). Forecast years (color) update live as you move the sliders.

Assumptions

Revenue growth (annual)
20.0%
-10.0%baseline 20.0%40.0%
Gross margin
70.8%
5.0%baseline 70.8%90.0%
Capex % of revenue
3.8%
0.0%baseline 3.8%30.0%
WACC (discount rate)
9.00%
4.0%baseline 9.0%18.0%
Terminal growth
2.50%
0.0%baseline 2.5%5.0%

Need this as an Excel model?

Keep iterating on the Palo Alto Networks forecast in Excel. The downloadable sample has every assumption you see here plus a fully integrated income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, and debt schedule - five years of SEC historicals and live formulas in a fully editable workbook.

income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, brown brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, green brand palette
income_statement.xlsx
Income statement, red brand palette

Frequently asked

What does Palo Alto Networks do?+

Palo Alto Networks is a global cybersecurity leader providing network security, cloud security, and security operations solutions. The company has successfully transitioned from a legacy hardware firewall vendor into a software and cloud-centric security platform provider.

What are Palo Alto Networks' primary revenue drivers?+

Approximately 80% of Palo Alto Networks' revenue comes from its Subscription and Support segment, with the remaining 20% from Product sales. Its business model is highly recurring and subscription-based, characterized by strong deferred revenue generation.

What are the key capital expenditure assumptions for Palo Alto Networks' financial model?+

Palo Alto Networks' capital expenditure is projected at approximately 2% to 3% of revenue, split evenly between maintenance and growth capex. Major investments are planned for AI infrastructure and data center footprint to enhance proprietary threat intelligence.

Why does Palo Alto Networks have negative net working capital?+

Palo Alto Networks exhibits highly negative net working capital, typically around -30% to -40% of revenue. This is because the company collects cash upfront for multi-year subscriptions, while recognizing revenue over time, effectively funding its growth through its working capital.

Can I download a financial model for Palo Alto Networks?+

Yes, a downloadable Excel model is available to evaluate Palo Alto Networks' equity valuation and cash flow generation capacity. This model helps analysts determine if the company's transition to a platformised, recurring-revenue model justifies its premium market multiple.

How does Palo Alto Networks compete in the cybersecurity market?+

Palo Alto Networks holds a leading competitive position with approximately 9% market share in the fragmented cybersecurity industry. The company competes directly with Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, and Microsoft, and is executing a "platformisation" strategy to consolidate vendor sprawl for clients.

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